Why in news?

Amid widespread violence and political unrest in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman returned to the country after 17 years in exile. The turmoil has also been marked by intensifying anti-India rhetoric, raising regional and diplomatic concerns.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Forces Driving the Current Turmoil in Bangladesh
• Mobocracy and Media Control as Tools
• Economic Unravelling and India Ties
• Tarique Rahman’s Return: Political Impact After 17 Years
• Rising Anti-India Rhetoric in Bangladesh
• Why the India–Bangladesh Relationship Matters Deeply?

Forces Driving the Current Turmoil in Bangladesh

• A Planned Regime-Change Operation (July–August 2024)
  • The unrest that began in July–August 2024 has often been described as a spontaneous uprising, but evidence points to a planned operation aimed at regime change.
  • Bangladesh’s chief adviser Muhammad Yunus publicly acknowledged this in September, identifying a close aide as the strategist behind it.
  • The Jamaat-e-Islami, long aligned with Pakistan, emerged as a key driving force—and now exerts significant influence over the administration.
• Dismantling the Post-1971 Political Order
  • A central objective has been to erase the post-1971 legacy.
  • From August 5, 2024, symbols and institutions linked to the Liberation War and the Awami League have been targeted, signalling an attempt to rewrite national memory and politics.
• Minority Repression and Visible Islamisation
  • Another major strand is a crackdown on minorities and a push toward more overt Islamisation.
  • Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and Ahmadiyyas have faced attacks, including allegations of killings, sexual violence, property destruction, and land grabs.
  • The lynching of Dipu Chandra Das drew international condemnation, underscoring the severity of abuses.

Mobocracy and Media Control as Tools

• Jamaat-e-Islami’s consolidation of power has been accompanied by violence and unrest as methods of control.
  • Mobocracy: Crowds surround offices, officials, and judges until demands are met.
  • Institutional Capture: Jamaat-aligned appointees are replacing incumbents across bureaucracy and academia.
  • Media Suppression: Attacks on journalists and outlets have surged; offices of Prothom Alo and The Daily Star were recently attacked, and some journalists detained without trial.

Economic Unravelling and India Ties

• The turmoil has disrupted long-standing economic cooperation with India, built over decades under Sheikh Hasina.
• An economy that grew 6.5–7% annually for 15 years has slowed sharply: growth has halved, factories are closing, unemployment is rising, private investment has stalled, and inflation is high.

Tarique Rahman’s Return: Political Impact After 17 Years

• Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has returned after 17 years in exile and is widely seen as a frontrunner if elections are held soon.
• However, with the Awami League barred from contesting, any poll in the current climate would likely fall short of being free or fair.
• Rahman’s return is expected to trigger a surge of public support, partly driven by sympathy for his ailing mother.
• Still, an electoral victory is not assured, given shifting alliances and internal party dynamics.
• Rahman’s homecoming does not materially alter the fundamentals: a constrained electoral field, a fragmented BNP, and an emboldened Jamaat.
• Popular enthusiasm may be high, but structural realities limit Rahman’s room to reshape outcomes in the near term.

Rising Anti-India Rhetoric in Bangladesh

• Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh is not new. Even during 1971, around 20% of the population opposed the Liberation War and India’s role.
• This strand has endured over decades alongside mainstream politics.
• Parallel to this undercurrent, India–Bangladesh relations have been anchored by deep economic cooperation and people-to-people links—including tourism, medical travel, education, and trade—creating mutual stakes beyond politics.
• India’s First Priority: Reassure the Bangladeshi People
  • India should signal goodwill toward the people of Bangladesh, not regimes alone.
  • New Delhi has already demonstrated this by continuing aid and trade, keeping communication channels open, and recently agreeing to export 50,000 metric tonnes of rice.
  • Maintaining strategic restraint while engaging all principal actors remains key.
• India’s Second Priority: Push for Inclusive Elections
  • New Delhi should insist on free, fair, and inclusive elections that allow participation by all parties, including the Awami League.
  • Only an inclusive process can restore legitimacy and stability; exclusion risks prolonging violence and volatility.

Why the India–Bangladesh Relationship Matters Deeply?

• For Bangladesh, cooperation with India was central to its economic success under Sheikh Hasina.
• India has consistently been the first responder in times of need and a reliable partner due to geographic proximity, competitive pricing, shared history, and strong people-to-people ties.
• While the current regime is engaging Pakistan, China, and Turkey, none can replicate the scale, speed, or depth of support India provides.
• Vital for India’s Security Interests
  • For India, Bangladesh is pivotal primarily due to security considerations.
  • The two share a 4,000+ km porous land border and a maritime boundary, making cooperation essential.
  • In the past, Pakistan-backed terror networks and Northeast insurgent groups used Bangladeshi territory as a haven—an issue the Hasina government actively helped address.
• Growing Strategic Risks Since August 2024
  • Since August 2024, Pakistan’s state and military have reportedly re-established pre-1971 command-and-control linkages with Bangladesh, seeking deeper military embedding, including near the India–Bangladesh border.
  • This raises concerns about regional security spillovers.