Context

• The geopolitical landscape of West Asia has undergone a seismic shift following the bombing of Iran by Israel and the United States.
• It effectively dismantles Iran’s strategic influence, leaving Israel as the unchallenged military hegemon in the region.
• The silence of traditional allies like Russia and China, despite their strategic agreements with Iran, signifies a calculated withdrawal rather than helplessness.
• These global powers made a conscious choice to let Iran be isolated, a development that recasts alliances, power balances, and future conflict trajectories across West Asia.

The Trajectory of West Asia Post Israel-Iran Conflict

• The Uncontested Dominance of Israel
  • With Iran’s nuclear capabilities neutralised, Israel now stands as the sole dominant nuclear power in West Asia.
  • This new order is reinforced by the presence of 40,000 U.S. troops and an expansive network of American military assets throughout the region.
  • The aim is clear: prevent any resurgence of military threats to Israel, thereby sealing a new regional architecture.
  • Initially, Iran’s assertive ideological and military posturing had alarmed both Israel and the Gulf countries.
  • The latter, in response, often compromised on broader regional issues, such as the Palestinian cause, while quietly strengthening ties with both Israel and the U.S.
  • The Abraham Accords, facilitating normalisation between Israel and Gulf states, were a byproduct of this tactical alignment.
• Iran’s Existential Crisis and Dangerous Escalation
  • The airstrikes on Iran have pushed its leadership to the brink.
  • The response, targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq, represents not just a retaliatory act, but a desperate signal of resilience.
  • Iran claims it acted proportionately, mirroring the number of bombs used by the U.S. on its nuclear sites.
  • However, this response also involved violating the territorial sovereignty of a ‘brotherly’ Gulf nation, Qatar, thereby heightening regional instability.
  • For Iran, the stakes are existential. Its leadership believes that the ultimate goal of the U.S.-Israel alliance is regime change, an end to its theological system of governance and the suppression of its ideological influence in the region.
  • Unlike past interventions, however, there is no obvious ‘alternative regime’ waiting in the wings.
  • The vacuum that could emerge from an Iranian collapse threatens to mirror the chaos of Iraq and Libya, spawning terrorism, civil wars, and global insecurity.
  • The Gulf countries, now partly complicit in isolating Iran, must act decisively to prevent a wider regional breakdown that could spiral into another wave of extremism and instability.

The Illusion of Stability and Next Brewing Conflict

• A Ceasefire and the Illusion of Stability
  • In a surprising turn, the U.S. called for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, a move seen by many as a rare moment of strategic restraint.
  • This pause allows Iran to de-escalate without appearing weak, and also reveals that even American and Israeli assets are not invincible.
  • The Iranian strike on American bases likely triggered U.S. pressure on Israel to pause its offensive.
  • It is a timely reminder to Gulf states that proximity to power does not translate to immunity.
  • This temporary cessation in hostilities also revives focus on the Iran nuclear deal. Both Tehran and Washington may now be willing to re-engage diplomatically.
  • Gulf countries, who have long marginalised Iran, must now support any diplomatic revival, not as a gesture of goodwill, but as a critical strategy for regional survival.
• The Next Crisis: Palestine and the ‘Eretz Israel’ Vision
  • Even as the Iran-Israel conflict cools, a new flashpoint is emerging.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, empowered by the defeat of Iran’s regional network and emboldened by unwavering U.S. support, is on course to realise his vision of ‘Eretz Israel’ a Greater Israel extending from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.
  • This dream includes the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank, as evident from maps Netanyahu has brandished before the UN General Assembly.
  • The annexation, expected before the 2026 U.S. elections, is supported by Netanyahu’s ultra-right allies like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
  • With no effective resistance left among Palestinians or their supporters, Israel now faces a crucial choice: become an apartheid state, denying equal rights to Palestinians, or embrace a binational democracy that upholds equal citizenship.
  • Historical patterns suggest the former is more likely, institutionalised inequality for the sake of preserving Israel’s Jewish identity.

Gulf States’ Dilemma and India’s Diplomacy

• Gulf States: Between Normalisation and Moral Abdication
  • The Gulf countries, despite their rhetorical posturing, have largely abandoned the Palestinian cause.
  • Their muted opposition to Israeli actions, whether in Gaza or the West Bank, has become the price for peace, stability, and access to Western markets.
  • While they may believe annexation will bring lasting peace, the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Palestinian territories, with over 56,000 killed in Gaza, countless displaced, and a growing settler encroachment in the West Bank, signals otherwise.
  • Their strategy of disengagement may soon backfire, threatening their own legitimacy and stability.
• India’s Quiet Diplomacy
  • India, as expected, has adopted a cautious and non-interventionist stance and It has refrained from condemning Israel’s strikes or siding with Iran.
  • While India shares deep ties with Israel, including during India’s own Operation Sindoor, it also has vital interests in Iran, particularly the Chabahar port project.
  • India's measured call for ‘de-escalation’ mirrors the advice it often receives during its own border conflicts. It reflects a diplomatic realism where neutrality and pragmatism trump moral clarity.
  • This policy underscores a broader international trend: a world order where legality, morality, or sovereignty matter less than stability and transactional alliances.
  • For India, navigating these contradictions will be crucial to maintaining its strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarised West Asia.

Conclusion

• With Iran weakened, Israel ascendant, and the U.S. deeply entrenched, the region may enter a prolonged phase of imbalance.
• While military victories may offer temporary calm, political exclusion and demographic suppression, especially of Palestinians, promise future conflagrations.
• The Gulf states, having traded agency for survival, now face the burden of consequences.
• Only a reinvigoration of diplomacy, restraint, and inclusive politics can salvage West Asia from becoming a perpetually unstable frontier in global geopolitics.