Context

• India stands at a decisive crossroads in global geopolitics, where its aspiration to punch its weight faces tough constraints imposed by the evolving international order.
• As major powers re-configurate alliances and recalibrate policies, India encounters a series of diplomatic and strategic setbacks.
• These setbacks highlight the complexities of asserting influence while maintaining sovereignty and economic momentum.

Operation Sindoor: A Reality Check

• Operation Sindoor exemplified India’s challenge in mobilising international support against cross-border terrorism.
• Despite clear evidence implicating Pakistan-based groups, notably, three Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives eliminated after the Pahalgam attack of April 22, 2025, many strategic partners hesitated to openly call out Pakistan for harbouring United Nations-sanctioned terrorists.
• The United States, under President Donald Trump, complicated narratives by claiming credit for brokering a ceasefire with economic leverage, conflicting with the Indian government’s own account.
• In a perplexing diplomatic move, the U.S. even welcomed Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir after the operation.
• However, not all signals were negative: The U.S. designated The Resistance Front (TRF), responsible for the Pahalgam attack, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, and the UN Security Council Monitoring Team identified TRF’s role, marking a partial but insufficient international consensus on India’s security concerns.

U.S.-India Tensions: Trade, Security, and Trust

• Geopolitical friction with the U.S., long touted as India’s ‘natural ally,’ has grown on several fronts.
• For example, President Trump’s abrupt imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods on the day of the flagship NISAR satellite launch transformed a trade dispute into a tool of political pressure, especially linking tariffs to India’s continued imports of Russian oil.
• The U.S. strategy appeared opportunistic; while it criticized India’s Russian oil imports, it continued to seek U.S.-Russian rapprochement and permitted U.S. companies to engage in select trade with China.
• Trump’s calls to U.S. companies to halt investment in India, and instead hire only Americans, coincide with U.S. security and trade priorities that have increasingly excluded or sidelined Indian interests in broader Indo-Pacific and global contexts.

The European Union and Economic Pressure

• Even as India negotiates its trade pact with Europe, the EU has sanctioned a key refinery with Russian ownership, fully aware that stopping Russian oil flows through India inflates global prices.
• Paradoxically, several EU states (such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Belgium) continue their own Russian oil imports through exemptions.
• Meanwhile, the EU’s carbon taxes and digital trade barriers persist, measures India views as unfair, particularly when compared to more lenient treatment of European trade with Russia.

China’s Assertive Neighbourhood Diplomacy and India’ Balancing Act

• China’s Assertive Neighbourhood Diplomacy
  • China’s attempted trilateral grouping with Pakistan and Bangladesh aimed to marginalize India, though Bangladesh has so far resisted.
  • Military and strategic manoeuvres, like helping Bangladesh revive the Lalmonirhat airbase and supporting Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, augment the pressure along India’s vulnerable northeast.
  • China’s standardisation of place names in Arunachal Pradesh and plans for a vast hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) in Tibet underline Beijing’s assertive strategy to control resources and set terms in border regions.
  • Economically, China controls key supply chains affecting India’s rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, giving it leverage over Indian industries.
• India’s Balancing Act and the Pitfalls of Silence
  • It refrains from taking assertive positions in global hotspots such as Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, and the Ukraine conflict, largely abstaining at the UN.
  • While meant to preserve autonomy and avoid entanglement, this approach diminishes India’s geopolitical clout and leaves its interests sidelined in global negotiations.
  • The argument that India should merely focus on becoming the world’s third largest economy ignores the reality that in today’s world, economic progress is inseparable from strategic engagement.
  • Fragmenting norms, trade protectionism, and coercive geopolitics increasingly dictate economic and tech outcomes, not simply free trade or WTO agreements.

The Road Ahead: Towards Multi-Alignment

• Recognising the shrinking space for manoeuvre, India has started calling out Western double standards, especially the hypocrisy in the U.S. and EU’s own trade and energy dealings with Russia while criticising India for similar partnerships.
• India’s recent call for a ceasefire in Gaza signals a willingness to assert itself in global conflict resolution, seeking to safeguard its autonomy while pushing for more equitable engagement with allies.
• The need to finalise an India-U.S. trade pact, re-engage with multilateral groupings like BRICS (hosting the 2026 summit), expand ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and revisit strategic relationships with East Asian economies (after missing out on RCEP) are now urgent priorities.

Conclusion

• The shifting tectonics of global politics require India not just to adapt, but to assertively pursue national interests through diversified partnerships, robust diplomatic outreach, and an unapologetic defence of its economic and security imperatives.
• The era of quiet economic focus without proactive geopolitical engagement is over.
• India must now claim its role as a decisive actor in shaping the rules and outcomes of the new international order.