Why in news?

US President Donald Trump announced a sharp reduction in tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, claiming that India has agreed to stop buying Russian crude oil and instead increase purchases from the US and Venezuela.

While India welcomed the trade deal, it has not confirmed any commitment to halt Russian oil imports.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• India’s Official Position: Energy Security First
• Why a Complete Halt Is Unlikely?
• Russian Oil to Remain a Major Part of India’s Import Basket in the Near Term
• Replacing Russian crude with US, Venezuelan oil is difficult
• India’s Strategic and Trade Autonomy in Oil Imports

India’s Official Position: Energy Security First

• India has not publicly endorsed Trump’s claim on Russian oil.
• The MEA reiterated that energy security for 1.4 billion people remains India’s overriding priority. According to the government, India’s strategy is based on:
  • Diversification of energy sources
  • Market conditions
  • Evolving international dynamics
• No formal directive has yet been issued to Indian refiners to stop importing Russian crude.

Why a Complete Halt Is Unlikely?

• Completely stopping Russian oil imports is not feasible in the current context due to:
  • Technical challenges in quickly switching crude grades
  • Commercial constraints, including pricing and long-term contracts
  • Logistical limitations in ramping up supplies from the US and Venezuela
  • Strategic autonomy concerns in energy trade decisions
• Experts note that increasing imports from alternative suppliers is easier said than done, and cannot happen overnight.
• Strategic Autonomy and Market Realities
  • India’s energy policy has consistently aimed to balance:
    • Geopolitical pressures
    • Cost competitiveness
    • Supply reliability
  • A sudden halt to Russian oil would undermine India’s strategic autonomy and expose it to price volatility and supply risks.
  • Industry analysts expect:
    • A gradual reduction in Russian oil imports.
    • A measured increase in crude purchases from the US and other suppliers.
    • Continued emphasis on flexibility and diversification, rather than rigid alignment.
• Economic Logic: Discounts and Refining Compatibility
  • Analysts note that Russian crude remains economically critical:
    • Volumes are locked in for the next 8–10 weeks because the orders are already placed.
    • Deep discounts on Urals (Russia’s flagship crude grade)) crude relative to ICE Brent (benchmark) support margins.
    • India’s complex refining system is well-suited to Russian grades.

Russian Oil to Remain a Major Part of India’s Import Basket in the Near Term

• Indian refiners have already booked Russian crude cargoes through March and parts of April, making any abrupt cancellation impractical.
• Even if the government advises a reduction, refiners will need several months to gradually scale down purchases, given existing contracts and supply-chain constraints.
• A complete halt is especially unfeasible due to Nayara Energy, which processes about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil.
  • Rosneft, Russia’s national oil company, is a major shareholder in Nayara Energy.
  • Nayara has been sanctioned by the European Union, while Rosneft faces US and EU sanctions.
  • These sanctions have severely limited access to alternative crude sources.
• Likely Scale of Reduction: Gradual, Not Zero
  • Energy experts broadly agree that:
    • India is unlikely to reduce Russian oil imports to zero
    • Imports could fall from an average of ~1.6 million bpd in 2025 to around 500,000 bpd in the medium term
  • Even at 500,000 bpd, Russian crude would still account for ~10% of India’s total oil imports.
• Recent Trends: Decline Already Underway
  • India’s Russian oil imports have steadily declined to a three-year low, following US sanctions on major Russian producers, including Rosneft and Lukoil.
  • According to a data:
    • Imports peaked at 2.09 million bpd in June 2025
    • Fell to 1.16 million bpd in January 2026
  • Despite the decline:
    • Russian oil accounted for 22% of India’s total imports in January 2026
    • This is lower than the 35–40%+ share seen earlier, but still significant
  • This dominance is expected to continue for several months.

