Why in news?

Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s President, and eight others, including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, died in a helicopter crash on May 19.

What’s in today’s article?

• Geopolitical situation at the time of accident
• Iran under Raisi
• Implications of death of Iranian President

Geopolitical situation at the time of accident

• The timing of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death is highly significant given the current regional and domestic context.
• Tensions in West Asia are particularly high following Iran's first direct attack on Israel in April 2024, and the ongoing war in Gaza, where Iran supports Hamas and other anti-Israeli forces.
• Domestically, Iran has faced increasing protests in recent years, adding to the regime's challenges.
• Amid this turbulent backdrop, Iran now faces the additional uncertainty of electing a new president.

Iran under Raisi

• During Raisi’s tenure, Iran:
  • sought closer strategic and economic cooperation with Russia and China,
  • doubled down on its support for the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ (non-state actors such as Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah) and
  • expanded the country’s nuclear programme.
• During his tenure, Iran also adopted a more aggressive policy towards Israel, which saw the April 14 drone and missile attack.

Implications of death of Iranian President

• Domestic Impact
  • Succession Crisis
    • Raisi was considered a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
      • In Iran’s semi-representative theocratic system, the role of the elected president is limited compared to that of the Supreme Leader, who is appointed by a clerical body.
      • The President’s primary responsibility is to run the day-to-day affairs of the government.
      • On the other hand, critical policies and long-term strategies are set by the Supreme Leader.
    • His death may lead to a power struggle within Iran’s political elite, creating uncertainty and potential instability.
  • Political Uncertainty
    • The immediate effect includes heightened uncertainties in Iran’s domestic politics.
    • The process of selecting Raisi's successor could be contentious and may influence Iran’s future direction​.
• Economic Policy
  • The new president's economic policies could have implications for Iran's relations with other countries and its approach to issues such as sanctions and economic reform.
  • Raisi's clueless handling of the economy has been criticized, and his death could lead to changes in Iran's economic strategy.
• Regional Impact
  • Continuity in Foreign Policy
    • Despite Raisi's death, Iran’s fundamental foreign policy goals are unlikely to change significantly.
    • Iran's efforts to influence regional dynamics, including its adversarial stance towards Israel and the US, will continue​.
  • Relations with Neighbors
    • The death could affect Iran's interactions with regional powers, potentially impacting negotiations and alliances.
    • However, Iran’s long-standing strategies, particularly its support for the so-called axis of resistanceand its alliances with countries like Russia, are expected to persist​.
• Impact on India
  • India has built a good relationship with Iran since the revolution of 1979.
  • Despite setbacks in trade in recent years, ties due to American sanctions on Iran, India and Iran have maintained a strong bilateral partnership.
  • A prime example is India's significant investment in the Chabahar port project.
    • Earlier in May 2024, India signed a long-term agreement to further develop and operate one of the two terminals of the Chabahar port.
  • Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended President Raisi’s inauguration in August 2021 and returned to Tehran in January amid regional tensions.
    • At that time, Iran-backed Houthi militants were attacking vessels in the Red Sea, but India chose not to join a U.S.-led coalition against the Houthis.
    • This underscores its independent foreign policy stance.
  • India was careful not to take a direct position in the West Asian crisis.
    • When tensions broke out between Iran and Israel, India expressed deep concerns but stopped short of condemning any party.
  • The fact that India sent Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar to Tehran to offer condolences shows that retaining the current momentum in ties remains a priority for New Delhi.