Context

• The global nuclear landscape today is marked by a profound contradiction. On one hand, the world has not witnessed the use of nuclear weapons since 1945, and global stockpiles have declined dramatically.
• On the other, the international nuclear order is under severe strain, as treaties weaken and geopolitical tensions rise.
• Recent actions, especially those involving the United States under President Donald Trump, threaten to undermine decades of painstaking progress. 

Achievements Under Strain

• At first glance, the evolution of nuclear governance seems impressive.
• Nuclear arsenals have fallen from 65,000 warheads in the late 1970s to fewer than 12,500 today, and the number of nuclear-armed states has stabilised at nine, far below earlier predictions.
• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has played a central role in limiting proliferation.
• Yet despite these successes, the prevailing sense is that the nuclear order is fraying.
• Once reinforced by clear norms and strong arms-control frameworks, it now faces mounting pressure from political shifts, technological competition, and eroding trust.

Ambiguity and Escalation: Trump’s Nuclear Testing Announcements

• President Trump’s October 2025 declaration that the U.S. would resume testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis with Russia and China ignited global concern.
• The ambiguity surrounding his words, whether he referred to explosive tests or systems tests, created alarm, especially given the tense strategic environment.
• His comments also revealed confusion regarding the institutional management of nuclear testing, referring incorrectly to the Department of War.
• Nevertheless, the announcement aligned with a broader pattern: all major powers are involved in nuclear modernisation, signalling a new era of destabilising technologies.
• Russia’s tests of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater nuclear drone, along with China’s advances in hypersonic glide vehicles, exemplify this shift.
• Meanwhile, the U.S. is producing new low-yield warheads, weapons widely viewed as more ‘usable’, thereby threatening the long-standing nuclear taboo.

The CTBT: A Norm Without Force

• The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), intended to prohibit all nuclear explosions, remains unenforced nearly three decades after its negotiation.
• Although 187 states have signed it, key nuclear powers, including the United States and China, have not ratified it, while Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023.
• A major flaw lies in the lack of a definition of nuclear test. The U.S. pushed for flexibility, allowing zero-yield subcritical tests and thereby creating room for differing interpretations.
• As a result, the CTBT established only a partial norm, not a fully enforceable prohibition.
• The U.S. allegation in 2019–20 that Russia and China may have conducted low-yield tests deepened mistrust, even though the CTBT’s own monitoring system found no evidence of violations.

A Renewed Arms Race and Its Global Consequences

• The world stands on the verge of a new nuclear arms race.
• The New START treaty, the last remaining U.S.–Russia arms-control agreement, will expire in February 2026, with no replacement in sight.
• Meanwhile, China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, expected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030.
• A resumption of nuclear-explosive testing, especially by the United States, would trigger cascading reactions:
  • China, having conducted only 47 tests, would gain valuable data.
  • India and Pakistan would likely resume testing to validate new designs.
  • North Korea could seize the opportunity to perfect its arsenal.
  • Other potential nuclear aspirants may view the breakdown of norms as permission to begin weapons programmes.
• Thus, the collapse of the CTBT norm risks the unravelling of the wider NPT-based non-proliferation system.

Technological Shifts and Doctrinal Uncertainty

• Emerging technologies, hypersonic missiles, dual-use unmanned platforms, low-yield warheads, and new capabilities in cyber and space domains, are reshaping nuclear strategy.
• These developments shorten decision-making time, increase the risk of misinterpretation, and blur the lines between conventional and nuclear conflict.
• In such an environment, any weakening of the nuclear taboo becomes extremely dangerous.

The Taboo and the Task Ahead

• For decades, the unwritten yet powerful rule that nuclear weapons must never be used has anchored global stability.
• But this nuclear taboo is not self-sustaining. It relies on political restraint, robust institutions, and sustained diplomatic engagement, conditions now in decline.
• The irony is stark: the United States, long the principal architect of the nuclear order, may now become the catalyst for its disintegration.
• As the UN Secretary-General warns of alarmingly high nuclear risks, the world faces a critical challenge: to rebuild and adapt the nuclear order for the fractured geopolitics of the 21st century while ensuring that the prohibition on nuclear use remains intact.

Conclusion

• The stability of the nuclear order is not guaranteed. It is the product of deliberate choices, shared norms, and cooperative frameworks that are now eroding.
• President Trump’s remarks on resuming nuclear testing highlight the fragility of the system: with each rhetorical or policy shift, the world edges closer to a renewed era of nuclear brinkmanship.
• The international community must act decisively to preserve and modernise the nuclear order. The stakes could not be higher, ensuring that nuclear weapons remain forever unused.