Replacing Russian crude with US, Venezuelan oil is difficult

• Replacing Russian crude is theoretically possible, since before the Ukraine war, Russia accounted for less than 2% of India’s oil imports.
• However, the real challenge lies in how much and how fast supplies from the United States and Venezuela can substitute Russian volumes.
• US Oil: Cost and Compatibility Constraints
  • India has been increasing oil imports from the US, and this trend can continue if prices remain competitive. However, two key constraints exist:
    • Higher transportation costs: Shipping crude from the US to India costs more than double compared to supplies from West Asia.
    • Crude quality mismatch: Indian refineries are optimised for medium-sour crude from Russia and West Asia. US crude is lighter and sweeter, making it less suitable for some refinery configurations.
    • While Indian refineries can technically process most crude types, efficiency and output vary by grade
• Venezuelan Oil: Opportunity with Limits
  • Venezuelan crude is closer in quality to Russian oil and could be a partial substitute.
  • However, limitations remain:
    • Low production: Venezuela currently produces only about 1 million bpd
    • High competition: Much of this crude is also in demand in the US
    • Long-term constraints: Meaningfully increasing output would require years and billions of dollars in investment
  • As a result, Venezuelan oil can only partially and intermittently replace Russian volumes.

India’s Strategic and Trade Autonomy in Oil Imports

• India maintained a strong stance on strategic autonomy through most of last year, despite sustained pressure from the United States under President Donald Trump to curb Russian oil purchases.
• New Delhi was unwilling to be directed on trade partners, particularly Russia—an old and key strategic partner.
• Notably, reductions in recent months occurred only after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, not due to bilateral pressure.
• A recent statement by the MEA suggests India is unlikely to change its stance on trade autonomy. Maintaining some Russian oil volumes aligns with this position and preserves flexibility in energy sourcing.

Why in news?

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, maintaining the status quo on interest rates. As a result, bank lending and deposit rates — and EMIs on home and personal loans — are expected to remain stable.

The MPC revised India’s GDP growth projection upward to 7.4% for FY 2026 (from 7.3%) and retail inflation to 2.1% (from 2%), reflecting confidence in growth momentum alongside benign price pressures.

The committee also retained a neutral policy stance, signalling flexibility to respond to evolving domestic and global conditions. This comes shortly after India announced trade agreements with the US and the European Union, and follows the Union Budget, which shaped the broader macroeconomic context.

The pause follows a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which reduced the repo rate to its current level. With cumulative rate cuts of 125 basis points in 2025, the decision marks a breather after a phase of sustained monetary easing, as the RBI balances growth support with future policy optionality.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Why the RBI Chose to Hold Interest Rates Steady?
• Impact of RBI’s Rate Pause on Lending and Deposit Rates
• The Road Ahead: RBI’s Cautious Pause Amid Global Uncertainty

Why the RBI Chose to Hold Interest Rates Steady?

• The decision by the Reserve Bank of India to pause on rates reflects a benign inflation outlook alongside strong growth momentum.
• Domestic economic conditions remain broadly resilient, giving the MPC space to wait and watch rather than act immediately.
• Budget Measures Supporting Growth
  • RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that several measures announced in the FY26 Union Budget are expected to boost economic activity.
  • These include:
    • Income tax cuts, improving household disposable income
    • GST rate rationalisation, easing cost pressures
    • Benefits of earlier RBI rate cuts, supporting credit and consumption
  • Together, these factors have strengthened the near-term growth outlook.
• External Sector: Cushion from Trade Agreements
  • Since the December policy review, India has signed four trade agreements with:
    • The United States
    • The European Union
    • Oman
    • New Zealand
  • These agreements are expected to:
    • Boost exports and investments
    • Reduce vulnerability to global uncertainties
    • Support medium- to long-term growth
  • However, the RBI flagged that global geopolitical developments and external headwinds continue to warrant close monitoring, even as the US trade deal augurs well for the economy.
• Consumption as the Main Growth Driver
  • Economic growth is being underpinned by robust consumption, projected to grow at around 7% in FY26.
  • The consumption outlook has been reinforced by:
    • Subdued inflation
    • Fiscal support measures
    • Monetary easing already delivered
  • Additionally, statistical factors, such as a low GDP deflator due to low inflation, contributed to stronger growth in the first half of the fiscal year.
• Inflation Outlook: Benign but Watched Closely
  • Headline inflation in November and December remained below the tolerance band.
  • CPI inflation projections for:
    • Q1 FY27: 4.0%
    • Q2 FY27: 4.2% (slightly revised upwards)
  • The RBI clarified that the upward revision is mainly due to higher prices of precious metals, contributing 60–70 basis points, while underlying inflation pressures remain low.

