Why in News? As Donald Trump has gained the votes required to become the U.S.’s 47th President, we will try to analyse India-US ties during Trump 1.0 and what Trump 2.0 means for India.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Trump's First Term - Strengthening Indo-US Strategic Ties
• Trump's First Term - Issues in the India-US Ties
• Trump's Return and its Impact on India-US Relations
• Conclusion

Trump's First Term - Strengthening Indo-US Strategic Ties:

• Overview:
  • During Donald Trump’s presidency (2017-2021), the United States and India transitioned from strategic partners to indispensable allies.
  • This period saw unprecedented cooperation in defence, counter-terrorism, and energy but also presented certain challenges, particularly around trade and immigration.
• Enhanced cooperation in defence, terrorism, and energy:
  • High-level diplomatic engagement: PM Narendra Modi's 2017 White House visit set the tone for close diplomatic ties, culminating in Trump's historic visit to India in 2020.
  • Counter-terrorism support: The US firmly supported India’s stance on terrorism, including backing the designation of Jaish-e-Mohammad chief, Masood Azhar, as a global terrorist and advocating Pakistan's grey-listing by the FATF.
  • Defence technology and trade: Under Trump, India’s defence imports from the US reached $18 billion, and India gained access to advanced American defence technology, strengthening military capabilities and diversifying defence procurement.
  • Strategic energy partnership: The 2018 Strategic Energy Partnership facilitated India’s import of American crude and LNG, making the US India’s sixth largest source of hydrocarbon imports.
• Confronting China as a common strategic rival:
  • Trump’s policies framed China as a mutual threat, enhancing Indo-US alignment in strategic goals.
  • His administration revived the Quad alliance and promoted the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China's growing influence.

 Trump's First Term - Issues in the India-US Ties:

• Energy restrictions: Trump pressured India to halt oil imports from Iran, marking a stark shift in India's energy sourcing strategy.
• Trade and tariffs: Trade disputes arose as Trump demanded lower tariffs, notably on Harley Davidson motorcycles, reflecting his broader stance on a fairer trade balance.
• Immigration policy: The Trump administration’s restrictive immigration stance, including limits on H1-B visas, strained the relationship due to India’s reliance on skilled migration to the US.
• Kashmir mediation controversy: Trump’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan on Kashmir sparked backlash in India, as it went against India’s stance on third-party involvement in the issue.

Trump's Return and its Impact on India-US Relations:

• Overview:
  • With Donald Trump set to re-enter the White House, India anticipates both benefits and challenges in the upcoming phase of bilateral relations.
  • Building on Trump’s earlier tenure, New Delhi expects continuity in defence, energy cooperation, and strategic ties, alongside possible friction in trade and sensitive diplomatic interactions.
• Opportunities for stronger India-US ties under Trump:
  • Reviving trade and defence deals:
    • Trump has expressed interest in resuming the Free Trade Agreement talks.
    • Expanded U.S. military hardware sales could further bolster India’s defence capabilities.
  • Focus on energy independence: As seen with the earlier MoU for the Driftwood LNG plant, potentially reviving investments and boosting India's energy security.
  • Less pressure on domestic issues: Compared to the Biden administration, issues like press freedoms, treatment of NGOs, and human rights may see less scrutiny under Trump, easing diplomatic tensions.
  • Stance on regional issues:
    • Trump’s stance of cancelling the majority of U.S. funding to Pakistan during his last term is likely to continue.
    • Also, crackdown on Khalistani organisations is anticipated during Trump 2.0.
• Potential areas of friction:
  • Trump’s tariff policy: Trump's focus on reducing trade tariffs might reignite disputes over India’s tariffs, straining the economic partnership.
  • Diplomatic mis-steps: For instance, Trump’s previous remarks on Kashmir mediation and India’s conflict with China were met with strong denials from New Delhi.
  • Unpredictable sanctions on oil imports:
    • Under Trump, India faced pressure to cut off oil imports from Iran and Venezuela, risking its energy stability.
    • Similar policies could emerge, impacting India’s energy policy and regional diplomacy.

Conclusion:

• Trump’s first term reshaped Indo-US relations and India anticipates both opportunities and obstacles with Trump’s return to the presidency.
• Shifting regional dynamics will require careful navigation to maintain a balanced and productive partnership.