Why in news?

A new study published in Nature Communications suggests the Arctic Ocean could experience its first ice-free day—defined as less than one million square kilometers of sea ice—by 2030 or earlier, driven by unprecedented greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis warns that while the scenario is unlikely, its plausibility is growing due to continued human-induced climate change.

Arctic sea ice has been shrinking at an alarming rate, with its extent decreasing by 12.6% per decade over the last 40 years—a rate unmatched in at least 1,500 years, according to the MIT Climate Portal's 2023 report.

What’s in today’s article?

• Arctic Region
• Key highlights of the study
• What happens if the Arctic becomes ice-free?

Arctic Region

• 
• Introduction
  • The Arctic region, or the Arctic, is a geographic region spreading around the North Pole.
  • It includes the northern parts of Canada, the United States, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, and Greenland.
  • The Arctic Ocean lies between these lands. An imaginary line, called the Arctic Circle, surrounds most of the area.
    • The Arctic Circle (66° 33'N) defines the Arctic based on solar radiation.
• Geography and Climate
• The Arctic consists mainly of flat, treeless tundras with some mountainous areas.
• Much of the ground is permanently frozen, with only the top layer thawing in summer.
  • Greenland is largely covered by a permanent ice sheet.
• Daylight: The North Pole experiences six months of darkness followed by six months of constant daylight, while Arctic lands farther south have shorter periods of daylight in winter and brief darkness in summer.
• Temperature: Winters are extremely cold, with temperatures reaching −90°F (−68°C) inland, while summers are mild at around 50°F (10°C). Snowfall is heavier near the coasts.
• Flora and Fauna
  • Plants: Trees are scarce, growing only in southern regions. The tundras support lichens, mosses, grasses, and some flowering plants.
  • Animals: The Arctic hosts polar bears, caribou, Arctic foxes, Arctic hares, gray wolves, seals, walruses, whales, and various fish. Birds like the snowy owl live year-round, while others migrate during summer.
• Human Presence
  • Indigenous Peoples: Indigenous groups like the Nenets, Sakha, Evenk, Chukchi, Sami, Inuit, and Aleuts traditionally inhabit the Arctic, living in small settlements.
  • Settlers: In the 1900s, industries such as mining and oil drilling attracted settlers of European descent, who established larger towns and cities.

Key highlights of the study

• Key Findings
  • Near-Term Ice-Free Scenario
    • Nine simulations projected the first ice-free day could occur as early as September 2027 if conditions such as an unusually warm fall, winter, and spring, combined with stormy weather, align.
  • Extended Ice-Free Period
    • The simulations suggested the ice-free period could last between 11 and 53 days, potentially leading to the Arctic's first ice-free month.
  • Timing uncertain
    • While the exact timing of the first ice-free day is uncertain, scientists agree it is inevitable unless dramatic reductions in GHG emissions are achieved—a scenario deemed unlikely in the near future.
    • The occurrence of the first ice-free day may trigger more frequent events in subsequent years.
• Driving Factors
  • Unprecedented GHG emissions are accelerating Arctic Sea ice decline.
  • Global surface concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide reached record highs in 2023, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

What happens if the Arctic becomes ice-free?

• Impact on Climate Change
  • The loss of Arctic Sea ice accelerates climate change due to the Albedo effect, where the reflective ice is replaced by darker ocean water that absorbs more solar energy.
  • This leads to increased warming in the Arctic, triggering extreme weather events in mid-latitudes.
• Rising Sea Levels
  • Global sea levels are already rising at an accelerated rate of 3.6 mm per year, 1.5 times faster than the 1990s.
  • If the Greenland ice sheet melts entirely, sea levels could rise by six meters, threatening coastal communities worldwide.
• Ecosystem Disruption
  
  • Species like polar bears, walruses, Arctic foxes, snowy owls, and reindeer are at risk due to habitat loss and melting permafrost.
  • Marine animals are migrating further north for colder waters, disrupting food chains and dependent species.
• Human and Infrastructure Impact
  • The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, endangering ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods of Arctic communities.