Why in news?

The Ministry of Home Affairs has released PRAHAAR, India’s first publicly articulated national counter-terror strategy document. The eight-page framework outlines India’s overall approach to tackling terrorism, detailing past measures, existing mechanisms, and future plans.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• What PRAHAAR Outlines?
• What Is New About PRAHAAR?
• How Does PRAHAAR Compare with Western Counter-Terror Strategies?
• Strengths and Weaknesses of PRAHAAR
• Conclusion

What PRAHAAR Outlines?

• PRAHAAR frames India’s terrorism challenge as multi-dimensional, shaped by decades of cross-border violence, global jihadist networks like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and the growing misuse of advanced technologies such as drones, encrypted platforms, dark web tools, crypto-financing, cyberattacks, and potential access to CBRNED materials.
• It avoids limiting the threat to any single region or group.
• The Seven-Pillar Response Framework
  • Intelligence-Led Prevention - Focus on proactive disruption of propaganda networks, sleeper cells, funding channels, and arms supply chains through real-time inter-agency coordination.
  • Swift and Proportionate Response - Local police-led action backed by specialised counter-terror forces to ensure rapid and calibrated operational response.
  • Capacity Aggregation - Modernisation of police forces, standardised training, and enhanced coordination across agencies to strengthen preparedness.
  • Rule of Law and Human Rights - Firm commitment to legal safeguards, due process, and protection of civil liberties while combating terrorism.
  • De-radicalisation and Community Engagement - Graded interventions targeting vulnerable groups, especially youth and women, alongside community outreach and rehabilitation efforts.
  • International Alignment - Strengthened global cooperation through intelligence sharing, legal assistance, extradition treaties, and multilateral designations.
  • Recovery and Resilience - A whole-of-society approach involving civil administration, professionals, NGOs, and communities to rebuild and enhance societal resilience.
• Guiding Principle - PRAHAAR is anchored in a political stance of zero tolerance for terrorism, while explicitly avoiding the association of terrorism with any religion or identity.

What Is New About PRAHAAR?

• Not New Tools, But a Unified Framework
  • Most mechanisms cited in PRAHAAR — such as MAC, NSG, NIA, UAPA, CAPFs, and community outreach programmes — are already operational.
  • The document does not create new agencies or confer new powers.
  • Its novelty lies in consolidating these elements into a single, publicly articulated national counter-terror strategy.
• Bringing Coherence to India’s CT Architecture
  • Previously, India’s counter-terror (CT) framework was dispersed across laws, standard operating procedures, Cabinet decisions, and state-level arrangements.
  • PRAHAAR unifies these scattered components under one national policy statement.
• Elevating Previously Implicit Elements
  • Human Rights and Rule of Law - PRAHAAR formally recognises human rights and legal safeguards as a named pillar of counter-terror policy.
  • Linking Security and Development - The strategy explicitly connects counter-terror efforts to poverty alleviation, education, housing, employment, scholarships, and women’s empowerment in vulnerable communities.
  • Clear Political Messaging - It affirms that India does not associate terrorism with any religion or community — a position that carries diplomatic significance in international forums.
  • More than introducing new powers, PRAHAAR serves as an articulation of intent, signalling to citizens and adversaries alike that India’s counter-terror approach is coordinated, comprehensive, and resolute.

How Does PRAHAAR Compare with Western Counter-Terror Strategies?

• PRAHAAR is a concise eight-page framework outlining guiding principles.
• In contrast, the US National Strategy for Counterterrorism (34 pages) and the UK’s CONTEST strategy (78 pages) provide far more detailed and operational blueprints.
• Level of Detail and Operational Clarity
  • PRAHAAR emphasises intelligence-led policing, inter-agency coordination (MAC, JTFI), roles of police and specialised forces, training, and socio-economic interventions.
  • However, it does not publicly specify agency-wise responsibilities, sub-programmes, or measurable objectives.
  • The US strategy translates broad goals into specific “lines of effort” and concrete commitments — such as tightening border screening, disrupting terror financing through anti-money laundering standards, and strengthening global CT partnerships.
  • The UK’s CONTEST framework provides detailed implementation structures, including a Counter-Terrorism Operations Centre (CTOC) and clearly defined roles for local authorities, schools, and councils under the Prevent/Protect/Prepare architecture.
• Oversight and Accountability
  • PRAHAAR stresses adherence to the rule of law but does not commit to public reporting or independent review mechanisms.
  • By contrast:
    • The US framework includes annual assessments to Congress and measurable targets.
    • The UK system operates through formal reporting lines and structured oversight across departments and local CT bodies.
• Ideological Scope
  • PRAHAAR primarily focuses on cross-border and jihadi terrorism.
  • Western strategies explicitly address a wider ideological spectrum, including extreme right-wing and hybrid forms of extremism.

