Context

• The global energy landscape has undergone significant transformations in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.
• As African nations strive to diversify their energy sources, nuclear power is emerging as a critical component of their energy transition.
• However, this shift has also attracted the attention of global powers eager to secure a stake in Africa’s nuclear market.
• China, in particular, has positioned itself as the dominant player, challenging traditional Western influence and raising concerns about geopolitical dependencies.

Africa’s Nuclear Energy Aspirations

• Currently, Africa has only one operational nuclear power plant, the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station in South Africa, which was built by a French consortium.
• However, several African countries, including Ghana, Nigeria, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, and Zambia, are actively planning to incorporate nuclear energy into their national power grids.
• Projections suggest that Africa could generate up to 15,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2035, representing a significant opportunity for investment, estimated at $105 billion.
• The potential for nuclear energy in Africa is not only an economic opportunity but also a solution to the continent’s chronic electricity shortages and unreliable power supply.

The Scramble for Africa’s Nuclear Market

• Historically, France dominated Africa’s nuclear market, particularly in Francophone nations.
• However, France’s influence is waning as other global powers aggressively pursue nuclear partnerships in Africa.
• The United States, through the US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (USANES), has sought to establish itself as a major player.
• However, the future of U.S. involvement depends on the political direction of President Donald Trump’s administration.
• Russia, another key contender, has signed multiple nuclear agreements with African nations, including Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Burundi.
• The Russian state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, has been constructing a reactor in El Dabaa, Egypt, since 2022, albeit with slow progress.
• South Korea, through Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP), has also shown interest in Africa’s nuclear market.
• However, it is China that has emerged as the most influential and aggressive investor in African nuclear energy.

China’s Dominance in Africa’s Nuclear Expansion

• Recent but Rapidly Expanding
  • In 2012, the China Atomic Energy Authority launched a scholarship program in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to train African and South Asian students in nuclear science.
  • This initiative strategically familiarised African nations with Chinese nuclear technologies and procedures, increasing the likelihood of future partnerships.
  • Today, China operates more than 50 nuclear reactors, reinforcing its status as a global nuclear power.
• Growing MoUs
  • Two state-owned enterprises, the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), are spearheading China’s nuclear expansion in Africa.
  • In 2024, during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, Nigeria signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China for the design, construction, and maintenance of nuclear power plants.
  • Similarly, Uganda signed an MoU with China to build a 2 GW nuclear power plant, with the first unit expected to be operational by 2031.
  • Kenya, while still undecided on its nuclear partner, plans to have a research reactor by 2030.
  • Meanwhile, Ghana has opted for U.S.-based NuScale Power and Regnum Technology Group to develop its Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), while China National Nuclear Corporation will construct a Large Reactor (LR).
• Diminishing Influence of Russia
  • In West Africa, pro-Russian governments in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali have signed nuclear cooperation agreements with Rosatom.
  • However, Russia’s economic challenges, exacerbated by sanctions due to the Ukraine war, may hinder its ability to make large-scale investments in African nuclear projects.
  • This could push these nations toward China, which is better positioned to provide financial and technical support.

The Impact on India’s Energy Security

• Africa’s nuclear ambitions have broader implications for global energy security, particularly for India.
• As India aims to increase its nuclear power capacity from 8,180 MW to 100 GW by 2047, securing uranium supplies will be crucial.
• India has previously signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Namibia and is exploring uranium mining projects in Niger and Namibia.
• However, China’s growing influence in Africa’s nuclear sector could pose challenges for India’s energy security by limiting its access to uranium and nuclear-related infrastructure.
• Furthermore, many African countries lack the transmission networks necessary to distribute power from nuclear plants.
• China, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has the capability to develop these networks, further cementing its dominance in Africa’s clean energy market.
• If China successfully integrates nuclear power with its broader infrastructure projects, it will not only strengthen its position in Africa but also gain greater geopolitical leverage over nations dependent on its investments.

Conclusion

• Africa’s shift toward nuclear energy presents both opportunities and challenges.
• While nuclear power can provide a stable and reliable source of electricity, the sector has become a battleground for global powers seeking to expand their geopolitical influence.
• China has emerged as the dominant force in Africa’s nuclear market, outpacing traditional players like France, the U.S., and Russia.
• This growing Chinese influence raises concerns about economic dependencies and strategic vulnerabilities for African nations.