Context

• The Alaska Moment between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025 has been hailed internationally as a potential turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Yet, for New Delhi, the meeting of two of India’s closest partners produced few tangible benefits.
• Instead, it reinforced India’s sense of vulnerability, of having a great deal at stake in the outcome of U.S.–Russia talks, but little direct agency in shaping them.
• The aftermath of the summit underscores not only the challenges in India’s relations with Washington under Mr. Trump but also broader lessons for India’s foreign policy conduct.

The Outcome of the Summit: Limited Gains for India

• The Modi government had hoped that a U.S.–Russia rapprochement might ease Washington’s pressure on New Delhi over its ties with Moscow.
• Specifically, India sought relief from U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian oil imports, the resumption of stalled India–U.S. trade talks, and a possible rollback of steep reciprocal tariffs.
• These expectations proved misplaced. Despite the warmth between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, no shift occurred in Washington’s hard line against India.
• The U.S. administration has instead doubled down, with Senior Counsellor Peter Navarro framing the sanctions as a two-pronged policy to punish both Russian imports and India’s curbs on market access.
• Simultaneously, Trump’s insistence on credit for mediating the India-Pakistan ceasefire during Operation Sindoor has clashed directly with New Delhi’s own narrative, deepening tensions rather than alleviating them.

The Reason Behind Trump’s Secondary Tariff: Beyond Power Politics

• The rationale behind U.S. secondary sanctions appears less about weakening Russia than about power politics and leverage over India.
• Washington itself has expanded trade with Moscow since Mr. Trump’s return to office, while China’s oil imports from Russia dwarf those of India.
• Targeting India selectively reflects more on Mr. Trump’s desire for recognition, particularly his fixation on being seen as a global peacemaker, than on any consistent policy principle.
• Reports of Mr. Modi’s refusal to endorse Mr. Trump’s claims or sit down with Pakistan under U.S. auspices have only worsened bilateral friction.

Lessons for New Delhi

• Do Not Overinvest in Summitry
  • The Alaska episode illustrates the perils of allowing diplomatic showmanship to eclipse substance.
  • For years, Mr. Modi has emphasised personal rapport with world leaders, from rallies with Mr. Trump to multiple meetings with China’s Xi Jinping.
  • Yet such interactions have not prevented serious crises, from the Galwan clashes with China to current strains with the U.S. India must reorient its diplomacy toward concrete agreements and institutional mechanisms, rather than optics.
• Rebuild Bipartisan Engagement
  • India’s tendency to be seen as favouring one U.S. political faction has repeatedly backfired.
  • The Modi-Trump camaraderie alienated Democrats in 2020, while subsequent engagement with the Biden administration irritated Mr. Trump.
  • India’s long-term interests require cultivating bipartisan goodwill in Washington, just as it must balance competing political currents in neighbouring states such as Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
• Uphold Strategic Autonomy
  • Trump’s sanctions highlight the dangers of India departing from its principle of adhering only to UN-mandated sanctions.
  • Previous concessions to U.S. pressure, on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, may have emboldened Washington to demand similar compliance on Russian imports.
  • Resisting such pressures not only safeguards India’s economic interests but also strengthens its credibility as a leader of the Global South.
• Prepare Countermeasures
  • New Delhi must also consider stronger responses to U.S. policies that harm its economic and strategic interests.
  • These may include measures against reciprocal tariffs, restrictions on U.S. manufacturing in India, or potential remittance taxes on Indian workers in America.
  • Restoring India’s agency requires a readiness to respond firmly rather than reactively to shifting U.S. policies.

The Way Forward

• India now faces an important decision: whether to keep chasing Washington’s approval or to diversify its diplomatic bets.
• Modi’s upcoming engagements, in Japan, China, South Africa, and with Russia, provide opportunities to reinforce alternative partnerships.
• Meanwhile, the upcoming Quad summit will test the resilience of India–U.S. ties and may reveal whether Mr. Trump is willing to visit India at all.

Conclusion

• Ultimately, the Alaska Summit demonstrates that India cannot afford to let its foreign policy be swayed by the pageantry of high-level meetings abroad.
• Instead, New Delhi must ground its strategy in substance, principle, and balance.
• Only then can it navigate the turbulent currents of U.S. unpredictability while safeguarding its autonomy and long-term national interests.