Context

• China recently held its first trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, following a similar May meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• These China-led trilaterals aim to boost regional cooperation and revive Pakistan’s role in regional dynamics.
• Strategically, Beijing is leveraging India’s tense relations with Bangladesh and growing footprint in Afghanistan to counter New Delhi’s influence and divert its attention.

A War That Redefined Regional Alignments

• The 1962 India-China war shaped lasting regional dynamics. Post-war, China found a strategic ally in Pakistan to contain India and safeguard its own geopolitical interests.
• China-Pakistan Strategic Bond
  • Pakistan views China as a reliable partner for economic and military support.
  • By the end of 2024, Pakistan owed China over $29 billion, and over 80% of its arms imports were Chinese in origin.
• China's Diplomatic Shielding
  • China has repeatedly shielded Pakistan-backed terrorists at the UN and other platforms, solidifying their alliance beyond bilateral trade and defense.
• Operation Sindoor and Recent Tensions
  • During India’s Operation Sindoor in May 2025—retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack—China criticized India’s response as “regrettable” and pushed for dialogue.
  • It endorsed Pakistan’s call for an investigation instead.
  • The conflict saw Pakistan deploying Chinese-made equipment—from radars, drones, and missiles to fighter jets—underscoring Beijing’s deep military support.
• Post-Conflict Diplomacy and Trilateral Outreach
  • Soon after the escalation, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister met his Chinese counterpart to reaffirm their “iron-clad friendship.”
  • The subsequent trilateral meetings with Afghanistan and others are seen as a diplomatic extension of that bond.

Resurfacing an Old Strategy

• The China-Pakistan “plus one” strategy—using third countries to isolate India—is not new.
• As early as 1965, Pakistan considered using East Pakistan, China, and Nepal to sever India from its Siliguri Corridor.
• The idea appears to be reviving, especially as both Beijing and Rawalpindi confront a confident and assertive India.
• India’s Assertive Posture
  • India’s retaliatory strikes post-Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2025) show a decisive shift from past restraint.
    • No tolerance for nuclear blackmail
    • Indus Waters Treaty suspended, trade halted, port access restricted
    • Military strikes have weakened Pakistan’s operational confidence
    • Diplomatically, India has worked to isolate Pakistan globally
• Stiff Pushback Against China
• India’s response to Chinese aggression in Doklam and Galwan surprised Beijing.
• It included:
  • Increased cooperation with like-minded democracies
  • Expanded presence in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia
• Diplomatic outreach by India has slowed China’s regional influence.
• Shifting Regional Ties
  • India’s pragmatic diplomacy is undermining Chinese momentum in South Asia:
    • Maldives: President Muizzu, once anti-India, has turned to Delhi to save the economy.
    • Nepal: Despite signing BRI agreements, funding disputes stall progress.
    • Sri Lanka: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake visited India before China.
    • Bangladesh: Despite tensions, India allowed trilateral energy cooperation with Nepal.

China's Strategic Trilateral Push

• China’s trilateral meetings with Afghanistan and Bangladesh aim to:
  • Reclaim influence post-regime changes in 2021 (Afghanistan) and 2024 (Bangladesh)
  • Offset India’s deepening ties with the Taliban
  • Reinforce Pakistan’s relevance in the region
• Potential Security Threats
  • China-backed Pakistan is using historic linkages with Bangladesh and Afghanistan to:
    • Foster cross-border terrorism.
    • Distract India with security threats.
    • Undermine India's neighbourhood influence, opening space for Chinese BRI investments and geostrategic dominance.

China – The Primary Strategic Challenge

• Recent regional shifts reaffirm that China—not Pakistan—is India’s most formidable challenge.
• Beijing is leveraging its growing influence and alliance with Pakistan to counter India’s rising confidence and regional outreach.
• Trilateral Nexus as a Geopolitical Tool
  • China views the trilateral mechanism as a way to undermine India’s diplomacy and distract it with fresh security and political challenges, especially as India builds regional consensus against terrorism.

Conclusion

• South Asian countries now face the difficult task of balancing between India and China, as Beijing uses Islamabad as a proxy to complicate India’s strategic environment and expand its regional footprint.
• India must continue to:
  • Assert its redlines clearly
  • Warn neighbours of consequences—economic, military, and political
  • Deter misadventures through visible and credible retaliatory strategies