Context

• India’s dependence on imported hydrocarbons represents not merely an economic challenge but a national security vulnerability.
• With over 85% of crude oil and more than 50% of natural gas imported, the country’s energy lifelines are at the mercy of geopolitical volatility, fragile supply chains, and sudden market shocks.
• The reliance on discounted Russian barrels since 2022 has provided temporary fiscal relief, yet it underscores the perils of overdependence on a single source.
• The pursuit of energy sovereignty, therefore, is not a policy preference but a survival strategy for India in a turbulent global order.

Lessons from Global Energy Flashpoints

• The fragility of global energy security is not hypothetical; it is a historical fact.
• Five pivotal events highlight how crises have repeatedly forced nations to rethink energy strategy:
  • The 1973 Oil Embargo exposed Western vulnerability to OPEC’s leverage but also triggered innovations in strategic reserves and diversification.
  • The Fukushima Disaster (2011) undermined nuclear confidence, forcing Japan and others toward coal and gas, only to rediscover the necessity of zero-carbon baseloads.
  • The Texas Freeze (2021) demonstrated the inadequacy of infrastructure built for cost efficiency rather than resilience.
  • The Russia-Ukraine War (2022) showed the dangers of single-sourced energy, as Europe scrambled to replace Russian gas at exorbitant costs.
  • The Iberian Peninsula Blackout (2025) revealed the risks of excessive reliance on intermittent renewables without sufficient dispatchable backup.
• Each shock has redefined global energy thinking, proving that resilience must precede ambition.
• Energy transitions are not instant switches but pathways requiring foresight, balance, and redundancy.

India’s Current Vulnerability

• In 2023-24, crude oil and natural gas imports accounted for $170 billion, or more than a quarter of India’s merchandise import bill.
• Such outflows depress the rupee, inflate the trade deficit, and constrain macroeconomic stability.
• The June 2025 Israel-Iran confrontation, narrowly avoiding disruption of 20 million barrels per day of global oil flows, served as a stark reminder of how external crises can instantly destabilise energy-dependent economies like India.

Towards an Energy Sovereignty Doctrine

• Coal Gasification and Indigenous Energy
  • With 150 billion tonnes of coal reserves, India can no longer dismiss domestic coal due to high ash content.
  • Modern gasification and carbon capture can unlock syngas, hydrogen, methanol, and fertilizers, converting a liability into an asset.
  • Biofuels and Rural Empowerment
  • Ethanol blending has already reduced crude dependence and transferred over ₹92,000 crore to farmers.
  • Scaling bio-CNG through the SATAT scheme not only diversifies energy sources but restores soil health in North India, integrating sustainability with rural economic revival.
• Nuclear Power as a Dispatchable Backbone
  • India’s stagnant 8.8 GW nuclear capacity must be expanded through thorium research, uranium partnerships, and Small Modular Reactors.
  • Nuclear power provides the reliable baseload necessary in a renewable-dominated grid.
• Green Hydrogen and Technology Sovereignty
  • The ambition of producing 5 million metric tonnes by 2030 requires indigenous electrolyser and catalyst industries.
  • True sovereignty will come not from imports of green hydrogen but from mastering the technology chain itself.
  • Pumped Hydro for Grid Inertia
  • As renewable penetration deepens, pumped hydro offers proven large-scale storage and grid stability.
  • India’s diverse topography can be harnessed to ensure resilience against intermittency.

The Age of Sovereignty

• India has already reduced its dependence on West Asian oil from 60% to below 45%, a deliberate strategy of diversification.
• Yet the future cannot rest solely on shifting suppliers. The defining competition of the 21st century will not be over oil reserves but over which nations can secure uninterrupted, affordable, and indigenous energy.
• The Israel-Iran ceasefire represents a narrow escape, a chance to act before the next shock.
• India must seize this window not with short-term fixes but with structural reforms that blend ambition with realism.
• Sovereignty lies not in slogans but in the patient construction of capacity across coal, biofuels, nuclear, hydrogen, and pumped hydro.

Conclusion

• India stands at an inflection point; Every past global energy pivot has been forged in crisis. Today, India has the rare opportunity to pivot by foresight rather than force.
• The five foundational pillars of energy sovereignty are not peripheral to the global energy transition; they are its sovereign spine.
• In an uncertain century, the most precious resource will not be crude oil but uninterrupted, indigenous, and resilient energy.
• Building that future is no longer optional. It is the essence of sovereignty itself.