Context:

• PM Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia reflects a maturing bilateral relationship.
• Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), Saudi Arabia is undergoing profound political, economic, and social transformation.
• The visit signifies a transformative bilateral engagement, strategic recalibration in India’s West Asia policy and Saudi Arabia’s shift toward global multi-alignment.

Historical Context - From Neglect to Strategic Priority:

• Underperformance in earlier decades:
  • Indian Prime Ministerial visits to Saudi Arabia between 1947–2014: Nehru (1955), Indira Gandhi (1982), Manmohan Singh (2010).
  • Reflects past under-prioritisation due to ideological posturing, Pakistan-centric concerns, and low political investment.
• Shift since the 21st century - Turning points:
  • Jaswant Singh’s visit (2000) and King Abdullah’s visit to India (2006).
  • Initiated de-hyphenation of Saudi Arabia from Pakistan in Indian foreign policy.
  • Manmohan Singh’s 2010 visit broadened strategic cooperation, especially in counterterrorism.

India’s Strategic Reorientation under Modi:

• Modi’s diplomatic outreach:
  • Three visits to Saudi Arabia (2016, 2019, 2024).
  • Elevation of the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia, in India’s Act West Policy.
• Key areas of cooperation:
  • Energy security: Continued reliance on Saudi crude oil.
  • Economic collaboration: Investment, infrastructure, and digital economy.
  • Technology and connectivity: Collaboration in digital infrastructure and logistics.
  • Security cooperation: Counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, maritime security.

The MbS Era - Reform, Realignment, and Resurgence:

• Consolidation of power:
  • MbS appointed Crown Prince in 2017, Prime Minister in 2022.
  • Shift from consensus-based governance to centralised authority.
  • Increase in administrative efficiency but concerns over authoritarian tendencies.
• Vision 2030 - Economic diversification:
  • Launched in 2016 to reduce oil dependency.
  • Focus on:
    • Tourism (e.g., NEOM project).
    • Technology and innovation.
    • Entertainment and renewable energy.
    • Partial privatisation of Saudi Aramco to attract FDI.

Social Liberalisation in the Kingdom:

• Progressive reforms:
  • Women’s rights expanded: Right to drive, increased workforce participation.
  • Public entertainment normalised: Cinemas, concerts, tourism initiatives.
• Promotion of moderate Islam:
  • Critical for global counter-extremism.
  • Realignment of Saudi religious identity to promote tolerance and coexistence.

Foreign Policy Shift - From Dependence to Multi-Alignment:

• Assertiveness and pragmatism:
  • Military intervention in Yemen, blockade on Qatar, opposition to Iran.
  • Subsequent diplomatic recalibration: Rapprochement with Qatar, Turkey, and Iran.
• Expanding strategic horizons:
  • Move beyond US dependence: Stronger ties with China, Russia, and Global South, and its decision to join the expanded BRICS grouping.
  • Engagement in multipolar diplomacy: Mediation in Ukraine crisis, dialogue facilitation between US-Russia.
• Normalisation with Israel:
  • Conditional support for Israel-Palestine peace process (Two-State solution).
  • Strategic balancing in regional geopolitics.

Convergence with India’s Middle East Policy:

• Parallel leadership trajectories:
  • Modi (2014) and MbS (2015–17) symbolise assertive, pragmatic leadership.
  • Both leaders focus on interest-based diplomacy, domestic modernisation, and global positioning.
• Strategic alignment: India and Saudi Arabia share:
  • Non-ideological pragmatism.
  • Focus on economic transformation.
  • Drive toward regional leadership and global engagement.

Conclusion - The Road Ahead:

• Modi’s visit reflects the deepening Indo-Saudi partnership grounded in mutual strategic interests.
• Saudi Arabia’s domestic reforms and foreign policy realignment under MbS present new avenues for India’s energy security, diaspora welfare, economic cooperation, and geopolitical influence in West Asia.