Strengths and Weaknesses of PRAHAAR

• Strengths
  • Explicit rejection of religious profiling.
  • Formal recognition of human rights and rule of law as core pillars.
  • Integration of security and development approaches.
• Weaknesses
  • Limited operational detail in the public document.
  • Absence of clear oversight and measurable benchmarks.
  • Challenge of converting aspirational goals into routine practices at district and police station levels.

Conclusion

• PRAHAAR’s impact will ultimately depend on effective implementation, clear division of responsibilities, capacity-building at the grassroots, and robust coordination across agencies and states.

Why in news?

Recent observations by the Allahabad High Court have brought renewed scrutiny to the practice of “bulldozer justice” in Uttar Pradesh, where properties of individuals accused of crimes are demolished soon after allegations arise.

Critics argue that such punitive demolitions bypass the constitutional sequence of allegation, investigation, adjudication, and sanction, effectively turning executive discretion into punishment without due process.

Although the Supreme Court in 2024 issued clear directions against unlawful demolitions, their continued occurrence highlights an ongoing tension between executive action and constitutional safeguards in a democratic system.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• The Present Episode Before the Allahabad High Court
• The Court’s Guidance on Demolitions
• Larger Constitutional Implications
• A Necessary Balance Between Regulation and Rights

The Present Episode Before the Allahabad High Court

• A family from Hamirpur district approached the Allahabad High Court after authorities threatened demolition of their home and commercial property following an FIR against a relative.
• Although the petitioners were not accused, municipal notices were issued and properties sealed soon after the case was registered.
• Court’s Observations
  • Punishment Is a Judicial Function - The Division Bench noted that such demolition sequences were becoming routine and reaffirmed that punishment lies solely within the judiciary’s domain, not with administrative authorities.
  • Constitutional Questions Raised - The court framed five key questions, including whether such demolitions violate Supreme Court directives and infringe constitutional guarantees under Articles 14 (equality) and 21 (right to life and liberty).
• Legal Framework Governing Demolitions
  • Under laws such as the Uttar Pradesh Municipal Corporation Act, 1959, and the Uttar Pradesh Urban Planning and Development Act, 1973, authorities can remove unauthorised constructions.
  • However, demolition must follow due process:
    • Identification of violation
    • Written notice with grounds
    • Opportunity to respond
    • Consideration of objections
    • Reasoned order
  • Appeals and regularisation options are also available.
• Limits of Executive Power
  • Municipal laws are regulatory in nature and do not determine criminal guilt.
  • The mere registration of an FIR does not render a property illegal or justify expedited demolition.
  • Demolition is intended as a last-resort regulatory measure, not a substitute for judicial punishment.

The Court’s Guidance on Demolitions

• In Re: Directions in the Matter of Demolition of Structures (2024), the Supreme Court held that property cannot be demolished merely because its owner is accused of a crime.
• Criminal guilt must be established through proper judicial adjudication.
• Limits on Municipal Powers
  • Regulatory, Not Punitive - While municipal laws permit demolition of unauthorised constructions, these powers cannot be used as parallel instruments of punishment. Doing so would undermine the presumption of innocence and the rule of law.
  • Substance Over Form - Courts examine not just the legal authority invoked but the intent and timing of action. Demolitions issued immediately after FIRs and targeting those linked to the accused may indicate punitive intent.
• Colourable Exercise of Power
  • Using lawful municipal powers to achieve an impermissible objective — such as punishing without trial — constitutes a “colourable exercise of power.”
  • Such actions blur the separation of powers and allow the executive to impose consequences reserved for the judiciary.
  • Depriving individuals of homes or livelihoods based solely on allegations violates core constitutional principles, including due process, presumption of innocence, and separation of powers.

