Context

• As headlines focus on Chinese naval expansion in the Indo-Pacific and India’s strategic countermeasures, a quieter but equally significant contest is unfolding at the roof of the world, the Himalayas.
• Here, the battleground is neither oil nor trade, but faith. At the heart of the geopolitical tension between India and China lies a struggle over the spiritual and cultural influence of Himalayan Buddhism.
• What appears to be a tradition of peace and non-violence has, in the 21st century, transformed into a stage for geopolitical strategy.

Buddhism as a Tool of Statecraft

• China’s Use of Buddhism
  • China has been particularly aggressive in using Buddhism as a tool of statecraft.
  • Since the 1950s, Beijing has systematically sought to dominate Tibetan religious life by marginalising independent lamas, controlling religious institutions, and asserting its authority over the process of reincarnation.
  • In 2007, China officially declared that all Living Buddhas must receive state approval, effectively placing spiritual legitimacy under political control.
  • Today, Beijing maintains a database of approved lamas, closely monitors monastic activities, and invests heavily in Buddhist infrastructure as part of its broader soft power strategy.
• India’s Buddhist Diplomacy
  • India, by contrast, has been slower to respond.
  • Hosting the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile since 1959 gave New Delhi a moral advantage but little strategic leverage.
  • Only in the past decade has India begun to actively promote its Buddhist heritage, positioning itself as the birthplace of the Buddha and investing in pilgrimage circuits to attract regional influence.
  • However, these initiatives remain fragmented compared to China’s well-coordinated efforts. As one scholar aptly notes, while India practices Buddhist diplomacy, China pursues Buddhist statecraft.

The Dalai Lama Succession Crisis

• The Dalai Lama, who turned 90 in July, has expressed his intention to reincarnate outside Chinese, controlled territory, most likely in India.
• Beijing, however, plans to select its own Dalai Lama using the historical Golden Urn method.
• This will almost certainly result in two competing Dalai Lamas: one recognised by the Tibetan exile community and much of the Buddhist diaspora, and another installed under Chinese control in Lhasa.
• Such a schism would not only divide Tibetan Buddhism but also force Himalayan Buddhist communities, in Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, to choose sides.
• Spiritual allegiance, in this case, could translate directly into geopolitical loyalty.
• If the Dalai Lama’s successor is recognised in India, it would strengthen New Delhi’s influence. If China’s candidate gains traction, it could tilt loyalties toward Beijing.

China’s Expanding Cultural Influence

• China is already using cultural and religious narratives to assert territorial claims.
• In Arunachal Pradesh, particularly Tawang, birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama, China combines military posturing with claims of historical and spiritual legitimacy, arguing that the region is inherently Tibetan and therefore Chinese.
• In Nepal, Beijing has heavily invested in Buddhist infrastructure, notably around Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha.
• In Bhutan, China subtly engages with monastic communities, testing the kingdom’s careful balance between tradition and foreign influence.

The Himalayas as the True Frontline and Soft Power as Hard Power

• The Himalayas as the True Frontline
  • While global attention remains fixed on maritime disputes in the Indo-Pacific, the real strategic frontier between India and China may lie among the high peaks of the Himalayas.
  • The monasteries, prayer wheels, and chanting monks of this region are not merely remnants of a spiritual past but instruments of modern power.
  • The battle for influence is increasingly fought not with missiles and submarines but with prayer beads, reincarnations, and the politics of faith.
• Soft Power as Hard Power
  • In the rugged Himalayan terrain, where roads and infrastructure are sparse, soft power often functions as hard power.
  • A monastery shifting its allegiance can alter the balance of influence in an entire region.
  • India’s challenge is to prevent its border populations from being swayed by Chinese-controlled spiritual figures, particularly in sensitive areas like Ladakh.
  • The stakes will only rise after the Dalai Lama’s passing. His succession will not remain a bilateral issue but will reverberate across Buddhist-majority countries such as Mongolia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.

Conclusion

• The unfolding struggle over Himalayan Buddhism highlights a deeper truth: geopolitics is not confined to territory, trade, or military might.
• India and China continue their contest for regional dominance; the future of Asia may be shaped as much by spiritual succession as by strategic deterrence.
• The Himalayas, far from being a remote periphery, have emerged as the stage where religion and realpolitik converge, where the next great Asian rivalry will be waged not only on land or sea but in the realm of the sacred.