Impact of RBI’s Rate Pause on Lending and Deposit Rates

• With the repo rate unchanged, lending rates linked to external benchmarks, particularly the repo rate, are expected to remain stable in the near term.
• As a result:
  • No immediate change in EMIs for home and personal loans linked to the repo rate
  • Borrowers gain certainty over repayment obligations
• Possible Movement in MCLR-Linked Loans
  • Loans linked to the Marginal Cost of Funds-Based Lending Rate (MCLR) may still see adjustments.
  • This is because banks can revise MCLR-based rates based on:
    • Changes in funding costs
    • Liquidity conditions
    • Deposit mobilisation trends
  • Thus, MCLR-linked borrowers may experience rate changes even without a repo rate move.
• Deposit Rates to Remain Broadly Steady
  • On the deposit side:
    • Interest rates are expected to stay stable in the near term.
    • Any change would depend on sustained liquidity pressures or shifts in banks’ funding requirements.

The Road Ahead: RBI’s Cautious Pause Amid Global Uncertainty

• The Reserve Bank of India appears comfortable with a cautious, wait-and-watch stance.
• With economic growth holding firm, inflation under control, and fiscal spending providing support, there is no immediate need to alter policy rates.
• The February decision thus represents a deliberate pause rather than a shift in policy direction.
• Growth Boost from Trade Agreements
  • RBI Governor highlighted that recent and forthcoming trade agreements with the European Union and the United States are likely to sustain growth momentum over the medium term.
  • He also noted that global growth could be marginally stronger than earlier projections, supported by:
    • Rising technology investments
    • Accommodative financial conditions
    • Large-scale fiscal stimulus across major economies
• Persistent External Risks
  • Despite the positive outlook, risks remain significant:
    • Geopolitical tensions and rising trade frictions
    • Volatile crude oil prices
    • Diverging global monetary policies, as inflation remains above target in many advanced economies and central banks approach the end of easing cycles
• Fiscal–Monetary Alignment
  • With the government committed to fiscal consolidation, monetary policy is unlikely to face additional pressure.

Why in the News?

• In February 2026, the Reserve Bank of India announced a draft framework to compensate customers up to Rs. 25,000 for losses arising from small-value digital frauds, even in certain cases of user error.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Digital Payments & Fraud Risks (Background, Existing Framework, Key Features of Proposed Framework, Significance, Challenges, etc.)

Background: Growth of Digital Payments and Fraud Risks in India

• India has witnessed an unprecedented expansion in digital payments over the past decade, driven by initiatives such as UPI, Aadhaar-based authentication, and financial inclusion programmes.
• While this shift has enhanced convenience and transparency, it has also led to a rise in digital fraud cases, including phishing, OTP-based scams, unauthorised electronic transactions, and social engineering attacks.
• According to regulatory assessments, fraudsters increasingly exploit gaps in user awareness, delayed reporting, and weak authentication mechanisms.
• Senior citizens and first-time digital users are particularly vulnerable.
• This evolving risk landscape has necessitated stronger regulatory safeguards to protect customers while maintaining trust in digital payment systems.

Existing RBI Framework on Customer Liability

• The RBI first issued detailed instructions in 2017 to limit customer liability in unauthorised electronic banking transactions. These guidelines classified liability based on factors such as:

• Delay in reporting unauthorised transactions
• Negligence on the part of banks or customers
• Nature of the fraud (system failure vs. customer compromise)

• Under this regime, customers could enjoy zero or limited liability if they reported fraud promptly. However, the framework did not mandate direct compensation for small-value losses, especially in cases involving partial customer fault, such as OTP sharing under deception.
• With rapid technological changes and growing fraud sophistication, RBI reviewed the adequacy of these rules, leading to the proposed revisions.

