Why in News?

The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), India’s top national security body, has taken strict measures against Pakistan after finding cross-border links in a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people.

In response, India has launched a 5-point action plan targeting Pakistan’s infrastructure, diplomatic presence, and cross-border movement.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• India’s Response to the Pahalgam Terror Attack
• Geopolitical Isolation of Pakistan
• Perception in Islamabad: India is Taking Advantage
• The Pahalgam Attack: Pakistan’s Desperate Gambit
• India’s Strategic Path Forward
• Conclusion: Focus on Kashmir’s Development

India’s Response to the Pahalgam Terror Attack

• Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty
  • India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, which governs river water sharing, until Pakistan stops supporting cross-border terrorism.
  • This marks a major diplomatic shift since the treaty was signed in 1960.
• Closure of Attari-Wagah Border Check Post
  • India has closed the Attari Integrated Check Post, halting all cross-border movement of people and goods.
  • Those already in India with valid documents may return by 01 May 2025.
• Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES)
  • India has suspended the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals.
  • All existing SVES visas are cancelled, and Pakistani nationals in India under the scheme must leave within 48 hours.
• Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors
  • India has expelled all Pakistani military, naval, and air advisors from the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi, declaring them Persona Non Grata.
  • Indian military advisors in Islamabad will also be withdrawn.
• Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel
  • India will reduce its diplomatic staff in Pakistan from 55 to 30 by 01 May 2025, significantly scaling down bilateral diplomatic engagement.

Geopolitical Isolation of Pakistan

• Loss of US Leverage
  • Post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan lost strategic importance.
  • The US no longer provides economic support, unlike in previous years.
• Declining Gulf Support
  • Gulf nations have refused financial aid, showing frustration with Pakistan’s lack of reciprocity and repeated bailouts.
• Strained China Relations
  • Despite China’s major investments under the Belt and Road Initiative, projects are stalled due to:
    • Corruption
    • Insecurity, including attacks on Chinese personnel
    • China’s trust and enthusiasm for Pakistan have declined.
• Afghanistan Turns Hostile
• Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, once expected to offer Pakistan “strategic depth”, has become a security threat.
• Increased attacks along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
• Tensions with Iran
  • Baloch militants killed Pakistani workers in Iran recently.
  • Both countries have engaged in cross-border strikes targeting militant camps.

Perception in Islamabad: India is Taking Advantage

• Pakistan sees India’s growing confidence and regional assertiveness as an attempt to marginalise and isolate it.
• India now treats Pakistan as irrelevant, especially in its Kashmir policy, evidenced by the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
• Record tourism in Kashmir and economic improvements signal stability, reinforcing India’s narrative of normalcy.
• US "de-hyphenation" of its relations (treating India and Pakistan separately) underscores Pakistan’s diminished relevance.
• PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and US VP J.D. Vance’s visit to India, while skipping Pakistan, highlight its geopolitical isolation.

The Pahalgam Attack: Pakistan’s Desperate Gambit

• Seen as a calculated provocation to signal that Pakistan still matters in regional geopolitics.
• Army Chief General Asim Munir’s rhetoric on the “two-nation theory” and Kashmir being the “jugular vein” lays the ideological groundwork.
• The timing of the attack coinciding with global diplomatic engagements suggests a message to the world: Pakistan remains a critical regional actor.
• Even negative global attention, Pakistan hopes, could result in renewed engagement, breaking its current isolation.

India’s Strategic Path Forward

• Immediate Internal Response
  • Conduct a security audit to identify lapses.
  • Avoid politicisation; involve elected state government (e.g., National Conference) in stabilisation efforts.
  • Ensure that tourism and development in Kashmir are not derailed.
• Diplomatic Strategy
  • Maintain pressure to keep Pakistan diplomatically isolated.
  • Prevent international actors from seeing terror as a valid means to draw engagement.

Conclusion: Focus on Kashmir’s Development

India’s long-term approach should centre on the people of Kashmir. The Pahalgam attack must not reverse the progress towards stability and prosperity in the region.

India must strike a balance between strategic assertiveness and pragmatic engagement.