In News:
- In its latest ‘Monthly Economic Review’, the Ministry of Finance has highlighted two key areas of concern for the Indian economy:
- the fiscal deficit and
- the current account deficit (or CAD).
What’s in Today’s Article
- Monthly Economic Review – About, Key highlights
Monthly Economic Review
- This report is released by the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance on monthly basis.
- It presents a picture about the status of Indian economy and its prospects.
- It analyses the factors affecting growth and recommends necessary actions.
Key Highlights of Monthly Economic Review
- Optimistic picture presented
- In its latest ‘Monthly Economic Review’, the Ministry of Finance has painted an overall optimistic picture of the state of the domestic economy.
- The World is looking at a distinct possibility of widespread stagflation.
- India, however, is at low risk of stagflation, owing to its prudent stabilization policies
- Several factors affecting the economic growth
- The economic growth outlook is likely to be affected by several factors owing to:
- trade disruptions, export bans and the resulting surge in global commodity prices —all of which will continue to stoke inflation.
- These challenges will stay as long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists and global supply chains remain unrepaired.
- Economic activities in India are gaining momentum
- The report stated that the momentum of economic activities sustained in the first two months of the current financial year augurs well for India.
- India continues to be the quickest growing economy among major countries in 2022-23.
- Two key areas of concern for the Indian economy
- The report highlighted two key areas of concern for the Indian economy. These are:
- the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit (or CAD).
- Observations regarding Fiscal deficit (FD)
- The report states that an upside risk to the budgeted level of gross fiscal deficit has emerged.
- The FD is essentially the amount of money that the government has to borrow in any year to fill the gap between its expenditures and revenues.
- This is due to the fact that government revenues took a hit following cuts in excise duties on diesel and petrol.
- Higher levels of fiscal deficit typically imply the government eats into the pool of investible funds in the market.
- This amount could have been used by the private sector for its own investment needs.
- The government is trying its best to kick-start and sustain a private sector investment cycle.
- Hence, borrowing more than what it budgeted will be counter-productive.
- Recommendation to contain Fiscal Deficit
- The report underscores the need to trim revenue expenditure (or the money government spends just to meet its daily needs).
- It urged government to rationalize non-capex expenditure so as to protect growth supportive capex and also for avoiding fiscal slippages.
- Capex or capital expenditure essentially refers to money spent towards creating productive assets such as roads, buildings, ports etc.
- Capex has a much bigger multiplier effect on the overall GDP growth than revenue expenditure.
- Observations regarding the Current account deficit
- The report highlighted the costlier imports such as crude oil and other commodities will widen the CAD.
- The current account essentially refers to two specific sub-parts:
- Import and Export of goods — this is the trade account.
- Import and export of services — this is called the invisibles account.
- If a country imports more goods (everything from cars to phones to machinery to food grains etc) than it exports, it is said to have a trade account deficit.
- A deficit implies that more money is going out of the country than coming in via the trade of physical goods.
- Similarly, the same country could be earning a surplus on the invisibles account — that is, it could be exporting more services than importing.
- If, however, the net effect of a trade account and the invisibles account is a deficit, then it is called a current account deficit or CAD.
- A widening CAD tends to weaken the domestic currency because a CAD implies more dollars (or foreign currencies) are being demanded than rupees.
- The increasing CAD will also put downward pressure on the rupee.
- A weaker rupee will, in turn, make future imports costlier.
- There is one more reason why the rupee may weaken.
- If, in response to higher interest rates in the western economies especially the US, foreign portfolio investors (FPI) continue to pull out money from the Indian markets.