Key Features of the Proposed RBI Compensation Framework

• The newly proposed framework seeks to introduce a structured compensation mechanism for victims of small-value digital fraud. Its major features include:

• Compensation Cap: Customers may be compensated for losses up to Rs. 25,000 per fraudulent transaction.
• Scope: The framework applies primarily to small-value digital frauds, where recovery through existing mechanisms is difficult.
• User Error Consideration: Compensation may be available even in cases where customers shared OTPs or credentials under coercion or deception, subject to conditions.
• Public Consultation: Draft instructions will be placed in the public domain to invite stakeholder feedback before finalisation.

• This approach marks a shift from a purely liability-based framework to a consumer-protection-oriented compensation model.

Additional Safety Measures for Digital Payments

• Alongside compensation, the RBI has proposed several preventive measures to reduce fraud incidence:

• Lagged Credits: Introducing time delays before crediting funds in high-risk transactions.
• Enhanced Authentication: Additional verification layers for vulnerable groups, such as senior citizens.
• Targeted Risk Profiling: Differentiated safeguards based on user behaviour and transaction patterns.

• These measures aim to balance user convenience with systemic security, especially in high-volume digital ecosystems.

Related Consumer Protection Reforms by RBI

• The compensation proposal is part of a broader regulatory push to strengthen consumer rights in financial services. The RBI has announced draft guidelines in three key areas:

• Mis-selling of Financial Products: Ensuring the suitability of third-party products sold by banks.
• Loan Recovery Practices: Harmonising rules governing recovery agents and borrower treatment.
• Customer Liability Norms: Updating rules on unauthorised electronic transactions to reflect current risks.

• Together, these reforms indicate a shift towards outcome-based consumer protection rather than procedural compliance.

Significance for India’s Digital Economy

• The proposed compensation framework is significant for several reasons:

• Trust Building: Reassures users that financial losses from fraud will not always be borne individually.
• Financial Inclusion: Encourages continued digital adoption among vulnerable populations.
• Regulatory Accountability: Places greater responsibility on banks and payment service providers to strengthen security systems.
• Global Alignment: Reflects international best practices in consumer protection for digital finance.

• For India, which aims to become a global leader in digital public infrastructure, safeguarding user confidence is critical.

Challenges and Implementation Concerns

• Despite its benefits, the framework raises certain challenges:

• Moral Hazard: Risk of reduced user caution if compensation is perceived as guaranteed.
• Operational Burden: Banks must establish clear, fast, and fair grievance redressal mechanisms.
• Fraud Classification: Differentiating genuine victims from negligent behaviour will require robust assessment protocols.

• Effective implementation will depend on clear guidelines, technological support, and coordination between banks, regulators, and law enforcement agencies.

Why in News?

• A deadly explosion in an illegally operating rat-hole coal mine in East Jaintia Hills district, Meghalaya, has resulted in the death of 25 miners.
• The incident has once again highlighted the persistence of illegal mining in the state despite a ban by the National Green Tribunal (NGT) and the Supreme Court.
• It raises serious concerns about regulatory enforcement, governance failure, labour safety, and disaster management preparedness.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Nature of the Incident
• Rat-Hole Mining - Structural and Environmental Concerns
• Legal and Administrative Dimensions
• Scale of the Illegal Mining Problem
• Challenges Highlighted
• Way Forward
• Conclusion

Nature of the Incident:

