Context

• India's neighbourhood has always been a region of strategic importance, but the dynamics within these countries often seem to be in disarray.
• India, at times, engages in self-criticism when regional events do not unfold as expected, partly due to an overestimation of its influence in shaping outcomes.
• Amid this development, it is important to explore the evolution of India's neighbourhood from 2008 to 2024, analysing India's role, its successes, and the challenges it faces today.

A Period of Promising Change (2008-2010) and India’s Role

• Bangladesh: The Return of Democracy
  • In Bangladesh, the end of military rule under General Moeen U. Ahmed in December 2008 was a pivotal moment.
  • The military had governed the country with an iron grip, but internal and external pressures, including those from India, led to a return to civilian rule.
  • Sheikh Hasina's election as Prime Minister in 2009, backed by a massive mandate from women and youth, symbolised the reawakening of democracy in Bangladesh.
  • India played a crucial catalytic role in this process, with then External Affairs Minister working behind the scenes to ensure that the elections were free from military interference.
• Sri Lanka: The Defeat of the LTTE
  • In Sri Lanka, the year 2009 saw the culmination of a prolonged and bloody conflict with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a militant organisation that had waged a separatist war for over three decades.
  • India's involvement in Sri Lanka's internal conflict was complex, shaped by both regional security concerns and domestic political pressures.
  • While the LTTE was finally defeated by Sri Lankan forces, India's sustained diplomatic and strategic engagement with Sri Lanka played an instrumental role in shaping the outcome.
  • The elimination of the LTTE not only brought an end to the civil war but also paved the way for the reintegration of the Tamil population into a unified Sri Lankan state.
• Maldives: The Dawn of Multi-Party Democracy
  • The Maldives, long under the autocratic rule of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, experienced its first multi-party democratic elections in October 2008.
  • This was a historic moment for the island nation, as it marked the end of 30 years of single-party rule and the beginning of a new era of political pluralism.
  • Mohamed Nasheed, a former political prisoner and pro-democracy activist, emerged victorious in these elections, symbolising hope for democratic governance in the Maldives.
  • India, recognising the significance of this transition, provided critical support to stabilise the nascent democracy.
• Myanmar: A Step Toward Civilian Rule
  • After two decades of military rule, the country held elections in 2010, albeit under the shadow of the military's dominance.
  • The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), backed by the military, won these elections, but the real turning point came with the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.
  • Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), would go on to win landslide victories in the 2015 and 2020 elections, signalling the gradual strengthening of democratic forces in Myanmar.
  • India's engagement with Myanmar during this period was delicate, balancing its strategic interests with support for democratic aspirations.
• Pakistan: A Civilian Government Takes Charge
  • Even in Pakistan, a country with a long history of military dominance, the election of a civilian government in 2008 marked a significant development.
  • The ousting of President Pervez Musharraf, a military ruler, and the subsequent installation of a civilian administration offered a glimmer of hope for democratic governance in Pakistan.
  • While the challenges of civil-military relations in Pakistan remained formidable, this transition was an important step toward strengthening democratic institutions in the country.
  • India's relations with Pakistan during this period were fraught with tension, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, but the presence of a civilian government in Islamabad offered a potential avenue for dialogue and engagement.

The Present Situation: A Stark Contrast (2024) and Challenges for India

• Recent Collapse of Government in Bangladesh
  • In Bangladesh, the government of Sheikh Hasina collapsed in August 2024, driven by a democracy deficit, an economic downturn, and violent student protests.
  • India's failure to anticipate and engage with the opposition in Bangladesh contributed to this setback.
  • The fall of Hasina's government raises questions about India's approach to balancing support for individual leaders and maintaining broader institutional relationships.
• Crisis in Sri Lanka
  • Sri Lanka experienced its own crisis in 2022 when President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled amidst mass anti-government protests, known as the "Aragalaya."
  • The country's democracy and economy suffered severely. While India could not have predicted this, its response was commendable, providing a timely bailout package of about $4 billion that helped stabilise Sri Lanka.
  • India's ability to maintain relationships across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka has put it in a better position, regardless of the outcome of future elections.
• Challenges for India in Maldives
  • In the Maldives, the 2024 elections caught India off guard as President Mohamed Muizzu won a landslide victory.
  • India had failed to engage with him earlier, a mistake similar to its misstep in Bangladesh.
  • However, India's past actions, such as counselling President Nasheed on coalition politics, show that it has not always turned a blind eye to the mistakes of its allies.
• Myanmar Crisis
  • Myanmar has seen a return to military rule after three consecutive elections.
  • The 2021 coup has left the country in turmoil, with the military unable to control growing opposition and ethnic conflicts.
  • The instability is spilling over into India's northeastern states, presenting a dilemma for India.
• Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Challenges
  • In Afghanistan, the Taliban's return to power in August 2021 marked a significant setback for India's interests.
  • Despite anticipating this outcome and cautioning the United States, India was excluded from U.S. engagements with the Taliban, largely due to concerns over Pakistan's reactions.
  • India now finds itself managing the fallout from this development on its own.
  • Pakistan, too, saw the fall of its civilian government in 2022, widely believed to be orchestrated by the military.
  • This underscores the persistent challenges India faces in dealing with its western neighbour.

India's Response and Strategic Imperatives

• India's response to these challenges has been a mix of successes and shortcomings.
• While it has managed to stabilise Sri Lanka and maintain relations with the new government in the Maldives, it has struggled in Bangladesh and Myanmar, where the stakes are particularly high.
• Bangladesh and Myanmar are central to India's strategic interests, and the challenges in these countries require a nuanced approach.
• In Myanmar, India must navigate a complex landscape where the military, opposition, and ethnic groups are all vying for power.
• In Bangladesh, India needs to establish new relationships with political forces that may not be as favourable to Indian interests, all while keeping external anti-India forces at bay.
• In the broader region, India's robust developmental support remains a critical tool for cleaner closer relations with its neighbours.
• This support has been instrumental in building goodwill, even in difficult situations, such as in Afghanistan, where the Taliban has refrained from attacking Indian projects due to the benefits they bring to the people.

Conclusion

• The events of the past 16 years highlight the volatility of India's neighbourhood and the challenges that come with it.
• While India has had its share of missteps, it has also shown resilience and adaptability in responding to crises.
• The key lesson is that sustained engagement, rather than episodic interventions, is essential for maintaining influence and fostering stability in the region.