Context

• A second term for Donald Trump as U.S. President could present both opportunities and challenges for India, despite a positive history during his first administration.
• While there is strong rapport between Prime Minister Modi and Donald Trump, and key Indian advisors are well acquainted with Trump’s team, the dynamics of Trump’s radically transformative policies may still require India to rethink its strategy.
• Considering these points, it is important to have an assessment on themes of concerns, new opportunities for India and how India can navigate keeping its interests at the core.

An Overview of Opportunities and Concerns for Indo-US Ties Under New Trump Administration

• There are many convergences between the worldview of the Modi government and the Trump team.
• The problem, however, comes from the radical nature of Trump’s policy framework that breaks away from the many familiar features of the global economic and political order.
• Dealing with Trump’s second term is not just about finding policy fixes for the many divergences that are bound to emerge between Delhi and Washington.
• It demands coming to terms with Trump’s plans to overhaul the global order and the US role in it.
• That is compounded by two additional factors; one is Trump’s intensely transactional approach and the other is the strengthening of America’s position in relation to Europe and China.

A Detailed Analysis of Themes of Concern for India from Trump’s Worldview

• Trump’s Deregulation and Technological Innovation Plan
  • Trump’s goal to dismantle the regulatory state involves downsizing federal bureaucracy and loosening regulatory restrictions, particularly in advanced technology sectors like artificial intelligence, space, crypto, and energy.
  • Both Wall Street and Silicon Valley have been irritated by the expanding regulations under the Biden Administration and fully back Trump’s plans to lift all constraints on US techno-capitalism. 
  • His policies resonate with a broader conservative agenda to develop unfettered technological and capital growth, in sharp contrast to the more regulated approach under the Biden administration.
  • For India, which also has significant technological ambitions, Trump’s agenda could serve as both a model and a warning.
• Re-Industrialisation and Trade Policy
  • Unlike the Biden administration’s focus on subsidies, Trump favours tariffs to protect domestic industries, with intentions to impose tariffs on all imports and particularly high tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • This tariff-heavy approach not only targets economic rivals but also extends to allies like Europe and could affect trade relations with India, which has become the U.S.’s largest commercial partner.
• Trump’s Transactional Approach
  • Defence cooperation has flourished between the U.S. and India in recent years, with the Biden administration focusing on technology and defence partnerships.
  • Under Trump, maintaining and expanding these relationships will likely remain a priority, but Trump’s transactional approach will necessitate tangible concessions from India.
  • Trump’s belief in mutual exchanges rather than one-sided favours will drive him to ask, what is in it for the U.S.?
  • India might need to adjust its defence policies and find ways to reciprocate more directly, moving beyond the notion of a “free lunch” to a more balanced, mutual exchange.
• America’s Discomfort on the India’s Quad Standing
  • The U.S. has long viewed a strong India as beneficial in countering China’s influence.
  • However, under Trump’s potential leadership, India might have to provide more visible support for American interests or deepen its commitments to mutual defence initiatives.
  • This shift may require India to enhance its contributions to the Quad’s security framework and, potentially, make compromises in areas like market access or technology sharing.
  • The Trump administration previously revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in 2017, signalling a commitment to countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • The problem, however, will be with the Republican strategists’ impatience with Delhi’s reluctance to make the Quad a robust regional security coalition
  • Many of them worry that the Quad has become an organisation with a wide-ranging non-military agenda and is losing primary focus on producing a military balance against Beijing.
  • Addressing this US discomfort on the Quad will be a major issue for Indian policy.

Geopolitical Opportunities for India Under New Trump Administration

• Could Ease American Pressure on India in Ukraine War
  • Trump’s focus on ending the war in Ukraine and his willingness to explore a potential deal with President Vladimir Putin would ease some of the American pressures that India has had to face in the last few years on isolating Russia.
  • There is much speculation about Trump abandoning Biden’s policy of fighting both Russia and China and finding a way to separate them.
  • Negotiating a new ‘grand European bargain’ between America and Russia has not been easy; if Trump does the impossible, it will suit India’s geopolitical calculus on Eurasia.
• New Opportunity for Security Partnership in Europe
  • Trump’s bid to end war in Europe also opens the door for India to make more active contributions to peace in Ukraine.
  • Even more important, as Trump puts pressure on Europe to defend itself, Delhi has every reason to intensify its security partnership with key European powers as well as, collectively, with Brussels.

The Path Forward for India to Align with Trump’s Worldview Keeping its Interest at the Core

• Encourage Private Investment with Less Regulatory Barriers
  • India’s own model of state-led technology governance may struggle to compete with the accelerated U.S. technological sector.
  • So, India could risk lagging behind if it does not reevaluate its policies to match Trump’s pace of innovation.
  • A shift toward supporting private-sector technological development and encouraging partnerships with U.S. tech giants may be essential.
  • As U.S. techno-capitalism advances rapidly, India might need to embrace private investment and reduce regulatory barriers to integrate more effectively with global tech dynamics.
• Careful Negotiation of Trade Policies
  • India’s existing trade policies might require significant adjustments to align with Trump’s demand for fair trade.
  • The two countries have previously clashed over market access, and Trump’s emphasis on trade balance might renew these tensions.
  • India may need to negotiate carefully to maintain favourable access to the U.S. market, possibly by addressing trade deficits or modifying its own tariffs on American goods.
• Sustainable Immigration and Talent Exchange
  • Immigration policy is a cornerstone of Trump’s political appeal, and while he opposes illegal immigration, he has acknowledged the need for highly skilled foreign talent, particularly from India, to sustain U.S. technological dominance.
  • His distinction between legal” and “illegal immigration opens avenues for India to advocate for expanded opportunities for skilled workers, especially in engineering and technology, which are vital to U.S. innovation.
  • India’s interest lies in collaborating with Trump’s administration to create a framework that supports good immigration while adhering to stricter regulations.
  • Going beyond the H-1B visa program, India could work toward a sustainable talent pipeline that bolsters U.S.-India technological collaboration and minimises obstacles for Indian talent contributing to American industries.

Conclusion

• A second Trump presidency offers India opportunities to deepen its relationship with the U.S. but also presents challenges that demand careful strategy and adaptation.
• Trump is likely to demand some Indian ‘pro’ for American ‘quid’, and his statecraft is based on the notion that favours must be reciprocated rather than one-sided.
• India could find itself on a steep learning curve as it figures that there may be no ‘free lunch’ under Trump’s second term, and Delhi might have ‘to give something to get something.’