Larger Constitutional Implications

• The Allahabad High Court’s intervention raises critical questions about whether even the threat of demolition can violate fundamental rights, what standards should govern preventive judicial relief, and how accountability can be ensured when municipal powers are misused.
• These concerns are far from theoretical. Demolitions can cause immediate and irreversible harm to families who may later be found innocent, while also weakening public trust in fair and impartial governance.

A Necessary Balance Between Regulation and Rights

• Enforcing Law Within Constitutional Limits - Urban authorities must enforce building regulations to maintain order. However, such powers must operate strictly within constitutional boundaries and administrative neutrality.
• Due Process as a Constitutional Safeguard - The Constitution protects individuals from deprivation of property without lawful procedure — including notice, hearing, a reasoned decision, and judicial oversight. Demolition before adjudication reverses this process and undermines due process.
• Distinguishing Regulation from Punishment - Bulldozers serve a legitimate purpose in urban governance, not as tools to determine guilt. When regulatory powers are used punitively, they become legally unsustainable and threaten the rule of law.

Why in the News?

• India and Israel elevated their ties to a “Special Strategic Partnership” and signed 17 pacts during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2026 visit to Israel.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• India-Israel Bilateral Relationship (Background, Defence & Security, Agriculture & Water Management, Trade, Innovations & Technology)
• PM Modi’s Visit to Israel (Key Outcomes of the Visit)

India-Israel Bilateral Relationship

• India and Israel established full diplomatic relations in 1992. For several decades prior to that, engagement was limited due to India’s support for the Palestinian cause and the geopolitical realities of the Cold War era.
• However, after the end of the Cold War and the launch of India’s economic liberalisation, ties expanded steadily.
• A major turning point came in 2017, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to undertake a standalone bilateral visit to Israel. During that visit, the relationship was elevated to a “Strategic Partnership.”

Defence and Security Cooperation

• Defence cooperation forms the backbone of India-Israel relations. Israel is one of India’s top defence suppliers, particularly in advanced technologies such as missile systems, UAVs, radar systems and border surveillance equipment.
• The two countries share strong intelligence cooperation and have consistently expressed a common position against terrorism.
• Counter-terrorism collaboration has intensified over the years, reflecting shared security concerns.

Agriculture and Water Management

• Agricultural cooperation has emerged as a model of practical partnership.
• Israel has supported the establishment of multiple Centres of Excellence in Indian states, focusing on horticulture, micro-irrigation, and precision farming. These initiatives have helped Indian farmers improve productivity and water-use efficiency.
• Water conservation, drip irrigation, and desert farming technologies are key areas where Israel’s expertise has benefited India.

Trade, Innovation and Technology

• Bilateral trade has diversified beyond defence to include diamonds, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and high-technology sectors.
• From US$ 200 million in 1992 (comprising primarily of diamonds), merchandise trade has diversified and reached a peak of US$ 10.77 billion (excluding defence) in FY 2022-23.
• In FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, the bilateral trade (excluding defence) was US$ 6.53 billion and US$3.75 billion, respectively, witnessing a decline due to the regional security situation and trade route disruption.
• Innovation and start-ups have become a major area of cooperation. Israel’s reputation as a “Start-Up Nation” complements India’s large digital ecosystem. Joint research initiatives, academic exchanges, and innovation funds have strengthened knowledge partnerships.

Convergence in West Asia

• India and Israel share increasing strategic convergence in West Asia. While India continues to maintain balanced relations with Arab countries and Iran, its engagement with Israel has become more open and multidimensional.
• India’s large diaspora presence and energy security interests in the Gulf region make regional stability a key concern. Both countries view peace and stability as essential for long-term development.

