Why in news?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) celebrated its 150th anniversary on January 15, 2025.

What’s in today’s article?

• India Meteorological Department (IMD)
• Improvements in Forecasting by IMD
• Towards Zero-Error Forecasting by IMD
• From Forecasting to Weather Management

India Meteorological Department (IMD)

• About
  • The IMD is a government agency that is responsible for weather forecasting, seismology, and meteorological observations.
  • It was established in 1875 and is headquartered in New Delhi.
  • The IMD has hundreds of observation stations across India and is the country's National Meteorological Service.
• Mandate: The IMD's mandate includes:
  • Observations: Taking meteorological observations
  • Forecasting: Providing current and forecast information for weather-dependent activities
  • Warnings: Giving warnings against severe weather phenomena
  • Statistics: Providing met-related statistics
  • Research: Engaging in research
• Nodal Ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Indian Government

Improvements in Forecasting by IMD

• Enhanced Observation Network from 2014-2024
  • Doppler Weather Radars: Increased from 15 to 39
  • Automatic Weather Stations: Increased from 675 to 1,208.
  • High Wind Speed Recorders: Increased from 19 to 37.
  • Rainfall Monitoring Stations: Increased from 3,995 to 6,095.
• Introduction of New Systems:
  • Seven automated weather observing systems.
  • Heliport weather observing systems.
• Satellite Monitoring:
  • Two geostationary satellites, INSAT 3DR and 3DS, monitor weather round-the-clock (replacing INSAT 3D in 2014).
• Improved Weather Model Resolution
  • Medium-range forecast resolution improved from 25 km to 12 km.
    • Better resolution enables forecasting for smaller areas with greater accuracy (12 km x 12 km grids).
• Significant Gains in Forecast Accuracy
  • Heatwave Prediction: 95% accuracy up to two days in advance (compared to 50% in 2014).
  • Thunderstorm Detection: Hourly detection accuracy improved to 86% (from 50% in 2017).
  • Heavy Rainfall Prediction: Accuracy up to three days in advance increased to 78% (from 50% a decade ago).
  • Cyclone Track Prediction: Accuracy improved by 35-40%, leading to zero loss of human lives.

Towards Zero-Error Forecasting by IMD

• Vision Document 2047
  • Objective: To make India climate-smart and weather-ready by 2047, the centenary year of independence.
  • Roadmap: Upgradation of IMD’s capabilities over the next two, five, 10, and 22 years.
• Forecast Accuracy Goals
  • Zero-Error Block-Level Forecasts:
    • Aim: Accurate severe weather predictions up to three days in advance by 2047.
  • Accuracy Targets for Extended Forecasts:
    • Five-day advance forecasts: 90% accuracy.
    • Weekly forecasts: 80% accuracy.
    • 10-day advance forecasts: 70% accuracy.
• Enhanced Monitoring and Warnings
• Goal: Eliminate human fatalities from severe weather events within 20 years.
• Improved Weather Model Resolution
  • Current resolution: 12 km.
  • Target resolution: 5-6 km for hyper-localised weather forecasts at the village panchayat level.

From Forecasting to Weather Management

• Transitioning to Weather Management
  • IMD aims to evolve from a weather forecaster to a weather manager, focusing on managing rain, hail, and fog, which cause significant disruptions.
  • Mission Mausam, inaugurated by PM Modi, lays the foundation for weather modification and management.
• Key Initiatives under Mission Mausam
  • Cloud Chamber at IITM, Pune:
    • First-of-its-kind in India.
    • Aims to enhance understanding of cloud physics.
    • Focus on perfecting cloud seeding to modify precipitation through human interventions.
• Advanced Observation Systems
  • Technological Innovations:
    • Use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), automated weather stations, and IoT-based sensors for data collection in remote areas.
    • Establishment of regional climate reference stations and smaller Meteorological (Met) centres.
  • Upper Atmosphere Monitoring:
    • Round-the-clock monitoring at 100 km x 100 km grids using satellites, aircraft-based profilers, radars, and wind profilers.
• Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy
  • Goal: 100% detection capabilities for all weather phenomena.
  • Improved data collection and analysis to minimise forecasting errors and enhance weather model performance.