Context

• Climate change has evolved into a structural challenge to the foundations of international law.
• Beyond addressing environmental damage and designing burden-sharing mechanisms, states must now reconsider core legal doctrines.
• Principles such as Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources (PSNR), the territorial requirement for statehood under the Montevideo Convention, refugee protection under the 1951 Refugee Convention, and maritime entitlements governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea are increasingly unsettled.
• Within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), states face the urgent task of renegotiation to preserve legal stability while responding to climate-induced risks.

Climate Change and Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources

• The Foundation of PSNR
  • The doctrine of PSNR emerged from decolonisation and affirms the right of states to control and exploit their natural wealth.
  • It also includes fossil fuels, in pursuit of economic independence and self-determination and remains a cornerstone of sovereign equality and development policy.
• Tension Between Fossil Fuel Exploitation and Climate Obligations
  • The imperative to limit global warming to 1.5°C has intensified calls for a phase-out of fossil fuels.
  • Proposals such as a Fossil-Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty advocate leaving substantial reserves unexploited.
  • This creates tension between national resource rights and the common concern of humankind.
  • Developing states may accept limited obligations restricting extraction, provided these do not permanently undermine development prospects.
  • Equity requires climate finance, technology transfer, and access to carbon-neutral technologies from developed countries.
  • Climate governance thus recalibrates sovereignty, balancing resource control with collective environmental responsibility.

Climate Change and the Territorial Requirement for Statehood

• The Montevideo Criteria for Statehood
  • The Montevideo Convention establishes four criteria for statehood: defined territory, permanent population, government, and capacity to enter relations.
  • Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens small island states whose physical territory may diminish or disappear, raising existential legal questions.
• State Continuity and Legal Ambiguity
  • Customary international law presumes state continuity. The International Court of Justice has indicated that loss of one constituent element does not automatically extinguish statehood.
  • In 2023, the Pacific Islands Forum affirmed that international law does not contemplate the demise of states due to climate-related SLR.
  • No minimum territorial threshold is specified in the Montevideo Convention, reinforcing arguments for continued legal personality despite land loss.
  • However, the erosion of territory threatens governance structures, citizenship rights, and sovereign authority, rendering statehood increasingly precarious.
  • Climate change exposes gaps between formal doctrine and geopolitical reality.

Climate Change-Induced Migration and Refugee Protection

• Limitations of the 1951 Refugee Framework
  • The 1951 Refugee Convention protects individuals fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, social group, or political opinion.
  • Persons displaced by environmental degradation or SLR do not meet this definition. Consequently, climate migrants risk losing international protection and the benefits attached to nationality.
• The Need for a New Legal Regime
  • Addressing this protection gap requires a dedicated legal mechanism, potentially through a protocol under the UNFCCC. Such a framework could provide recognition, resettlement, and safeguards for those displaced by climate impacts.
  • This approach reflects a shift toward collective responsibility and human security, acknowledging that environmental harm generates cross-border consequences beyond traditional refugee law.

Unsettling of Maritime Zones

• Baselines and Maritime Entitlements
  • Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, maritime zones, including the territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and continental shelf, are measured from coastal baselines.
  • Rising sea levels may shift these baselines, potentially reducing maritime entitlements and access to marine resources.
• Permanent vs. Ambulatory Baselines
  • Several small island and Pacific states advocate permanent baselines, effectively freezing maritime claims despite physical coastal changes.
  • This ensures jurisdictional stability and economic security.
  • This position contrasts with the traditional ambulatory baseline doctrine permitted under UNCLOS, whereby baselines move with natural coastal shifts.
  • Accepting either interpretation in the context of anthropogenic climate change would require significant legal reinterpretation.
  • The tension illustrates the conflict between static legal doctrines and dynamic environmental transformation.

Conclusion

• Climate change represents a transformative moment for international law. Foundational doctrines, sovereignty, territorial integrity, refugee protection, and maritime jurisdiction, are strained by rising seas, displacement, and decarbonisation imperatives.
• The UNFCCC framework and its Conference of the Parties provide a crucial forum for advancing equitable principles and reinforcing international cooperation.
• Responding effectively demands more than incremental adaptation; it requires principled legal innovation, solidarity, and a redefinition of rights and responsibilities in an era of planetary crisis.