Context

• As climate change accelerates ice melt, the Arctic region is redrawing global trade routes and reshaping the balance of power.
• Against this backdrop, India’s Arctic ambitions present a compelling case for proactive engagement.
• Therefore, it is crucial to examine the multifaceted dimensions of India's Arctic policy, the promise and peril of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and the diplomatic tightrope India must walk between the West and Russia to safeguard its strategic and commercial interests.

Climate Change and the Arctic Opportunity

• Climate Change
  • The Arctic, once dismissed as an impenetrable frozen frontier, is now emerging as both a canary in the climate coal mine and a crucible of geopolitical contestation.
  • According to NASA, the Arctic’s September sea ice has been shrinking by 12.2% per decade since 1981—a harbinger of global warming’s relentless advance.
  • Yet, this ecological concern paradoxically opens up a new commercial opportunity: the Northern Sea Route.
  • Stretching across the Russian Arctic coastline, the NSR is poised to revolutionize trade by offering a significantly shorter path between Europe and Asia, slashing cargo transit time and freight costs.
• Arctic Opportunity
  • The strategic significance of this new corridor cannot be overstated.
  • India’s long-term economic and geopolitical calculus has begun to factor in the NSR.
  • With shipping volumes on the route surging from 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to nearly 38 million tonnes in 2024, the urgency for India to develop Arctic-ready infrastructure, such as ice-class ships and mega ports, is apparent.
  • Recognising this, India’s 2025-26 Budget includes a $3 billion Maritime Development Fund, a foundational step toward building the shipbuilding capacity necessary for Arctic navigation.

India’s Early Engagement and Evolving Arctic Policy

• India’s Arctic involvement is not new. It dates back to its signing of the Svalbard Treaty in 1920.
• More recently, India established its Arctic research base, Himadri, and became one of the few developing nations with a physical presence in the region.
• Furthermore, Indian think tanks and research institutes have begun modelling the Arctic’s impact on domestic phenomena, such as monsoon patterns and agricultural productivity, underscoring the interconnectedness of climate change and national development.
• The Arctic Policy released in 2022 sets a framework for India’s engagement, but its execution remains a work in progress.
• It needs to pivot from abstract principles to actionable strategies, including forging partnerships, promoting technological development, and enhancing India's diplomatic presence in Arctic governance structures such as the Arctic Council.
• The upcoming Arctic Circle India Forum in New Delhi in May 2025 offers a timely opportunity to catalyse this policy transition.

The Diplomatic Balancing Act: Russia, China, and the West

• India’s navigation of Arctic geopolitics must reconcile multiple, often conflicting interests.
• On one hand, Russia, with its expansive Arctic coastline and established infrastructure, is a natural partner.
• Bilateral discussions have already led to the formation of a working group on the NSR and initiatives like the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor.
• These developments align with India’s pragmatic approach to building alternate trade corridors.
• However, India’s Arctic alignment with Russia also places it adjacent to China's interests.
• China's Polar Silk Road is an extension of its Belt and Road Initiative aimed at circumventing traditional maritime chokepoints like the Malacca Strait.
• By strengthening NSR ties, India could unintentionally legitimise China's polar ambitions—a move that may not sit well with India’s strategic planners, particularly given the adversarial bilateral dynamics between the two Asian giants.
• Conversely, aligning too closely with the Western bloc—particularly the U.S.—risks alienating Russia and forfeiting access to Arctic resources largely under Russian control.
• Thus, India’s optimal strategy lies in balancing both ends of this spectrum. Collaborating with like-minded nations such as Japan and South Korea could offer a third path.
• All three nations share mutual apprehensions regarding China's Arctic advances and could collectively push for a more inclusive and equitable Arctic Council.

Conclusion

• India’s Arctic ambitions symbolise a critical juncture where commerce, climate, and diplomacy intersect.
• The NSR offers immense commercial promise, but it also demands technological readiness and strategic foresight.
• With the planet breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold, India's Arctic engagement must be guided by both caution and ambition.
• To lead responsibly, India should establish multilateral dialogues, invest in Arctic-ready infrastructure, and appoint a ‘polar ambassador’ to articulate its interests on the global stage.