Context

• China’s plan to construct a massive hydroelectric dam on the lower section of the upper stream of the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet (called Brahmaputra in India) has sparked significant concerns, particularly in India.
• The Brahmaputra River plays a crucial role in the lives of millions in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh.
• While China’s transition to renewable energy through hydroelectric projects aligns with its environmental and economic objectives, the potential consequences for downstream countries highlight serious environmental, geopolitical, and legal challenges.

Legal Dimensions and International Water Laws

• The construction of the dam brings into focus critical legal issues under international water law.
• The UN Watercourses Convention (1997) emphasises equitable and reasonable utilisation of water resources, the obligation to prevent significant harm, and the duty to cooperate among riparian states.
• However, neither China nor India is a signatory to this convention, which complicates the resolution of disputes over transboundary rivers.
• China’s official stance on water management includes principles such as international cooperation, shared rights and obligations, and equal emphasis on development and protection.
• However, lower riparian states often accuse China of using water as a strategic tool. India, which relies on Tibetan-origin rivers for one-third of its water supply, sees China’s unilateral actions as a serious threat.
• The MoUs between India and China on sharing water data for the Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers have lapsed, but recent diplomatic engagements provide hope for their renewal.
• In the absence of a formal agreement, the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) serves as a vital platform for managing water-related matters.

Environmental Risks and Ecological Impact

• Seismic Risks and Structural Vulnerability
  • One of the most significant environmental concerns is the high seismic activity of the Tibetan Plateau, where the dam is being built.
  • The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are part of the Indo-Eurasian tectonic plate collision zone, making them one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world.
  • The potential for earthquakes, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the region poses a serious threat to the dam’s structural integrity and downstream communities.
  • If an earthquake were to damage or destroy the dam, a sudden release of water could cause catastrophic floods in downstream regions, particularly in India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
  • These areas are already prone to annual flooding, and an artificial flood triggered by dam failure could lead to massive loss of life and property.
• Disruption of River Ecosystems
  • The Brahmaputra River system supports a delicate ecological balance, which is essential for both aquatic and terrestrial species.
  • The construction of a massive dam disrupts the natural flow of the river, leading to major ecological changes.
  • The dam will likely trap large amounts of sediments, which are essential for maintaining fertile floodplains downstream.
  • This could lead to reduced soil fertility in Assam and Bangladesh, impacting agriculture and food security and increased erosion in downstream areas, as the river will carry less sediment to reinforce riverbanks.
  • Dams alter the temperature and oxygen content of river water, which affects fish populations and other aquatic life.
  • Species adapted to free-flowing rivers may struggle to survive in the artificially controlled water conditions created by the dam.
• Threats to Biodiversity and Wildlife
  • The Yarlung Zangbo and Brahmaputra river basins are home to diverse species, including endangered aquatic animals like the Gangetic river dolphin and various migratory birds. The construction of the dam could lead to habitat destruction and loss of biodiversity.
  • Many fish species rely on free-flowing rivers to migrate and reproduce. The dam will likely block migration routes, leading to population decline and even extinction of some species.
  • The surrounding forested and wetland areas will also be affected, reducing breeding and feeding grounds for species like the Bengal tiger and one-horned rhinoceros in India’s Kaziranga National Park.
  • It will also endanger rare bird species such as the black-necked crane, which breeds in Tibet and relies on riverine ecosystems.

Geopolitical Challenges and the Need for Regional Cooperation

• The water dispute between China and India cannot be viewed in isolation from broader geopolitical tensions.
• Water-related activities in Tibet affect not just India and Bangladesh but also Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan, all of which are lower riparian states.
• A regional water negotiation plan could help South Asian nations develop a unified response, but political divisions make such an alliance difficult to achieve.
• The lack of a strong regional organization to manage transboundary water resources further weakens South Asia’s ability to negotiate with China.
• Bilateral tensions between India and its neighbours fluctuate frequently, making coordinated water diplomacy a challenge.
• Additionally, the broader political relationship between India and China influences water-related decisions, with trust deficits often impeding constructive engagement.

The Way Forward

• To mitigate risks and build trust, renewed diplomatic engagements and enhanced information-sharing through mechanisms like the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) are crucial.
• A more structured regional approach to water governance could also help South Asian nations collectively address their shared concerns.
• However, achieving this will require overcoming political divisions and creating stronger bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

Conclusion

• China’s proposed hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Zangbo presents a complex challenge for India and other lower riparian states.
• While China maintains that the dam will not significantly impact downstream water flow, India remains concerned about its environmental, legal, and geopolitical implications.
• The absence of binding international agreements on transboundary rivers further complicates the situation.