• A dynamite explosion occurred in a rat-hole mine in the Thangkso area, a remote region with poor connectivity.
• Rescue teams comprising the NDRF, SDRF, and Special Rescue Teams retrieved multiple bodies from narrow underground tunnels.
• The mine structure included -
  • Five vertical shafts (almost 100 feet deep)
  • Each shaft branching into 2–3 narrow horizontal tunnels
  • Tunnels measuring only 2 feet high and 3 feet wide, requiring miners to crawl
• Three bodies were found 350 feet horizontally inside a rat-hole tunnel.
• Rescue operations were hampered by -
  • Water accumulation
  • Mudslides due to dripping water
  • Rockfall hazards
  • Extremely confined working spaces

Rat-Hole Mining - Structural and Environmental Concerns:

• What is rat-hole mining?
  • A primitive and hazardous coal extraction method, which involves digging narrow pits and horizontal tunnels to manually extract coal.
  • It is widely prevalent in Meghalaya due to unique land ownership patterns (community/private ownership).
• Why is it problematic?
  • Because it violates the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 (MMDR Act).
  • It was banned by the NGT (2014) and the ban was upheld by the Supreme Court.
  • These violations leads to -
    • Severe environmental degradation
    • Acid mine drainage
    • Water contamination
    • Land instability
    • Loss of biodiversity
  • There is a complete absence of worker safety mechanisms.

Legal and Administrative Dimensions:

• Criminal action: Following the incident, a case FIR registered under charges that include culpable homicide, violation of the MMDR Act and the Explosive Substances Act. Two mine owners were arrested.
• Judicial oversight:
  • Justice (Retd) BP Katakey committee: Appointed by the Meghalaya High Court to monitor illegal coal-mining in the state since 2022 following a suo-motu PIL taken up by the court on the issue.
  • Findings: Flagged Widespread illegal mining in Meghalaya, particularly the East Jaintia Hills.
  • Meghalaya HC: “No one in the state, except the high court, is taking the issue very seriously”.

Scale of the Illegal Mining Problem:

• As per Justice Katakey Committee findings, over 22,000 illegal mine openings in East Jaintia Hills alone, and over 25,000 across Meghalaya.
• East Jaintia Hills was identified as the worst-affected district.
• Past tragedies: 2018 Ksan incident – 15 miners killed in flooding, Umpleng incident – 5 miners died.
• This indicates a pattern of systemic regulatory collapse rather than isolated accidents.

Challenges Highlighted:

• Governance deficit: Weak enforcement of NGT and Supreme Court orders. Lack of political and administrative will. Local complicity and informal protection networks.
• Terrain and accessibility: Remote location (25 km takes around 3 hours by road). Difficult terrain requiring 4WD vehicles. Slows both regulation and rescue.
• Informal labour exploitation: Migrant and economically vulnerable workers. Absence of safety nets or formal contracts. Occupational hazards without social security.
• Disaster management constraints: Hazardous confined spaces. Waterlogging and collapse risk. Inadequate early detection and monitoring systems.
• Constitutional and federal complexity: Meghalaya’s Sixth Schedule Community land ownership under Autonomous District Councils. Regulatory ambiguity exploited for illegal mining.
• Broader issues:
  • Sustainable Development vs livelihood concerns
  • Environmental governance and rule of law
  • Judicial activism vs executive inaction
  • Cooperative federalism in resource regulation
  • Disaster risk reduction in informal sectors
  • Internal security linkages (illegal mining networks and criminal economy)

Way Forward:

• Strict enforcement and monitoring: Real-time satellite surveillance of illegal mining. Independent regulatory authority for mining oversight. Strengthened coordination between State Government, Autonomous Councils, and Centre.
• Institutional accountability: Fix responsibility of district officials. Time-bound compliance reporting to High Court. Strengthen implementation of MMDR Act provisions.
• Formalisation of the mining sector: Introduce regulated, scientific, and environmentally compliant mining models. Alternative livelihood programs for affected communities. Skill development and employment diversification.
• Environmental restoration: Mine closure plans. Rehabilitation of degraded land and water bodies. Polluter Pays Principle implementation.
• Worker safety framework: Strict compliance with labour laws. Insurance and compensation mechanisms. Community awareness regarding occupational risks.

