Why in news?

As the world enters 2026 after a turbulent 2025, India faces a critical diplomatic moment. Global geopolitics was reshaped by wars, elections, sanctions, and leadership shifts.

India’s foreign policy choices in 2026 will determine its global standing, regional stability, and strategic autonomy.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Backdrop: 2025 as a Global Reset Year
• India–U.S. Relations Under Trump 2.0
• India–Pakistan: An Uneasy Pause
• Neighbourhood Diplomacy Challenges
• West Asia: Fragile Calm, Strategic Stakes
• Ukraine War and Russia Factor
• China and Russia: Strategic Outreach
• Multilateral Diplomacy in 2026
• Key Diplomatic Tests for India in 2026
• Conclusion: Repair, Rebuild, Rebalance

Backdrop: 2025 as a Global Reset Year

• 2025 witnessed the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, reshaping global trade, security, and alliance politics.
• Wars in Ukraine and Gaza, renewed great-power rivalry, and erosion of trust in multilateral institutions marked the year.
• Global politics increasingly moved towards transactionalism, tariffs, and coercive diplomacy.
• India’s Position
  • India navigated a year of conflicting pressures:
    • Managing ties with the U.S. amid tariff threats.
    • Sustaining energy and defence links with Russia.
    • Maintaining stability in its neighbourhood.
  • Despite tensions, India avoided strategic isolation.

India–U.S. Relations Under Trump 2.0

• Initial optimism following Trump’s re-election faded quickly.
• Trump accused India of “unfair trade practices” and imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports.
• Pressure mounted on India to reduce Russian oil imports.
• Trade talks stalled.
• While military and strategic cooperation continued, economic friction dominated.
• 2026 will test whether the relationship stabilises or deteriorates further.

India–Pakistan: An Uneasy Pause

• A terror attack in Pahalgam led India to launch Operation Sindoor.
• Military escalation was avoided, but relations remain tense.
• Pakistan faces internal consolidation of power under Asim Munir, raising concerns over military dominance.
• Key Concern for India - Fragile ceasefire; Persistent terror infrastructure; Risk of sudden escalation.

Neighbourhood Diplomacy Challenges

• Nepal: Regime Change and Instability
  • Protests and generational political churn.
  • Formation of an interim government.
  • Revival of monarchist sentiments and stronger army role.
  • India must recalibrate engagement carefully.
• Bangladesh: Political Turmoil
  • Renewed unrest after killing of youth leader.
  • Student protests and fragile interim administration under Muhammad Yunus.
  • Elections due in 2026 amid law-and-order concerns.

West Asia: Fragile Calm, Strategic Stakes

• Gaza War Pause
  • Temporary pause after intense conflict.
  • Direct Indian interests due to:
    • Energy security
    • Indian diaspora
    • IMEC corridor prospects
  • India’s Role - Advocates restraint, humanitarian aid, and regional stability; 2026 may offer limited diplomatic revival but risks remain high.

Ukraine War and Russia Factor

• War Without Resolution
  • No clear end despite peace talks.
  • Trump pushes for ceasefire, but core disputes persist.
• India’s Position - Continued engagement with Russia; Participation in Ukraine discussions while preserving strategic autonomy; Russian oil imports remain critical for inflation control.

China and Russia: Strategic Outreach

• India engaged both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin through SCO and bilateral channels.
• China remains the primary long-term challenge despite tactical engagement.
• Despite talks, 60,000+ troops remain deployed on both sides of LAC.
• Disengagement remain incomplete.
• Re-engagement with China: Cautious Reset
  • Trade links expanded but mistrust remains.
  • India balances economic pragmatism with security concerns.
  • 2026 diplomacy requires avoiding escalation without conceding core interests.

Multilateral Diplomacy in 2026

• BRICS and Quad
  • India must balance participation in BRICS with its role in the Quad.
  • Both forums reflect India’s strategic autonomy.
• G20 Under U.S. Presidency
  • Trump’s approach may dilute multilateralism.
  • India must protect G20 gains achieved during its presidency.
• Europe and Africa: Renewed Focus
  • Europe
    • India seeks stronger economic and strategic ties.
    • Hosting visits from EU leadership expected.
  • Africa
    • India’s goodwill remains strong.
    • Next India–Africa Forum Summit
    • Countering China’s growing footprint remains a challenge.

Key Diplomatic Tests for India in 2026

• Trade
  • Finalising or salvaging trade deal with the U.S.
  • Managing tariff pressures.
• Energy Security
  • Sustaining Russian oil imports amid pressure.
  • Maintaining Middle East stability.
• Technology and AI
  • Hosting global AI summit.
  • Showcasing India’s tech leadership.

Conclusion: Repair, Rebuild, Rebalance

• 2026 is not about grand resets but careful repair:
  • Repairing strained alliances.
  • Rebuilding neighbourhood trust.
  • Rebalancing relations among rival power blocs.