Key Outcomes of PM Modi’s 2026 Visit

• Prime Minister Modi’s 2026 visit marked a new phase in bilateral ties. The two countries elevated their relationship to a “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity.”
• Overall, 27 outcomes were announced, including 17 pacts across multiple sectors.

Technology and Emerging Domains

• Technology was central to the visit. A Critical and Emerging Technologies Partnership was launched, covering artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, cybersecurity, and critical minerals.
• An Indo-Israel Cyber Centre of Excellence will be established in India.
• The Joint Commission on Science and Technology was elevated to the ministerial level.
• An MoU on geophysical exploration was signed to enhance cooperation in mineral exploration using advanced geophysical and AI technologies, with a focus on sustainable development.

Defence and Counter-Terrorism

• Both sides acknowledged the significant expansion of defence cooperation and laid out a roadmap for joint development, joint production and transfer of technology.
• The joint statement strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including cross-border terrorism.

Trade and Economic Cooperation

• The leaders noted progress in negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement and directed officials to work towards its early conclusion.
• An agreement was reached for the use of India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in Israel, expanding digital public infrastructure cooperation.
• Cooperation was also expanded in digital health, civil nuclear energy, space, and financial dialogue mechanisms.

Agriculture and Rural Development

• India set a target of expanding Centres of Excellence to 100 and moving towards creating “Villages of Excellence” to bring Israeli agricultural technology directly to Indian villages.
• An India-Israel Innovation Centre for Agriculture will support research and future-ready farming solutions.

Connectivity and Regional Cooperation

• The two sides agreed to work closely on the India-Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the I2U2 initiative.
• Regional tensions, including developments involving Iran and the United States, were discussed. PM Modi reiterated India’s belief in dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflicts, noting that India’s security interests are directly linked to peace and stability in West Asia.

Why in News?

• The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing a new series of National Accounts Statistics (NAS) with 2022–23 as the base year, replacing the 2011–12 base year.
• The revised series aims to provide a more accurate and granular measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA).

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Why the New GDP Series Matters?
• Key Structural Changes
• Better Measurement of Household Sector
• Integration of New Data Sources
• Improved Consumption Estimates
• Financial Sector Improvements
• Informal Sector and Agriculture
• Major Methodological Upgrade - Double Deflation
• Possible Impact
• Challenges and Way Forward
• Conclusion

Why the New GDP Series Matters?

• Updating the economic structure: Since the last revision in 2015, India’s economy has undergone major transformations. For example,
  • Expansion of digital economy and e-commerce
  • Increased formalisation due to GST
  • Changes in consumption and employment patterns
  • Growth of financial and services sectors
• Updating the base year ensures: Better measurement of real economic growth, improved sectoral representation, and reliable policy formulation.

Key Structural Changes:

• Base year revision: The base year updated from 2011–12 to 2022–23, reflecting current economic structure, and improving comparability across time.
• Improved sector-wise measurement:
  • Private corporate sector: Old method: Entire company’s GVA allocated to the dominant sector. New method: Activity-wise revenue share approach. Captures sectoral contributions more accurately.
  • General government sector: New inclusions are housing services provided to government employees. Better coverage of autonomous bodies, local governments. This improves measurement of government output.

Better Measurement of Household Sector:

• The household sector, a major contributor to India’s economy, will now be estimated more accurately.
• Improved data sources: Annual use of Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE), and Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). Earlier, data was extrapolated, but direct annual estimation now.

Improved Consumption Estimates:

• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) will be estimated using -
  • Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys
  • Production data
  • Administrative datasets
• This improves measurement of domestic demand, and consumption-driven growth.

Integration of New Data Sources:

• GST data: Expanded use of Goods and Services Tax (GST) data, which will be applied for -
  • Regional output estimation
  • Corporate value addition measurement
  • Identification of active companies
• Impact: Better measurement of formal economy, and reduced estimation errors.

Financial Sector Improvements:

• Banking sector: The new series will use the Statistical Table Related to Banks in India (STRBI) published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to estimate the activity of both public sector banks as well as private sector banks.
• NBFC sector:
  • The earlier proxy-based approach to estimate the activity of private Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) is being replaced by the use of actual financial data of NBFCs from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs.
  • Result will be improved financial sector GVA estimates.

