Context

• The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound transformations, and nowhere is this shift more surprising than in the Arctic.
• Once a domain celebrated for its scientific cooperation and environmental stewardship, the Arctic is rapidly morphing into a contested geopolitical and military arena.
• As conflict zones proliferate worldwide, the polar north has emerged as a new frontier of competition, where great powers jostle for influence, resources, and strategic advantage.

The Arctic’s Rising Strategic Importance and The Steady March of Militarisation

• The Arctic’s Rising Strategic Importance
  • The renewed strategic focus on the Arctic is not merely the result of escalating geopolitical ambitions.
  • Crucially, climate change has played an enabling role by reshaping the physical and economic contours of the region.
  • The Northern Sea Route (NSR), once navigable only during brief summer months, is now increasingly accessible year-round.
  • This development has heightened global interest, with the NSR promising to redraw major trade routes and unlock untapped resource wealth.
  • Consequently, traffic along these corridors has surged, accentuating the Arctic’s transition from a scientific preserve to a geopolitical hotspot.
• The Steady March of Militarisation
  • Parallel to these commercial opportunities is a more troubling trend: the militarisation of the high north.
  • Arctic states are not only reviving dormant military installations but also enhancing their operational capabilities through submarine deployments and conspicuous shows of force.
  • Although this militarisation is not entirely new, its intensification marks a significant shift in the stakes for control and influence.
  • A symbolic turning point came in 2019 when U.S. President Donald Trump proposed purchasing Greenland, a move widely dismissed as absurd but, in reality, underscoring the Arctic’s growing centrality in global power politics.

India’s Paradoxical Posture and Strategic Stakes for India

• India’s Paradoxical Posture
  • For non-Arctic nations such as India, these shifts hold significant implications. Yet, India’s response has been paradoxically subdued.
  • The country's 2022 Arctic Policy is commendable for its clarity and focus on climate science, environmental protection, and sustainable development.
  • It draws strength from India’s experience with the Himalayan Third Pole, recognizing the interconnectedness between polar changes and South Asia’s water security.
  • However, the policy’s emphasis remains firmly on scientific and environmental dimensions, underplaying the Arctic’s fast-evolving strategic realities.
  • India’s current posture appears increasingly out of step with the region’s new dynamics.
  • While the Arctic Council and India’s research activities in Svalbard testify to a sustained presence, these initiatives are rooted in a bygone era of cooperative diplomacy.
  • As the Arctic order frays under the weight of geopolitical rivalry, India’s reliance on scientific diplomacy risks marginalisation.
• Strategic Stakes for India
  • The Arctic’s geopolitical recalibration is not a distant concern for India; its ramifications are tangible and far-reaching.
  • As the NSR gains prominence, India’s traditional dominance over Indian Ocean trade routes may come under pressure, challenging its vision of becoming a linchpin of Indo-Pacific connectivity.
  • The deepening collaboration between Russia and China in the Arctic, coupled with China’s growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, blurs the line between the Arctic and Indo-Pacific theatres, compelling India to reassess its regional strategies.
  • Moreover, India faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
  • Its historical ties with Russia are increasingly scrutinised by Nordic states, particularly in the wake of Russia’s assertive posture in Ukraine.
  • New Delhi has yet to convincingly articulate how its principle of strategic autonomy can align with the evolving interests of its Arctic partners.

The Way Forward: Toward a More Purposeful Arctic Engagement

• India’s future in the Arctic demands a strategic recalibration, one that preserves its environmental ethos while embedding a sharper geopolitical focus.
• A multi-pronged strategy is imperative. First, institutionalising Arctic engagement through dedicated desks in the Foreign and Defence Ministries, supported by regular inter-agency coordination and think tank collaboration, would establish a robust policy framework.
• Second, India should actively seek partnerships with like-minded Arctic states in dual-use areas such as polar logistics, maritime domain awareness, and satellite monitoring, enhancing its credibility while avoiding overt militarisation.
• Third, as new governance forums arise, India must secure its place in shaping rules and standards concerning infrastructure, shipping, and the blue economy, always engaging local communities with respect and restraint.

Conclusion

• India’s Arctic strategy, while thoughtful in its scientific and environmental emphasis, is no longer sufficient in the face of mounting geopolitical rivalries.
• The Arctic is no longer merely a zone of principle-driven cooperation; it is increasingly defined by power politics.
• If India fails to adapt its approach, it risks being sidelined in the emerging Arctic order.
• A more integrated and strategic engagement, balancing climate consciousness with pragmatic geopolitics, will be vital for safeguarding India’s long-term interests in this rapidly transforming region.