How South India Deals with its Aging Population?

Oct. 22, 2024

What’s in Today’s Article?

Background:

In an unexpected move, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu announced that his government is working on a law to incentivize families to have more children.
His concerns arise from the state's declining young population, with fertility rates below the replacement level.
According to the CM, having fewer than two children is leading to a rapid decline in the younger population, and this could have long-term implications for the state.

Context & Concerns of Southern States:

CM’s remarks are part of a broader discussion regarding population trends in Southern India.
Southern states, like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, have successfully brought down their fertility rates over the years.
This success has contributed to an aging population, creating concerns about the future representation of these states in the Indian Parliament.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin even raised concerns about the potential reduction of South India's share in parliamentary seats due to low population growth.

India's Aging Population and Fertility Trends:

With the 2021 Census delayed, the most recent data on population projections come from a 2020 report by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
The report highlights several key findings:
Aging Population:
- Across India, the percentage of people aged 60+ is expected to increase significantly.
- However, this trend is more pronounced in Southern states, which achieved low fertility rates earlier than their Northern counterparts.
- For example, Uttar Pradesh is projected to reach the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children per woman) only by 2025, more than two decades after Andhra Pradesh.
Population Growth:
- Between 2011 and 2036, India's population is expected to grow by 31.1 crore people.
- Half of this growth will come from just five states: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.
- On the other hand, the five Southern states (AP, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) will contribute only 2.9 crore to the total population increase during the same period.
Older Population Doubling:
- The number of elderly persons (aged 60+) is expected to more than double, from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore in 2036.
- In Kerala, for example, nearly 1 in 4 people will be over 60 by 2036. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh is projected to have a younger population, with only 12% of its people in the 60+ bracket by 2036.

Why is an Aging Population a Concern?

An aging population and smaller overall population are two distinct issues.
An aging population raises concerns about the dependency ratio—the percentage of the population that is not working (those below 15 and above 60).
A high dependency ratio means that a larger portion of the population relies on the working-age group for economic support.
As a result, the state may have to invest more in healthcare and social security for the elderly.
On the other hand, a smaller population compared to other states could impact political representation in the Lok Sabha (House of the People).
Southern states, which achieved demographic transitions earlier, fear they could be penalized during electoral delimitation, losing seats in Parliament to Northern states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, where population growth continues to be higher.

Do Pro-Natalist Policies Work?

CM cited examples from countries like Japan, China, and Europe, where governments have attempted to boost fertility rates to counter aging populations.
However, experts argue that pro-natalist policies—policies encouraging families to have more children—have had limited success.
According to these experts, these policies generally fail, particularly in societies that have achieved a certain level of prosperity and education.
While Scandinavian countries have managed to stabilize fertility rates to some extent through family support systems, childcare services, and gender equality measures, countries like Japan and China have not seen significant success.
Even offering financial incentives is not enough to encourage families to have more children, as shown in the case of countries like France and South Korea.

Why CM Naidu’s Comments Matter?

CM’s remarks mark a significant shift in the political discourse surrounding population. Several decades ago, India faced concerns about overpopulation, with high fertility rates leading to rapid population growth.
Back then, politicians and policymakers were focused on controlling population growth to avoid potential crises.
Southern states, like Andhra Pradesh, played a crucial role in achieving Replacement Level of Fertility
Andhra Pradesh, for instance, reached the fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman in 2004.
In fact, Andhra Pradesh once had a law that barred individuals with more than two children from contesting local elections—a law that the CM repealed.
However, with declining fertility rates and India now being the world's most populous country, the political conversation is evolving.
The challenge now is balancing population control with ensuring there are enough young people to support economic growth.

What is the Way Forward?

While pro-natalist policies have proven largely ineffective, experts suggest that migration could help address demographic imbalances. Internal migration from Northern to Southern states could alleviate the issue of a shrinking workforce in the South.
Southern states can benefit from this by absorbing migrants who are already of working age, thus bypassing the costs associated with raising and educating a young population.
This is similar to the model employed by the United States, where immigration has helped sustain the country's economic dominance by providing a steady flow of working-age individuals.
Economists also argue that India's focus should be on improving the productivity of its labor force, rather than simply increasing the population.
By ensuring that India capitalizes on its ongoing demographic dividend—a large share of the population being of working age—the country can maximize economic growth.

Conclusion:

As Andhra Pradesh considers incentivizing larger families, the broader debate around fertility rates, aging populations, and political representation comes to the fore.
While the state faces real challenges related to its declining young population, global evidence suggests that pro-natalist policies may not be the answer.
Instead, a combination of migration, labor productivity improvements, and a focus on the demographic dividend could help balance India's population and economic needs.

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