Conclusion:

• The Meghalaya rat-hole mining tragedy is not merely a mining accident—it is a stark reminder of the consequences of institutional apathy, regulatory failure, and socio-economic vulnerability.
• Despite judicial bans and repeated warnings, illegal mining continues unabated, turning preventable disasters into recurring tragedies.
• Ensuring environmental sustainability, worker safety, and accountable administration is not just a policy necessity but a constitutional obligation under Articles 21 and 48A of the Indian Constitution.
• Unless systemic reforms replace episodic reactions, such “incidents waiting to happen” will continue to claim lives.

Context

• The contemporary global order is marked by geopolitical rivalry, economic nationalism, and institutional uncertainty.
• Within this context, the recent breakthrough in trade negotiations between India and the European Union (EU) represents more than a commercial arrangement.
• The agreement reflects a deeper strategic convergence between two influential actors seeking stability and autonomy in a rapidly changing world.
• Rather than a narrow settlement of tariffs, the development signals the emergence of a partnership with the capacity to influence a multipolar international system and contribute to global stability.

Historical Background and Significance

• Negotiations between India and the EU extended over nearly twenty-five years, repeatedly encountering deadlock and delay.
• The prolonged process demonstrated the difficulty of aligning two complex economic systems with different regulatory traditions and development priorities.
• The eventual breakthrough indicates a shift in policy orientation on both sides.
• Economic incentives alone cannot explain the progress; broader political and geopolitical considerations now shape cooperation. The agreement therefore stands as a turning point in bilateral relations.

Role of Political Leadership and Trust

• Sustained diplomatic engagement created the conditions necessary for compromise.
• Frequent summits and high-level dialogue fostered trust and mutual understanding, allowing leaders to address domestic resistance.
• In India, policymakers moderated protectionism by presenting Europe as a reliable and diversified economic partner.
• In Europe, political guidance encouraged the bureaucracy to move beyond rigid negotiation frameworks.
• The willingness of leadership to invest political capital transformed a stalled negotiation into a workable agreement and deepened cooperation.

Geopolitical Drivers of the Agreement

• The global environment strongly influenced this development. Intensifying competition among major powers, economic pressures, and security challenges increased the need for diversified partnerships.
• Concerns about economic dependence and coercion encouraged both sides to pursue resilience through collaboration.
• The agreement therefore represents a pragmatic response to a changing international system and a collective attempt to safeguard security and long-term interests.

Key Features of India-EU Free Trade Agreement

• Expanding Beyond Trade: Defence and Security Cooperation
  • Durability requires moving beyond economic exchange. Defence and security collaboration offers a crucial foundation.
  • Shared interests in maritime routes and regional maritime order highlight the importance of the Indo-Pacific.
  • Joint exercises, information-sharing, and institutional arrangements can strengthen regional capacity-building and support a broader partnership.
  • Such measures elevate the relationship from economic cooperation to strategic alignment.
• Energy Partnership and Climate Cooperation
  • Energy policy creates another strong link. Europe’s commitment to decarbonisation intersects with India’s need for affordable development.
  • Collaboration in renewable technologies, green hydrogen, and modern infrastructure can produce mutual benefits while addressing climate challenges.
  • Shared projects encourage long-term economic interdependence and reinforce environmental responsibility.
• Technology and Innovation
  • Technological development represents the most transformative dimension of cooperation.
  • Global power increasingly depends on standards in technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and data governance.
  • Joint initiatives in innovation and digital public infrastructure can reduce vulnerability and enhance sovereignty in emerging sectors.
  • By shaping common rules, both partners can encourage progress while safeguarding democratic principles.
• Mobility and Societal Connections
  • The movement of people strengthens institutional ties.
  • Greater mobility for students, researchers, and skilled professionals expands educational exchange and supports shared mobility and knowledge networks.
  • Addressing visa barriers and professional recognition would deepen societal links and sustain interdependence beyond government-level engagement.
• Contribution to a Multipolar World Order
  • Cooperation contributes to a broader realignment in international politics. Flexible partnerships among influential actors increasingly replace rigid alliance systems.
  • By coordinating policies and supporting development initiatives, India and the EU can promote balanced growth and reinforce democratic values across regions.
  • Their collaboration may help moderate global rivalries and support a cooperative order.

