Draft Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal

Jan. 15, 2025

Why in news?

Hamas has agreed to a draft ceasefire agreement in the Gaza conflict, with final approval pending from the Israeli Cabinet.

What’s in today’s article?

Background: Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas suddenly attacked Israel
- On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel, firing thousands of rockets and infiltrating Israeli territory.
- The assault resulted in over 1,200 deaths, including civilians, and the abduction of numerous hostages.
  - Some 100 Israelis are still captive inside Gaza, and the military believes at least a third them are dead.
Offensive by Israel

In response, Israel initiated a massive military offensive in Gaza, targeting Hamas and its infrastructure.
The offensive caused widespread destruction and civilian casualties, with over 64,000 deaths reported in Gaza as per The Lancet.

Ceasefire attempts
- The conflict drew global condemnation, highlighting humanitarian concerns.
  - The offensive has reduced large areas of the territory to rubble and displaced around 90% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million.
  - Hundreds of thousands are packed into tent camps along the coast where hunger is widespread.
- Multiple ceasefire attempts followed, with negotiations involving the US, Egypt, and Qatar, but a long-term resolution remained elusive due to deep-rooted political tensions.

Three-Phase Ceasefire Plan Overview

Basis: The plan is based on a framework proposed by President Joe Biden in June 2024, though unresolved details and lack of guarantees for a sustained ceasefire present challenge.
Three-Phase Ceasefire Plan Overview
- Phase 1: Ceasefire and Hostage Exchange
  - A six-week ceasefire will commence, requiring a full Israeli military withdrawal from all populated areas in Gaza.
  - Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, the elderly, and the wounded, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
  - All civilian captives — living or dead — will be released by the end of this phase.
  - Humanitarian aid will be sent into Gaza, with 600 trucks entering daily.
  - Palestinians will return to their homes, although widespread destruction poses challenges.
- Phase 2: Further Hostage Release and Israeli Withdrawal
  - Hamas will release remaining captives, mainly male soldiers, in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners.
  - Israel will execute a “complete withdrawal” of its forces from Gaza.
  - The ceasefire's continuation during this phase is not guaranteed, leaving room for potential resumption of military action.
- Phase 3: Gaza Reconstruction
  - A large-scale reconstruction plan for Gaza will begin.
  - Any remains of deceased hostages will be returned to their families.

Challenges to Ceasefire Implementation

Hamas' Conditions
- Hamas insists on a complete Israeli military withdrawal and an end to the war before releasing remaining hostages.
Recurring Obstacles in Past Ceasefires
- Temporary ceasefire agreements were often made to allow humanitarian aid but failed due to:
  - Hamas' demand for Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza, which Israel has consistently rejected.
  - Israel’s insistence on the destruction of Hamas as a condition for peace.
Internal Political Opposition in Israel

Far-right Israeli Ministers have threatened to quit the government over the deal, calling it a surrender to Hamas.
Maintaining a cohesive coalition in the war cabinet is difficult for Prime Minister Netanyahu, as it includes the Likud Party, far-right Jewish National Front, and ultra-Orthodox Jewish leaders.

Netanyahu's Political Position
- The war and its aftermath have temporarily strengthened Netanyahu’s political career, despite prior dissatisfaction among Israelis.
- A deal with Hamas could further strain his already fragile coalition.