Informal Sector and Agriculture:

• Better coverage of informal sector:
  • Enhanced use of ASUSE data captures insurance agents’ activity, informal enterprises, and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in the unincorporated sector.
  • Significance: Better representation of India’s informal economy.
• Agriculture sector improvements:
  • Updated methodologies and datasets based on studies by -
    • Inland Grassland and Fodder Research Institute
    • Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute
    • Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute
    • Agricultural Development and Rural Transformation Centre
  • Impact: Improved estimation of livestock, fisheries, and fodder production.

Major Methodological Upgrade - Double Deflation:

• Old system - Single deflator method:
  • Same inflation rate applied to inputs, and outputs, resulting in overestimation when input prices fall slower than output prices, and underestimation when input prices rise faster.
  • Example: Real GDP growth in 2025 possibly overstated due to this method.
• New system - Double deflator method:
  • Separate inflation adjustment for inputs, and outputs, resulting in more accurate real GVA and GDP, sector-specific deflators, and reduced growth distortions.
  • Significance: Major statistical reform in GDP estimation.
• Integration with Supply and Use Tables (SUT):
  • SUT will be integrated into national accounts. They show production sources, imports, intermediate consumption, final consumption, and exports.
  • Benefits: Reduced statistical discrepancy, and improved consistency between production approach, and expenditure approach.
• Data improvements from States: Enhanced reporting by States includes local bodies, and autonomous institutions, resulting in increased direct estimation, and reduced imputation.
• Release timeline:
  • The new series of national accounts data to be released on February 27, 2026.
  • However, it will take almost a year to get a ‘back series’ that shows GDP data for years before 2022-23 as per the new GDP series.

Possible Impact:

• On growth estimates:
  • GDP revisions may raise growth estimates in some years, lower estimates in others.
  • Previous revision (2015): 2013–14 growth revised from 4.7% from ~6.4–6.9%
  • New revision: May change recent growth estimates significantly.
• International statistical standards:
  • The 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008) – the international statistical standard for national accounts data – is currently being used by India and other countries to compile GDP.
  • Last year, the United Nations Statistical Commission adopted an updated version of these norms, called SNA 2025.
  • India plans to shift to SNA 2025 in its next base year revision.

Challenges and Way Forward:

• Statistical challenges: Complexity of double deflation, large data integration requirements, and back-series reconstruction difficulties.
  • Statistical reforms: Regular base-year revisions (every 5 years), faster release of back-series data, and improved administrative data integration.
• Institutional challenges: State-level data quality variations, informal sector measurement gaps, and data lag from surveys.
  • Institutional measures: Strengthen State statistical systems, improve survey frequency, and enhance digital data collection.
• Credibility issues: Past GDP revisions triggered debates, and there is the need for transparency in methodology.
  • Global alignment: Timely adoption of SNA 2025, and improved international comparability.

Conclusion:

• The 2022–23 GDP base-year revision marks one of the most significant statistical upgrades in India’s national accounts in over a decade.
• If implemented transparently and updated regularly, the revised GDP framework will strengthen evidence-based policymaking and international confidence in India’s economic statistics.

Context

• Three years ago, at the start of India’s G20 presidency, critical minerals were not central to strategic policy.
• Minerals such as lithium remained classified as atomic minerals, restricting private participation.
• Recent policy reforms and the Union Budget mark a decisive transformation: critical minerals are now integral to India’s industrial strategy, energy transition, and geopolitical positioning.
• The national focus has shifted from policy formulation to large-scale execution, emphasising speed, depth, and technological capability. 

The Policy Shift: From Peripheral Concern to Strategic Priority

• Emergence of a Comprehensive Framework
  • India has established a structured framework to strengthen mineral security.
  • A list of 30 critical minerals has been identified, royalty rates rationalised, and private exploration liberalised.
  • In January 2025, the government launched the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) with a ₹16,300 crore outlay, signalling long-term commitment.
  • This framework places India among countries pursuing resource resilience through coordinated planning and investment.
• The Execution Challenge
  • Despite policy clarity, execution remains complex. Mineral discovery and development require sustained capital and long gestation periods.
  • More critically, global processing capacity is highly concentrated, with China controlling up to 90% for several key minerals.
  • This dominance creates vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
  • Therefore, India’s strategy must extend beyond mining to strengthening domestic refining, value addition, and downstream integration.

