Context:

• The 2020 second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict signalled a turning point in modern warfare, showcasing drones as central to combat operations.
• This trend was reinforced for India and Pakistan during Operation Sindoor (May 7–10), where unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) advanced beyond reconnaissance to play a decisive role in precision strikes.
• This article highlights the transformation of drone warfare from reconnaissance to decisive strike capabilities, India’s push for modernising its UAV fleet, and the strategic opportunities in the Indo-Pacific drone market amid declining U.S. dominance.

India’s Push for Drone Modernisation

• Following Operation Sindoor, India has intensified efforts to modernise its unmanned aerial capabilities.
• In 2024, it secured 31 MQ-9B Reapers from the US, including SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian variants, to boost maritime surveillance and strategic cooperation.
• However, these meet only part of India’s diverse defence needs across high-altitude, contested borders with Pakistan and China.
• The country requires high-altitude, long-range fixed-wing drones for heavy payload precision strikes, along with smaller, cost-effective systems for targeted missions.
• Currently, India operates older Israeli systems like the Harop loitering munition and Heron medium-altitude drones, which are effective but lag behind cutting-edge global models.
• Much of its fleet consists of legacy imports from before the last decade, supplemented by a few indigenous platforms, highlighting the need for broader and faster upgrades.

India’s Evolving Drone Procurement Strategy

• While India has long sourced advanced drones from the U.S., it is now rethinking this approach, favouring American components like power plants and electronic payloads over complete systems.
• The global UAV market is currently dominated by the U.S., China, Türkiye, and Israel — but American drones have faced criticism for lagging behind rivals from Russia and China.
• Reports suggest that strict adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has left the U.S. with only 8% of the export market by the end of 2023, far behind China and Türkiye, though recent reforms may expand its market share.
• In the meantime, India is addressing capability gaps through imports, joint ventures, and domestic production, heavily depending on Israel and select European suppliers.
• Given strained relations with both China and Türkiye, these countries are unlikely to be sources for critical defence technology.
• Looking ahead, India not only needs to secure its own UAV requirements but could also leverage its technological progress to become a significant fixed-wing UAV supplier for the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s Growing Influence and India’s Strategic Opportunity

• Several Indo-Pacific nations — including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan — face persistent tensions with China, particularly over disputed maritime territories.
• For these countries, Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is crucial to counter China’s ‘gray-zone’ tactics, such as deploying coast guard and maritime militia to assert claims, and to safeguard fisheries, energy exploration zones, and sovereignty from encroachment.
  • Gray-zone tactics refer to coercive actions taken by states or non-state actors that fall between traditional peace and open warfare.
• While Israel is unlikely to be a dependable defence supplier due to its ongoing West Asia conflict, Türkiye has emerged as a key global source of cost-effective, high-performance drones.
• However, given India’s adversarial ties with Türkiye, it is in New Delhi’s interest to limit Ankara’s influence through drone diplomacy in the region.
• Many Indo-Pacific nations share geographical and operational needs similar to India — high-altitude border surveillance and extensive maritime monitoring.
• If India develops UAV systems tailored to its own requirements, these could be exported to meet the strategic and operational needs of regional partners, enhancing India’s defence diplomacy and counterbalancing China’s growing footprint.

India’s Opportunity in the Indo-Pacific Drone Market

• The decline of U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific drone market has created a contested space that India could strategically occupy.
• By filling this gap, India stands to enhance both its trade and geopolitical influence while meeting its own defence requirements.
• Despite hurdles such as bureaucratic inefficiency and a public sector-heavy defence ecosystem, India can leverage its strong defence ties with Israel and the experience gained from joint ventures to strengthen its domestic UAV capabilities.
• Rather than focusing solely on complete indigenous production, India could also establish technology-sharing frameworks with like-minded Indo-Pacific nations.
• This approach would not only accelerate capability-building but also nurture trust-based partnerships in a region increasingly defined by strategic competition and polarisation.

Conclusion

• India’s ability to develop and export tailored UAVs could secure its strategic needs, counter China’s influence, and position it as a key Indo-Pacific defence partner.