Context

• India’s foreign policy, once celebrated for its strategic balance and nuanced diplomacy, is now confronting a profound existential crisis.
• From the intensifying China-Pakistan nexus to the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, the assumptions that underpinned India’s foreign policy for decades are now being severely tested.
• Therefore, it is important to examine the multiple dimensions of the current crisis, critique India's recent foreign policy choices, and propose key recalibrations to secure its strategic future.

Multiple Dimensions of the Current Crisis in India’s Foreign Policy

• The Breakdown of Strategic Equilibrium
  • India's foreign policy was traditionally designed to balance relationships across ideological and strategic divides.
  • However, recent events have disrupted this delicate equilibrium. The re-election of Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again doctrine, previously perceived as a boon for Indo-U.S. relations, has taken an unpredictable turn.
  • Trump’s claim to have mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, endorsed publicly by Pakistan’s military leadership but denied by India, has placed New Delhi on a potential collision course with Washington.
• Strategic Ambiguity in West Asia: A Failing Doctrine
  • India's policy of equidistance between Israel and Iran is another pillar now crumbling under the weight of international realignments.
  • The recent Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated dramatically following Israel’s targeted attacks on Iranian nuclear sites with American support, represents a significant shift in the global security landscape.
  • The use of the GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs by the U.S. marks a dangerous normalisation of the nuclear discourse in international politics.
  • India’s non-committal stance, issuing vague calls for restraint, has rendered it largely irrelevant in the debate.
  • Worse, it risks alienating both Israel and Iran, undermining years of diplomatic effort aimed at preserving strategic autonomy in West Asia.
• Neutrality: A Strategic Liability
  • In the present geopolitical climate, India’s long-standing posture of neutrality is increasingly being viewed as indecision or even weakness.
  • With mounting threats on its borders and little global support during the India, Pakistan conflict, New Delhi is discovering the limitations of non-alignment in a world leaning heavily toward hard power.
  • Despite its aspirations to lead the Global South, India has found few allies when needed most.

The China Factor

• China-Pakistan Nexus: A Growing Threat
  • Perhaps the most pressing threat to India's national security comes from the deepening military and strategic ties between China and Pakistan.
  • The India-Pakistan conflict in May should not be viewed as an isolated incident but as a harbinger of deeper, more sustained pressure.
  • China's infusion of advanced military technologies, such as the J-10C and JF-17 fighters into Pakistan’s arsenal, and its integration into Pakistan’s defence planning systems, presents a complex and evolving challenge.
  • This partnership is not merely transactional but strategically symbiotic, aiming to encircle and constrain India’s regional influence.
• China's Strategic Vision: Reading Between the Lines
  • China recently released white paper on National Security in the New Era which offers revealing insights into its strategic worldview.
  • By framing development and security as two wings of a single bird, China articulates a doctrine that places technological and supply chain security at the heart of its national strategy.
  • India would do well to study these documents with the same seriousness it reserves for overt military threats.

The Way Forward

• Lessons from Global Military Strategy
  • India must urgently assess its own preparedness for protracted and technologically complex conflicts.
  • Drawing lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war and the UK’s defence capability audit, India needs a comprehensive reassessment of its defence posture.
  • This includes evaluating its ammunition reserves, modernising its cyber and electromagnetic warfare infrastructure, and prioritizing artificial intelligence, drone countermeasures, and loitering munitions.
  • A piecemeal or reactive approach will no longer suffice in an era of hybrid warfare and high-speed escalations.
• Recalibrating India’s Foreign Policy: A Strategic Imperative
  • To navigate this uncertain terrain, India must abandon outdated doctrines and adopt a more pragmatic, assertive, and strategically consistent foreign policy.
  • First, it needs to move beyond moralistic calls for restraint and actively engage in shaping regional security narratives.
  • Second, New Delhi must forge deeper security partnerships, not only with Western powers but also with key Asian and African states, based on mutual defence, intelligence sharing, and technological cooperation.
  • Third, India must invest in credible hard power capabilities while enhancing its diplomatic visibility in crisis zones like West Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

• The continued reliance on non-alignment and neutrality has rendered India vulnerable and strategically sidelined.
• In the face of an aggressive China-Pakistan alliance, a transactional and unpredictable United States, and rapidly shifting regional fault lines, India must evolve its foreign policy from one rooted in moral posturing to one grounded in strategic realism.
• A clear-eyed recognition of global power dynamics and a recalibration of its defence and diplomatic strategies are not just advisable, they are essential for safeguarding India’s sovereignty and global standing in the years to come.