Conclusion

• The trade agreement marks the beginning of a long-term transformation rather than the end of negotiations.
• Political engagement and changing global conditions enabled the breakthrough, but lasting success depends on sustained commitment in security, energy, technology, and societal exchange.
• With continued implementation, the partnership can strengthen economic growth and international cooperation.
• The agreement therefore forms a foundation for a durable strategic relationship capable of contributing to a stable and cooperative global system.

Context

• Over three decades of international negotiations have produced agreements, conferences, and declarations promising collective action against global warming.
• Yet global emissions continue to rise and the 1.5°C target grows increasingly unattainable. The paradox of global climate governance lies not in ignorance but in insufficiency.
• The international architecture, centred on the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, provides a framework for dialogue without ensuring decisive action.
• The failure emerges from structural politics, economic priorities, and social realities that privilege short-term interests over long-term planetary stability.

Institutional Structure and the Illusion of Progress

• The United Nations process operates through recurring Conferences of the Parties under the UNFCCC.
• Participation resembles voluntary engagement rather than obligation. Countries commit rhetorically while avoiding costly measures in practice. Because decisions require consensus, every nation effectively possesses a veto.
• This design promotes agreement on language but discourages enforceable action.
• Declarations frequently contain ambitious goals, yet operational provisions remain weak.
• The system therefore produces diplomatic success without environmental change.
• Instead of collapse, governance experiences drift, institutions function, negotiations continue, but effective action remains limited.
• Agreements display aspiration without accountability, creating a cycle of negotiation rather than implementation.

The Dominant Role of Politics

• National interest consistently outweighs global urgency. Political leaders operate within short electoral cycles, whereas mitigation requires long-term commitment.
• Governments therefore attempt to minimise immediate economic costs while maintaining international legitimacy.
• Climate policy becomes an exercise in managing expectations, postponing decisions, and distributing responsibility.
• Every conference is celebrated as progress even when emission trajectories remain unchanged. Such behaviour is politically rational but environmentally insufficient.
• The logic of governance prioritises stability of power over planetary stability. Consequently, ambition appears in principles while hesitation governs outcomes, reinforcing systemic inaction.

Economic Incentives and Market Behaviour

• Economic systems reinforce political hesitation. Markets reward immediate profit, whereas climate protection requires sustained investment and restraint.
• Corporations and financiers respond to present incentives rather than future consequences.
• Future generations are not economic participants and therefore lack representation within market decision-making.
• The pursuit of economic growth intensifies the conflict. Governments depend on expansion for employment and legitimacy, making restrictions on fossil-fuel use politically risky.
• As a result, economic priorities override ecological considerations. Long-term sustainability competes with short-term returns, and market behaviour consistently favours the latter.
• The system functions according to design, but the outcome undermines planetary security.

Society and Public Engagement

• Public behaviour contributes to the problem. Citizens prioritise immediate needs, employment, food, housing, and health.
• Climate change remains an abstraction until it manifests as disaster. Without sustained public pressure, policymakers face little incentive to adopt costly reforms.
• Individuals become victims of climatic impacts rather than participants in prevention. The absence of societal urgency weakens political will and reinforces delayed response.

Science and the Politics of Uncertainty

• Scientific research has already established climatic mechanisms, projected warming pathways, and identified risk.
• The barrier is not knowledge but interpretation. Remaining scientific uncertainty is used to justify postponement, diffuse responsibility, and delay decisive policy.
• The issue has shifted from scientific inquiry to strategic calculation. Evidence exists; implementation remains limited.
• The gap between scientific clarity and political behaviour illustrates the transformation of science into an instrument within political debate.

