Context

• India has historically been an influential global player, balancing economic growth with diplomatic relations.
• However, recent geopolitical shifts have raised concerns about India’s limited role in resolving international conflicts.
• While India has taken decisive action in regional crises, such as its interventions in Bangladesh (1971), the Maldives (1988), and Sri Lanka (2009), it has recently adopted a cautious stance.
• The question arises: should India be more proactive in global geopolitics? Experts argue that India must recalibrate its foreign policy, balancing economic ambitions with strategic engagement to secure its position as a major global power.

India’s Historical and Current Diplomatic Approach

• India’s leadership in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) reflected its early commitment to shaping global politics.
• In contrast, its current multi-alignment strategy prioritises bilateral ties over collective geopolitical influence.
• India has made significant contributions to global welfare through initiatives like ‘Vaccine Maitri,’ climate action, and humanitarian aid.
• However, its reluctance to actively engage in major conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Palestine crisis, raises questions about its long-term vision as a global power.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic outreach to Russia and Ukraine has been commendable, but India has largely remained a bystander in peace negotiations.
• Its abstention from UNSC votes on the Ukraine war influenced developing nations, yet India has not capitalised on its unique position to mediate effectively.
• Given its economic and diplomatic credibility, should India not aspire for a seat at the “high table” of global conflict resolution?

The Risks of Remaining Passive

• Ceding Influence to Emerging Middle Powers
  • In the absence of Indian leadership, other nations are stepping in to fill the diplomatic vacuum.
  • Countries like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have taken on active mediation roles in various conflicts, thereby expanding their geopolitical influence.
  • Türkiye’s Role in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
    • Türkiye hosted direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in 2022, demonstrating its ability to mediate in European conflicts.
    • This enhanced Türkiye’s credibility as a neutral broker and strengthened its diplomatic standing.
  • Saudi Arabia’s Multi-Alignment Strategy
    • Saudi Arabia recently hosted high-profile U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, positioning itself as a major diplomatic force.
    • It is leveraging its oil wealth and strategic location to assert itself as a key player in global geopolitics.
  • Qatar’s Mediation in Africa: Qatar successfully facilitated a ceasefire between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, proving that small but influential states can play a major role in global conflict resolution.
  • If India does not step up, it risks falling behind these emerging middle powers in diplomatic influence.
  • By playing an active role, India could shape discussions on global security rather than merely reacting to them.
• Diminishing Credibility as a Global Leader
  • India has often projected itself as the leader of the Global South, advocating for the interests of developing nations.
  • However, if it remains hesitant to engage in conflict resolution, it may lose credibility in the eyes of its allies.
  • Expectations from a Rising Power
    • India, as the world’s fifth-largest economy and an aspiring permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), is expected to contribute more than just statements.
    • If India seeks a leadership role in global governance, it cannot afford to be perceived as indifferent to global crises.
  • Implications for UNSC Aspirations
    • India argues that UNSC decisions lack legitimacy without the world’s largest democracy.
    • However, this argument weakens if India is unwilling to take decisive action in global affairs outside the UNSC framework.
  • The ‘Not an Era of War’ Doctrine
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement to Vladimir Putin that ‘this is not an era of war’ was widely appreciated.
    • However, beyond rhetoric, India has not taken concrete steps to push for peace.
    • If India remains passive, such statements may be seen as diplomatic posturing rather than genuine efforts at conflict resolution.
• Strategic Setbacks in a Shifting Global Order
• The global balance of power is shifting, with increasing geopolitical fragmentation.
• If India does not actively engage, it may find itself left out of crucial negotiations that could shape the future world order.
• U.S.-China ‘Deal’ and the Risk of Regional Marginalisation
  • As tensions between the U.S. and China evolve, there is a possibility of a new understanding between the two superpowers, dividing regions into spheres of influence.
    • If India does not assert itself, it could be excluded from key geopolitical arrangements in Asia.
• Threat to the Quad’s Relevance
  • The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), consisting of India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia, is meant to counterbalance China’s influence.
    • However, if India remains hesitant to engage more proactively, the Quad itself could lose its strategic significance, weakening India’s position in the Indo-Pacific.
• China’s Expanding Influence
  • China’s growing presence in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is reshaping global geopolitics.
    • While India has expressed concerns over China’s economic and strategic expansion, its passive approach limits its ability to counterbalance Chinese influence effectively.

The Way Ahead for India to Establish Itself as a Key Geopolitical Player

• Strengthening Regional Policies
  • India’s bilateral relations in West Asia, Central Asia, and East Asia must be supplemented with active participation in regional frameworks.
  • While India has maintained strong ties with Central Asian nations, its reduced engagement in the SCO limits its influence in the region.
  • Similarly, after opting out of RCEP, India must find alternative ways to strengthen economic ties with East Asian nations.
• Deepening Ties with Europe
  • With Europe facing internal and external pressures, India has a strategic opportunity to enhance its presence in the region.
  • A trade agreement with the U.S. could serve as a foundation for deeper economic and political collaboration with the European Union.
• Playing a More Proactive Role in Conflict Resolution
  • India does not need to position itself as a mediator but should be ready to facilitate dialogue and negotiations.
  • Its past role in the Korean War (1951-52) and its recent diplomatic efforts in the UNSC (2021-22) show that India can bridge divergent geopolitical interests.

Conclusion

• India’s ambition to be a global power must go beyond economic growth; it must also involve strategic geopolitical engagement.
• The world is undergoing a structural shift, with rising unilateralism and realignments in global politics.
• By proactively shaping global events rather than reacting to them, India can strengthen its influence and secure its place as a key pole in a multipolar world.
• As the international order evolves, India’s leadership will be judged not only by its economic prowess but also by its willingness to shape a stable and balanced global landscape.