Context:

• The Covid-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions in migration, halting mobility and exacerbating migrant vulnerabilities.
• Five years later, migration patterns have largely reverted to pre-pandemic trends, but new challenges and emerging factors such as climate change and economic transformations continue to shape migration in India.

Reverse Migration During Covid-19:

• The pandemic triggered an unprecedented urban-to-rural reverse migration.
• Government estimates suggest a net reverse migration of 44.13 million during the first lockdown and 26.3 million during the second.
• Migrants faced wage theft, food insecurity, lack of healthcare and education, discrimination, and brutality.
• Many families dependent on remittances suffered severe economic strain.

Return to Urban Migration and Rural Economic Challenges:

• The rural economy was unable to absorb the returning workforce.
• MGNREGA provided limited relief but could not sustain long-term employment.
• Factors driving return migration to urban areas:
  • Rural distress and low wages
  • Urban aspirations and economic opportunities
  • Climate change significantly impacts agriculture and allied activities, contributing to distress and aspirational out-migration (as observed in Odisha by FAO and IOM studies).

Urban Migration Trends and Government Initiatives:

• Urbanization is projected to continue, with 40% of India’s population expected to live in cities by 2026.
• Government initiatives like Smart Cities Mission (aims to develop 100 cities into modern urban hubs) encourage migration for economic growth.

Impact on International Migration:

• Indian emigrants faced job losses, wage cuts, poor living conditions, and health risks.
• Despite hardships, remittances remained resilient, sustaining many Indian households.
• Migration trends post-pandemic:
  • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remain key destinations.
  • Europe is attracting more skilled migrants, with Indians being top recipients of the EU Blue Card in 2023.
  • African nations are emerging as migration hubs for employment in IT, manufacturing, and healthcare, though challenges persist (e.g., 47 Jharkhand workers stranded in Cameroon).
  • Healthcare workers from India continue to be in high demand globally.
  • Student migration surged post-pandemic:
    • The Kerala Migration Survey 2023 indicates that the number of student emigrants from Kerala nearly doubled from 1.29 lakh in 2018 to 2.5 lakh in 2023.
    • The RBI data shows that outward remittances for studies abroad (peaking at $3,171 million in 2021) reflected a sharp increase in spending on international education.
    • We have also witnessed the student crisis during the Russia-Ukraine war.

Challenges in Migration Governance and Policy Interventions:

• Data gaps and the need for improved migration governance:
  • 2021 Census delay has hindered accurate assessment of post-pandemic migration trends.
  • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020-21 recorded a 28.9% migration rate, a marginal increase from 28.5% in NSS 64th Round (2007-08), but does not reflect long-term trends.
  • Lack of a comprehensive Indian emigrant database limits policy effectiveness.
• Social security and welfare initiatives:
  • e-Shram portal (2021) aims to create a National Database of Unorganised Workers (NDUW) and provide social security benefits, including insurance and access to subsidised food grains.
    • However, it faces issues due to lack of awareness and digital access.
  • One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme (2018) helps migrants access PDS benefits, but many still remain excluded.

The Kerala Model and Future Policy Directions:

• Kerala Migration Surveys (every five years since 1998) have significantly improved migration policy formulation.
• States like Odisha, Goa, Punjab, Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu have replicated this model.
• Expanding this approach nationwide would enhance migration governance and aid in better policy responses.

Conclusion:

• Five years after the Covid-19 crisis, India’s migration landscape is evolving.
• While urban migration is resuming and international emigration diversifying, new factors like climate change, global economic shifts, and policy interventions are influencing movement patterns.
• Strengthening migration governance through data-driven policy reforms and improved social security mechanisms is crucial for ensuring migrant welfare and economic stability.