What’s in Today’s Article?

• Background (Context of the Article)
• About the Study (Key Findings, Emissions from Transport Sector, Alternatives, Conclusion)

Background:

• A recent study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) India reveals that India's transport sector has the potential to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 71% by 2050 if key strategies are implemented.
• These strategies include electrification, improving fuel economy standards, and adopting cleaner modes of transport and mobility.

Emissions from India's Transport Sector:

• In 2020, India's transport sector contributed 14% of the country's total energy-related CO2 emissions.
• The study stresses the urgent need for an emission reduction roadmap for the sector to help meet India's net-zero target by 2070.
• The findings are based on an energy policy simulator that models various decarbonization targets and outcomes.
• Sectoral Breakdown of CO2 Emissions:
  • Road transport remains the most carbon-intensive segment, accounting for 90% of the transport sector's CO2 emissions.
  • Two-wheelers contribute 16%, cars 25%, buses 9%, light-duty freight vehicles 8%, and heavy-duty freight vehicles 45%—the highest of any category.
  • Other modes like railways, aviation, and waterways accounted for 6%, 3%, and 1% of energy consumption, respectively.

Key Findings of the Study:

• The report highlights that a high-ambition strategy involving electrification, fuel economy improvements, and modal shifts could significantly reduce CO2 emissions.
• According to the study, implementing these strategies at their maximum potential could cut CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption by 71% by 2050, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
• The study also notes that integrating a carbon-free electricity standard, where 75% of electricity comes from renewable sources, could lead to a 75% reduction in emissions by 2050 compared to BAU levels.

Least-Cost Policies for Decarbonization:

• The study emphasized that decarbonizing India's transport sector can be achieved through cost-effective policies.
• The simulation suggests that shifting to low-carbon transport for both freight and passenger segments is the most economical long-term solution, with an estimated saving of Rs. 12,118 per tonne of CO2 abated.
• Electric Vehicles and CO2 Reduction:
  • One of the most effective strategies for reducing CO2 emissions is the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) sales.
  • The study estimates that the annual abatement potential for CO2 emissions from EV adoption could reach 121 million metric tonnes (MtCO2e).
  • Additionally, decarbonizing electricity generation could further enhance the effectiveness of EV electrification targets.

Risk of Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario:

• If India follows a BAU scenario, the transport sector will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels until 2050.
• The study warns that fossil fuel consumption, including LPG, diesel, and petrol, is expected to quadruple over the next three decades.
• This rise will be driven by a surge in passenger and freight travel demand, which are projected to triple and increase sevenfold, respectively, between 2020 and 2050.

Conclusion:

• The WRI study highlights the need for ambitious policies and strategies to decarbonize India's transport sector, emphasizing the importance of electric vehicles, fuel efficiency, and cleaner transportation modes.
• Without these measures, India risks remaining heavily dependent on fossil fuels, further driving CO2 emissions in the coming decades.