India’s Existing Capabilities and Industrial Potential

• According to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, domestic industries already produce high-purity copper, graphite, rare earth oxides, tin, and titanium, often exceeding 99.9% purity.
• These capabilities demonstrate technical competence in high-purity processing.
• However, production volumes remain limited and largely oriented toward conventional industries.
• Meeting the demands of clean technologies, defence manufacturing, and advanced electronics requires technological upgrading, capacity expansion, and deeper refining.
• Established strengths in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and textiles provide transferable skills for scaling complex mineral processing.

Priority Areas for Effective Implementation

• Creating Domestic Demand for Processed Minerals
  • Budget 2026 advances implementation by removing import duties on capital goods used in mineral processing, easing the burden of high capex investements.
  • Yet investor confidence depends primarily on assured domestic demand.
  • Government initiatives promoting electric vehicles, batteries, solar modules, and wind turbines create an opportunity for backward integration, but delays increase uncertainty for midstream processors.
  • Expanding the deployment of domestically manufactured clean technologies would stimulate demand for processed minerals, strengthen upstream mining, and deepen industrial ecosystems.
• Adopting an AI-First Approach to Exploration
  • The NCMM targets 1,200 exploration projects by FY2031, supported by tax deductions for exploration expenditure on nine critical minerals, including previously restricted elements such as beryllium, tantalum, lithium, and niobium.
  • Exploration, however, remains inherently risky and capital-intensive.
  • An AI-first approach can significantly enhance prospectivity analysis and reduce uncertainty.
  • Aligning the IndiaAI Mission, the National Geospatial Policy, and Mission Anveshan can strengthen the use of geospatial analytics and seismic AI tools.
• Leveraging Geopolitical Disruption for Technological Sovereignty
  • The weaponisation of rare earth magnets and battery supply chains in 2025 exposed systemic fragility in global industrial networks.
  • India’s initiatives, including rare earth corridors and reduced import duties on monazite sands, reflect efforts to build technological sovereignty.
  • To succeed, states must utilise existing infrastructure and skilled manpower to serve global markets, generate employment, and strengthen regional economies.

The Importance of International Partnerships

• Domestic reforms must be complemented by strategic global engagement.
• India should deepen partnerships with technologically advanced countries such as Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and European nations.
• These countries possess advanced mineral processing and component manufacturing expertise.
• Encouraging firms from these regions to establish operations in India will require regulatory certainty, strong legal safeguards, research collaboration, and predictable market access.
• Institutional mechanisms such as the India-European Union Free Trade Agreement provide a framework for structured cooperation.
• Financial incentives, including the ₹7,280 crore scheme for rare earth permanent magnets, must be supported by long-term stability and transparent governance to foster durable international collaboration.

Conclusion

• India’s repositioning of critical minerals marks a structural shift in its development strategy.
• By prioritising mineral security, expanding domestic processing, encouraging demand creation, adopting AI-driven exploration, and strengthening global partnerships, India aims to build a resilient and integrated ecosystem.
• Sustained inter-ministerial coordination, proactive state leadership, and technological advancement will determine success.
• In a volatile global environment, leadership in critical minerals will depend not only on resource availability but on coherent execution, innovation, and strategic foresight.

Context

• It was the best of times; it was the worst of times,” wrote Charles Dickens in A Tale of Two Cities.
• The phrase captures India’s economic trajectory between 2014 and 2025, a period marked by visible prosperity alongside deepening distress.
• While narratives of growth and declining inequality dominate public discourse, patterns of income mobility, vulnerability, and distributional change reveal a more complex reality.
• The dominant trend over the decade points toward rising downward mobility, uneven upward mobility, and persistent structural inequality shaped by caste, religion, and geography.

