Context

• The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States marks an extraordinary political comeback, reshaping American politics and signalling a critical moment in global geopolitics.
• Central to the vision of Trump’s administration is the Indo-Pacific region, which plays a vital role in shaping global trade, security, and stability.
• Therefore, it is crucial to explore the Indo-Pacific's growing significance, analyses the evolution of U.S. policy, and outlines the potential trajectory of Trump’s approach to the region.

The Indo-Pacific Region Under Trump’s First Term: Redefining the Indo-Pacific

• A New Geopolitical Lens
  • Trump’s administration popularised the term ‘Indo-Pacific,’ moving beyond the narrower Asia-Pacific framework to encompass a broader geographical and strategic focus.
  • This semantic shift underscored the significance of the Indian Ocean alongside East Asia, reflecting Washington’s commitment to countering China's growing influence in both maritime and terrestrial spheres.
  • The Indo-Pacific narrative emphasised securing vital sea lines of communication, addressing maritime security challenges, and maintaining a balance of power in a region central to global trade and security.
• Institutional and Structural Reforms
  • Significant structural adjustments further cemented the region's importance in U.S. strategic thinking.
  • The renaming of the U.S. Pacific Command to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in 2018 symbolised the operational prioritisation of the region.
  • Moreover, the Office of the Secretary of Defence reorganised its framework to establish specialised units focusing on partnerships with Indo-Pacific allies, signalling a long-term commitment to safeguarding regional stability.
• Revival of the Quad
  • Perhaps most crucially, the Trump administration revitalised the Quad, elevating it from an informal dialogue to a ministerial-level engagement.
  • This reflected a pragmatic convergence of interests among the United States, India, Japan, and Australia in countering shared challenges, including China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and the need for resilient supply chains.
  • Maritime security, technological cooperation, and standards-setting became focal points of the Quad, laying the groundwork for deeper collaboration in maintaining a rules-based order.

Indo-Pacific Under Biden

• Continuity with a Broader Agenda
  • The Biden administration inherited Trump’s Indo-Pacific framework, maintaining its strategic centrality while expanding its scope.
  • Biden elevated the Quad further by organising the first Quad leaders’ summit in 2021, broadening its focus beyond defence to include pressing global challenges like vaccine distribution, climate change, and critical infrastructure development.
  • This approach reflected a blend of hard and soft power, emphasising multilateralism and inclusive development to strengthen the Indo-Pacific's stability and prosperity.
• Introduction of Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)
  • Biden also introduced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in 2022 to complement strategic priorities with economic engagement.
  • These efforts underlined a bipartisan consensus in Washington on the Indo-Pacific's critical role, providing a solid foundation for Trump’s second term to build upon.

Potential Trajectory of Trump’s Approach to the Indo-Pacific Region

• Countering China’s Assertiveness
  • The administration views China not only as a regional competitor but also as a global adversary with ambitions to challenge the U.S.-led world order.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks, describing China as the most formidable adversary, underscore the administration’s commitment to adopting a more confrontational stance.
  • This may involve increased freedom-of-navigation operations in contested areas like the South China Sea, expanded sanctions against Chinese entities, and intensified efforts to counter Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative by offering alternative development projects to nations in the region.
  • The U.S. is expected to lead a coalition of like-minded countries to deter coercive actions by China, particularly those that seek to alter the status quo through force or intimidation.
• Strengthening the Quad as a Pillar of Regional Stability
  • The Quad remains a cornerstone of Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
  • The grouping of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia is seen as a vital mechanism for promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific.
  • Trump’s administration will likely prioritise making the Quad more operational, with an emphasis on joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated responses to maritime security challenges.
  • The revival of the Quad during Trump’s first term was a reflection of its strategic necessity, and his administration is poised to take it further.
  • Regular ministerial and leaders’ summits, such as the one planned to be hosted by India, will focus on institutionalising the Quad into a more robust platform for addressing regional challenges.
• Advancing Defence Cooperation
  • A central feature of Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy will be deepening defence ties with key regional allies and partners.
  • The renaming of the U.S. Pacific Command to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command during Trump’s first term was symbolic of this commitment.
  • In his second term, Trump is likely to accelerate efforts to build the defence capacities of allies like India, Japan, and Australia through technology transfers, joint exercises, and co-production agreements.
  • Trump’s administration may also expand trilateral or multilateral defence initiatives beyond the Quad.
  • For instance, enhancing military collaboration with Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia could serve to reinforce regional deterrence against China.
• Promoting Economic and Technological Alliances
  • While hard power will dominate Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, economic and technological collaboration will remain critical components of his approach.
  • Recognising the importance of economic security in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific, Trump’s administration is likely to promote resilient supply chains that reduce dependency on China.
  • This could involve strengthening initiatives to diversify production networks, particularly in key sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals.
  • Furthermore, technological partnerships with Indo-Pacific allies are expected to gain prominence.
  • The U.S. may spearhead initiatives to develop and deploy 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and other advanced technologies, ensuring that these innovations align with democratic values and standards.
• Balancing Hard Power with Broader Agendas
  • While the focus on hard power will be a defining feature of Trump’s second term, the administration is also likely to support broader initiatives that align with U.S. strategic interests.
  • For example, efforts to address climate change, enhance vaccine distribution, and promote infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific could serve as complementary strategies to reinforce regional stability.
  • These initiatives, however, will likely be pursued through bilateral or multilateral frameworks that prioritise U.S. leadership and align with the broader objective of countering China’s influence.

Conclusion

• Donald Trump’s second term as President heralds a renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific, reaffirming its centrality to U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics.
• By building on the foundational work of his first term and leveraging bipartisan consensus, Trump’s administration is poised to adopt a more assertive posture against China while creating deeper collaboration with Quad partners.
• As the Indo-Pacific continues to shape the geopolitical dynamics of the 21st century, the U.S.'s role under Trump 2.0 will be critical in navigating this complex and evolving landscape.