COP30 and the Gap Between Words and Action

• Recent negotiations illustrate structural limitations. Cooperation was emphasised, yet binding emission reductions were absent.
• Finance commitments lacked timelines, and required adaptation resources remained insufficient.
• Developing countries require trillions annually, while actual flows remain far lower. The loss-and-damage mechanism was operationalised but modest in scale, and technology transfer initiatives remained largely conceptual.
• Capacity-building processes expanded without corresponding funding.
• Across policy areas, the pattern persisted: new frameworks and platforms multiplied, but measurable implementation remained limited.
• Meanwhile, global emissions reached record levels, and projected warming is expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold in the early 2030s.
• The disparity between negotiated ambition and real-world outcomes widened further.

The Paradox of Necessity

• Despite structural weaknesses, the UNFCCC process remains indispensable. No alternative institution possesses comparable legitimacy, inclusivity, or legal framework.
• Smaller coalitions cannot substitute for a universal negotiating platform.
• Abandonment would reduce coordination rather than accelerate progress. The system is flawed yet necessary, slow yet irreplaceable.

Conclusion

• Global climate governance reflects a fundamental contradiction. Nations recognise the need for mitigation, cooperation, and justice, yet resist bearing immediate cost.
• Political systems seek power, markets seek profit, and societies seek livelihood, each operating according to its own logic.
• The result is persistent inadequacy rather than outright failure. Negotiations continue, commitments expand, and promises multiply, yet decisive implementation remains selective.
• Humanity may withdraw from agreements, but it cannot withdraw from planetary consequences.
• The planet imposes outcomes regardless of negotiation, reminding all actors that participation in the climate system is not optional.

About Vayu Shakti 2026:

• It is a major air combat exercise of the Indian Air Force (IAF).
• It will be held Pokaran Field Firing Range in Rajasthan’s Jaisalmer district and is expected to be the IAF’s largest air combat drill of the year.
• Almost all frontline fighter aircraft and air defence systems that were part of Operation Sindoor will be deployed during the exercise.
• These include Rafale, Su-30 MKI, Tejas, MiG-29, Jaguar, Mirage-2000 and Hawk aircraft, which will be seen engaging ground and aerial targets with precision.
• The exercise will be conducted in a simulated wartime scenario and monitored through the IAF’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), which enables real-time tracking and coordination of air operations. 

About Jagannath Temple:

• It is located in Puri, Odisha.
• It is dedicated to Lord Jagannath, a form of the Hindu deity Vishnu.
• It is believed to have been built during the reign of King Anantavarman Chodaganga Deva, of the Eastern Ganga dynasty, in the 12th century.
• However, the completion of the temple happened in 1230 AD under Anangbheema Deva III, who also installed the deities in the shrine.
• Ratha Yatra is a Hindu festival associated with Lord Jagannath temple.
• It is also one of the four sacred pilgrimage sites, known as the Chaar Dhaams, that hold great significance for Hindus.
• Architecture:
  • It is a striking example of Kalinga architecture, a distinct style prevalent in the Odisha region.
  • It is constructed in such a way that no shadow of the temple falls on the ground at any time of the day.
  • At the pinnacle of the temple, there is a 20-foot-high chakra (wheel) that is positioned in a way to be visible from any part of the city.
  • Unlike other temples of the region, the carvings on the temples are predominantly of gods and goddesses.

About SPHEREx Mission:

• The Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization and Ices Explorer (SPHEREx) telescope is a megaphone-shaped telescope.
• It is a NASA Astrophysics mission launched in 2025.
• It will survey the sky in optical as well as near-infrared light, which, though not visible to the human eye, serves as a powerful tool for answering cosmic questions.
• Over a two-year planned mission, the SPHEREx Observatory will collect data on the other galaxies along with Milky Way in order to explore the origins of the universe.
• With this capability, SPHEREx will produce a three-dimensional map of the universe.
• Scientists will use this map to answer big questions about the early universe, the history of galaxies, and the prevalence of life-sustaining molecules in planet-forming regions of space.
• It also will identify targets for more detailed study by future missions, such as NASA's James Webb Space Telescope and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope.