Context

• The political dynamics between India and China have undergone a noticeable shift, with India seemingly adopting a more conciliatory stance toward its neighbour.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent remarks emphasising dialogue as essential for global stability signal a potential recalibration in India's foreign policy.
• While this shift does not guarantee a fundamental policy change, it raises important questions about India’s strategic interests, regional security concerns, and its broader geopolitical calculations.

Background of India-China Ties: A Complex History of Conflict and Engagement

• Border Tensions and Military Confrontations
  • One of the most persistent and contentious issues in India-China relations is the border dispute, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • This dispute dates back to the colonial era when British India and Tibet had differing perceptions of the boundary.
  • After India’s independence in 1947 and China’s annexation of Tibet in 1950, tensions escalated, culminating in the Sino-Indian War of 1962.
  • China decisively won the war and took control of the Aksai Chin region, which India continues to claim.
  • Since then, multiple border skirmishes have occurred, with some of the most serious confrontations taking place in recent decades.
  • Doklam Standoff (2017): A 73-day military standoff occurred when Chinese troops attempted to construct a road in the Doklam region, disputed between China and Bhutan but of strategic concern to India. Eventually, both sides disengaged after diplomatic negotiations.
  • Galwan Valley Clash (2020)
    • In the deadliest confrontation in over four decades, Chinese and Indian troops engaged in hand-to-hand combat in Ladakh, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese troops.
    • This incident led to a severe deterioration in bilateral relations, with heightened military deployments along the LAC.
  • Post-2020 Standoff and Disengagement Efforts
    • Following the Galwan clash, multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks were held to de-escalate tensions.
    • While some disengagement was achieved in 2023, border tensions remain unresolved, and both nations continue to maintain a heavy military presence along the LAC.
• Economic Interdependence Amid Political Strains
  • Despite military tensions, economic ties between India and China have remained strong.
  • China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $136 billion in 2023.
  • However, this economic relationship is marked by a significant trade imbalance, with India importing far more from China than it exports.
  • In the wake of the 2020 border crisis, India took steps to reduce economic reliance on China by banning several Chinese apps, restricting Chinese investments, and promoting domestic manufacturing under the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India)’
  • Yet, these measures have not significantly curtailed trade dependence, as Chinese goods remain integral to India’s supply chains in industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications.
• Shifting Diplomatic Strategies and Engagement Efforts
  • India’s diplomatic engagement with China has oscillated between cooperation and confrontation.
  • In the early years of Narendra Modi’s government, India sought to build a productive relationship with China, as seen in high-profile summits between Modi and President Xi Jinping:
    • Wuhan Informal Summit (2018): After the Doklam crisis, both leaders met in Wuhan to reset ties and emphasize strategic communication.
    • Chennai Informal Summit (2019): The discussions focused on trade, investment, and global governance issues, reflecting India’s willingness to engage with China despite ongoing strategic concerns.
  • However, these efforts did not prevent China’s aggressive actions in Ladakh in 2020, demonstrating the limits of diplomatic overtures in addressing deep-seated geopolitical rivalries.

India’s Strategic Considerations and the US Factor

• India’s Strategic Considerations
  • India’s broader strategic calculations underscore its recent shift in tone.
  • At the heart of India’s foreign policy is economic development, which requires a stable regional environment.
  • Given China’s significantly larger economy, developing a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with Beijing aligns with India’s economic priorities.
  • As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pointed out, maintaining stability with China is a matter of "common sense."
  • At the same time, India remains committed to its security partnerships.
  • Modi’s softer rhetoric toward China coincided with high-level meetings between India’s Chief of Defence Staff and senior military officials from the Quad, an alliance involving the United States, Japan, and Australia.
  • This dual approach suggests that India is hedging its bets, keeping open the possibility of both diplomatic engagement and strategic partnerships.
• The U.S. Factor
  • India’s foreign policy decisions do not occur in isolation.
  • The shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly the evolving stance of the United States under the Trump administration, plays a crucial role in India’s calculations.
  • While Trump has imposed tariffs on China, his defence policies remain ambiguous, with proposals to reduce defence spending and encourage allies to assume greater responsibility for their security.
  • Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, including his handling of Ukraine and apparent willingness to broker deals that could shift global power dynamics, raises concerns for India.
  • Although India does not rely on direct American military protection, it has benefited from U.S. intelligence and strategic support in managing tensions with China.
  • Any perceived decline in American reliability adds urgency to India’s efforts to secure its own position through independent engagement with China.

The Way Forward: The Need for Military Preparedness Along with Diplomatic Engagement

• Despite the recent diplomatic overtures, India must not overlook the importance of military readiness.
• Defence spending as a share of GDP has declined over the past decade, a concerning trend given India’s security challenge.
• The risk of a more accommodating policy toward China is that it could justify further delays in much-needed military investments.
• Modernisation of India’s defence capabilities, including the development of submarines and fighter aircraft, requires long-term planning and investment.
• Strengthening operational cooperation with strategic partners remains critical, regardless of Washington’s shifting policies.
• Military exercises and coordination with allies enhance India's ability to respond to potential future conflicts.

Conclusion

• India’s evolving approach to China reflects a pragmatic balancing act, engaging in diplomatic dialogue while maintaining strategic partnerships and military preparedness.
• While PM Modi’s conciliatory remarks suggest a willingness to stabilise relations, history indicates that India must remain cautious of China’s long-term ambitions.
• Stability, in this context, should not come at the cost of deterrence.
• India must complement its diplomatic outreach with tangible military and strategic investments to ensure that any engagement with China is conducted from a position of strength, not vulnerability.