Eight years of Modi Govt
May 30, 2022

 

  • Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the National Democratic Alliance governed, led by BJP, has completed eight years in power (2014- 2022).
  • Different aspects and performance on varied fronts of the BJP regime hence, has been discussed as below.

Economy: Hope and challenge

Positive outcomes

  • India has emerged as one of the most favoured FDI destinations (Top 10) due to the opening up of many sectors such as retail, civil aviation, defence, insurance, construction, etc.
  • India’s ease of doing business (EODB) ranking globally has jumped 69 places from 132 in 2011 to 63 on account of structural reforms such as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC) and the Goods & Services Tax.
  • India’s forex reserves have also nearly doubled from $300 billion from 2011 to close to $600 billion currently (2022).
  • Start-up India has further fostered over 100 unicorns.
  • The 5G telecom push likely later this year (2022) could be key to the next wave of digitisation.
  • India has also pivoted away from its otherwise insular trade stance, with pacts signed with UAE, and Australia, and negotiations initiated with EU and UK etc for free trade agreements.

Shortcomings

  • In 2014, there were expectations of a double-digit growth, but in 2022, the growth is expected to be around 7%.
  • The stock markets have fallen by close to 6% year-to-date (YTD), while the rupee has depreciated by around 4% this year.
  • The Centre’s attempts at replacing 29 sets of labour laws by four broad labour codes, but implementation is behind schedule.
  • A manufacturing-led push relies primarily on production linked incentives, but beyond telecom hardware, the output is underwhelming and private investment also continues to underperform.
  • The absence of a data protection framework is a hurdle in leveraging the numerous digital projects underway.

Education: National Policy, new entrance

Positive outcomes

  • The implementation of new National Education Policy in 2020 has been a feat amid long pending need for reforms.
  • Students can study a four-year multidisciplinary undergraduate programme with multiple exit options, or even two degree programmes simultaneously. The UGC now also permits students to pursue up to 40% of a programme online.

Shortcomings 

  • Few announcements by government have been more cosmetic, for example, the mid-day meal scheme has been repackaged and renamed PM POSHAN without any additional allocation.
  • Appointment of teachers remains tardy and public spending on education is nowhere near the 6% of GDP promised in 2014 and has in fact been decreasing (less than 2% in 2022).
  • The National Research Foundation announced in 2019 to provide a reliable base of merit-based but equitable peer-reviewed research funding and building quality research in India hasn’t been set up yet.
  • Apart from IIMs, none of the other centrally-run institutions have been granted total autonomy.
  • Less than 20 of the 50 Institutions of Eminence (to secure top global rankings and become world-class institutions) promised by the centre has been set up.

Health: Vaccines for all, but work to do

Positive outcomes

  • With regard to Covid-19 vaccines availability to everyone, India has done better than most other countries. Over 88 per cent of India's adult population has been fully vaccinated against Covid. The total Covid-19 vaccination coverage has crossed 193.26 crore.
  • Over 50 crore people have been covered to get free treatment under Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY insurance scheme).
  • The government also unveiled its plan to create an elaborate network of health and wellness centres (HWCs) for delivery of primary healthcare. About 1.5 lakh HWCs are proposed to be set up.
  • An initiative to provide a unique health ID to every citizen and create a registry of healthcare professionals and health facilities has also been launched.

Shortcomings

  • Barely 5% of India’s population has health insurance right now, which underlines the rupture of  Jan Arogya Yojana a very important initiative.
  • Upgrading of infrastructure, reforms in medical education, expansion of nursing and para-medical education, and regulation of costs of healthcare are some of the big projects the government is yet to attend to.

Social sector

Positive outcomes

  • Government leveraged the Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile (JAM) platform to expand coverage of the flagship PM-Kisan scheme from 1 crore beneficiaries in 2019 to over 10 crore in 2022.
  • New initiatives like Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PM-GKAY) to provide 5 kg free foodgrain to nearly 80 crore people every month has been extended to alleviate concern of poor.
  • PM Ujjwala Yojana has given 9 crore LPG connections to below poverty line women by 2022.
  • The Centre has also been able to roll out the One Nation, One Ration Card (ONORC) project to enable (National Food Security Act), NFSA beneficiaries to avail of their entitlement anywhere in India.
  • The flagship Jal Jeevan Mission announced in 2019 to provide tap water connections has already covered 50% rural households till now according to Jal Shakti Ministry.

Shortcomings

  • The withdrawal, in November 2021, and eventual repeal by Parliament of the three farm laws announced in June 2020 are both a setback and an unfinished agenda point for the government according to the experts.

Diplomacy and strategy: Tightrope and partnerships

Positive outcomes

  • India’s diplomatic outreach succeeded in blunting international criticism of the constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir amid repeal of Article 370.
  • India’s balancing act amid Russia-Ukraine war and strengthening of the Quad has been successful so far, but remains a delicate work in progress, as do engagements with China and the neighbourhood.

Challenges

  • The strategic establishment has been occupied with diplomacy with Beijing, as the two-year border stand-off poses the most serious threat of recent times.
  • The war in Ukraine has made it difficult for New Delhi to continue deep engagement with defence partner Russia.
  • Taliban-ruled Afghanistan also presents a huge strategic challenge and economic and political crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan demands caution while engaging.

Security and defence: LWE in decline, reforms pending

Positive outcomes

  • According to Ministry of Home Affairs, Left Wing Extremism-related violence has declined by 77% between 2009 and 2021, and resultant deaths by 85% between 2010 and 2021. The geographical influence of Maoists has been reduced to just 41 districts from 96 in 2010.
  • Gains have also been made in the Northeast. Assam and Meghalaya Pact to resolve boundary dispute has also been a feat.

Challenges

  • Theaterisation in the armed forces isn’t working at the desired pace.
  • Despite the government’s claims of normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir following abrogation Article 370, a rise in civilian killings has posed questions.
  • Also, as many as 25 modules of Khalistan militancy were identified and neutralised by security forces in 2021, compared to 15 in 2020 and just seven in 2019.

Conclusion

While a broadening & deepening of the welfare state is a big positive of the current regime, the economic track record could have been much better. A deep slowdown in the west, the travails of China and India’s relative insularity to the global shocks can let India consolidate its recently regained faster-growing-economy status.