Understanding Income Mobility: Concept and Method

• Defining Mobility
  • Households are grouped into three categories based on 2014 per capita income: top 10 percent, next 40 percent, and bottom 50 percent.
  • Mobility is measured relative to this benchmark: movement upward, downward, or remaining unchanged. This framework captures shifts in economic position rather than isolated income levels.
• Data and Periodisation
  • The analysis relies on real per capita income data from the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (2014–2025), structured as a balanced panel.
  • The decade is divided into two phases, 2014–19 and 2019–24, to assess shifts around the 2019 general election.
  • This approach enables assessment of longitudinal trends, election cycles, and structural shifts.

National Trends: A Tilt Toward Decline

• Downward mobility nearly doubled from 14 percent in 2015 to 26.8 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, the proportion of households remaining in the same income group fell from over 70 percent to below half.
• Although upward mobility rose from 14.1 percent to 23.5 percent, it consistently lagged behind decline. By 2025, more than one in four households were worse off relative to 2014.
• The balance of movement increasingly favoured descent rather than ascent, reflecting growing economic insecurity, fragile household resilience, and widening income dispersion.
• The pattern suggests that aggregate growth has not translated into broad-based progress.

Rural–Urban Divide: Uneven Gains

• Rural India: Persistent Vulnerability
  • Rural areas experienced sharper deterioration. By 2025, nearly 29 percent of rural households had slipped below their 2014 income rank.
  • The steepest fall occurred during 2014–19, with continued instability thereafter. Limited diversification, dependence on agriculture, and stress in the informal sector intensified rural fragility.
• Urban India: Relative Advantage, Limited Assurance
  • Urban households fared relatively better, with stronger upward mobility and slower increases in decline.
  • Yet downward mobility rose steadily even in cities. Gains were concentrated in specific sectors and regions, reinforcing regional disparities.
  • Urban advantage did not eliminate volatility; it merely moderated it.

Caste as a Structural Determinant of Mobility

• Downward mobility increased across all caste groups, with sharper rises among OBC and SC households.
• By 2025, roughly a quarter or more of these households were worse off than in 2014.
• Upward mobility improved for Unreserved groups and OBCs but remained limited for SC households, reflecting constrained social mobility and reduced access to asset ownership and quality education.
• Scheduled Tribes displayed comparatively lower downward mobility and occasional stronger upward gains, possibly linked to targeted interventions.

Religious Inequalities in Mobility

• Downward mobility rose among all major religious groups, with pronounced increases among Hindu and Muslim households.
• Upward mobility grew more steadily for Sikh and Christian households in earlier years, though momentum weakened later.
• Muslim households exhibited weaker upward mobility relative to Hindus, indicating barriers to economic ascent.
• The pattern reflects constraints rooted in discrimination, limited opportunity expansion, and uneven access to employment networks.

Political and Economic Turning Points and The Broader Implications

• Political and Economic Turning Points
  • The 2019 general election consolidated power for the Bharatiya Janata Party, marking a decisive political moment. Soon after, the COVID-19 crisis generated widespread humanitarian and economic disruption.
  • Prolonged stress in agriculture and informal employment weakened recovery, exposing limited policy responsiveness and gaps in social protection.
  • The absence of a coherent strategy to revive employment-intensive sectors slowed upward income shifts.
• The Broader Implications: Mobility and Social Stability
  • An economy where downward mobility outpaces upward movement risks eroding social stability. When inequality solidifies into reduced mobility, aspiration yields to frustration.
  • Visible affluence among a minority contrasts sharply with expanding precarity among vulnerable groups.
  • Static poverty metrics fail to capture this churn; mobility analysis reveals lived volatility and growing distributional stress.

Conclusion

• Between 2014 and 2025, India’s economic landscape combined expansion with regression. Downward mobility rose more sharply than upward mobility, particularly in rural areas and among historically marginalised communities.
• Caste, religion, geography, and local inequality continue to shape economic life chances.
• Sustainable progress requires strengthening public health, expanding employment-intensive growth, investing in education, and reinforcing social protection.
• Addressing discrimination is integral to restoring mobility and renewing faith in economic progress.
• Without reversing entrenched inequality, the promise of upward mobility will remain uneven, fragile, and uncertain.