Context:

• India, once a leading producer and exporter of cotton, is now facing a severe decline in production and has become a net importer of the natural fibre.
• The crisis is largely due to policy paralysis and restrictions on genetically modified (GM) crops rather than external factors.

The Rise of India's Cotton Production:

• Technological advancements: India became a major cotton producer due to hybrid technology and later, genetically modified (GM) Bt cotton.
• GM cotton revolution:
  • 1970: H-4, the world’s first cotton hybrid, developed by C.T. Patel.
  • 1972: Varalaxmi, the first interspecific cotton hybrid, developed by B.H. Katarki.
  • 2002-03: Introduction of GM Bt cotton, which offered resistance against the American bollworm.
  • 2006: Bollgard-II technology introduced, providing additional protection against pests.
  • 2013-14: 95% of India's cotton cultivation adopted Bt cotton, pushing yield to a peak of 566 kg per hectare.

The Decline in Cotton Production:

• Production trends:
  • 2002-03 to 2013-14: Production surged from 13.6 million bales (mb, 1 bale=170 kg) to 39.8 mb. The imports halved to 1.1 mb and exports surged well over hundredfold to 11.6 mb (from not even 0.1 mb in 2002-03).
  • 2024-25: Projected at 29.5 mb, the lowest since 2008-09.
  • Imports surpassing exports: 3 mb imports vs. 1.7 mb exports.
• Reasons for decline:
  • Policy restrictions on GM technology and regulatory hurdles. For example, the treatment of GM crops as “hazardous substances” under the Environment Protection Act, 1986.
  • Resistance to scientific advancements in agriculture.
  • Pink bollworm infestation due to lack of new pest-resistant varieties.

Regulatory and Policy Failures:

• Ban on GM crops:
  • 2010: Moratorium on GM Bt brinjal, setting a precedent for halting GM crop approvals.
  • Field trials of new GM cotton hybrids blocked under the NDA government.
  • Regulatory deadlock despite scientific validation and biosafety data.
• Judicial and activist interventions:
  • Activist-driven opposition led to stagnation in agricultural biotech research.
  • Courts stepping into technical domains have further slowed progress.

Economic Implications:

• Impact on trade:
  • A country that was the world’s no. 1 producer in 2015-16 and a close second biggest exporter to the US by 2011-12 has today been “inundated” by American, Australian, Egyptian and Brazilian cotton.
  • Cotton imports doubled in value in 2024-25 compared to the previous year (from $518.4 million to $1,040.4 million) alongside a dip in exports (from $729.4 million to $660.5 million).
  • Pressure from the US and Brazil to remove the 11% import duty on cotton.
• Impact on farmers:
  • Indian farmers are denied access to the latest GM technologies.
  • Despite resistance to GM crops, GM soyameal and corn are being imported.

Need for Policy Reforms:

• Scientific approach over activism: Policy decisions should be based on scientific validation rather than public consultations dominated by activists.
• Revival of GM research: Approval of new pest-resistant GM cotton varieties. Establishment of a transparent and evidence-based regulatory framework.
• Reducing import dependence: Encouraging domestic production through technology adoption. Balancing environmental concerns with the need for agricultural progress.

Conclusion:

• In 1853, Karl Marx famously wrote how British rule “broke up the Indian handloom and destroyed the spinning wheel”, and finally “inundated the very mother country of cotton with cottons”.
• Something similar has taken place with Indian cotton over the last decade. However, it was not by any grand imperialist design, but by sheer domestic policy paralysis and ineptitude.
• India’s cotton crisis underscores the urgent need for a balanced, science-driven approach to agricultural policy.
• The failure to act decisively has not only hurt farmers but also made India reliant on foreign cotton, benefiting global competitors like the US and Brazil.