Context:

• Under the Paris Agreement, India must submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the period up to 2035.
• India is on track to meet its previous commitments and now needs a comprehensive, economy-wide energy transition plan aligned with the net-zero 2070 target.
• The article outlines a seven-point agenda that should guide India's new NDCs.

Seven Pillars of India’s Energy Transition Strategy:

• Higher emissions intensity reduction target:
  • India will meet its 2030 target of 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP (2005 baseline).
  • Proposed 2035 target - 65% reduction.
  • With GDP projected to grow at 7.6%, total emissions will still rise but peak around 2035.
  • Announcing a peaking year enhances credibility, counters criticism of India as the “third-largest emitter”.
• Expanding non-fossil-fuel power capacity:
  • India has already met the target of 50% non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.
  • New target - 80% non-fossil capacity by 2035.
  • Total power capacity to reach 1,600 GW by 2035. Of this, solar and wind, which are subject to intermittency, would be around 1,200 GW, raising their generation share from 13.5% currently to ~50% by 2035.
  • Energy storage capacity, which is less than 1 GW today, should reach approximately 170 GW by 2035.
  • The new solar and wind capacities would also require expansion of the grid infrastructure.
• Phasing down unabated coal:
  • No new unabated coal plants after 2030.
  • Coal generation capacity could rise from 255 GW at present, peak at 293 GW around 2030 and then decline gradually to 230 GW by 2040.
  • Some coal capacity can be retained by 2070, conditional on carbon capture and storage systems becoming cost-competitive.
  • Coal mining states (Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh) must prepare for transition via retraining, economic diversification, and social protection.
• Accelerating electrification of transport:
  • Railways: Achieved over 99% railway track electrification, but under 90% of the movement is currently electrically powered. Achieving near-100% electric traction by 2035, imply phasing out diesel locomotives.
  • Urban buses: 50% electric buses in city fleets by 2035.
  • Three-wheelers: Move from 50% to 100% electric within the next few years.
  • Set EV sales targets for all vehicle categories in consultation with manufacturers.
• Operationalising and strengthening the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS):
  • CCTS, which becomes operational in (April) 2026, can be part of new NDCs. The scheme will be reviewed at the end of two years based on experience.
  • It could be expanded over time to cover sectors currently excluded, e.g. power.
  • Start with lenient emission intensity targets, gradually tighten them to meet net-zero 2070 trajectory.
• Managing variability through electricity market reforms:
  • The higher share of renewables will imply much greater intraday and seasonal variability in electricity generation. This poses problems for grid management.
  • It will necessitate:
    • Battery and pumped storage,
    • Reforms in electricity pricing,
    • Shift from long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to exchange-based dynamic pricing,
    • Time-of-day tariffs for consumers.
  • A major effort will be needed to create acceptance by the public.
• Financing the transition:
  • Required investment: Approximately $62 billion annually during 2026–2035 (or about 0.84% of GDP per annum).
  • Sources: About 80% of this amount will come from domestic sources (savings, private investment). 20% (~$12.5 bn annually) from international finance, including MDBs for risk mitigation.
  • Need: A stable reform-oriented growth trajectory (Viksit Bharat vision) can attract foreign capital.

Institutional Strengthening:

• Strengthen inter-governmental and Centre–state coordination. Need an economy-wide transition plan, jointly executed by Centre, states, and private sector.
• Strong case for reviving the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change (PMCCC) to -
  • Coordinate national action plan,
  • Ensure stakeholder alignment,
  • Review progress,
  • Adapt to technological changes.

Way Forward:

• Securing adequate financing, especially concessional funds.
• Submit NDCs reflecting the seven-pillared strategy, with conditionality linked to international finance.
• Managing employment and socio-economic impacts in coal regions.
• Adopt a phased, predictable approach to coal phase-down and renewable scale-up.
• Ensuring grid stability amidst high renewable penetration.
• Raising domestic manufacturing capacity for EVs, batteries, and solar components.
• Public acceptance of time-of-day tariffs and cost-reflective pricing.
• Deepen carbon markets, electricity market reform, and storage capacity expansion.
• Build resilience through skilling, diversification, and just transition measures.

Conclusion:

• India stands at a critical inflection point as it prepares its NDCs for 2035. The proposed seven-point agenda aligns India’s rapid economic growth with its long-term net-zero 2070 commitment.
• With coherent planning, adequate financing, and effective institutional mechanisms, India can pursue a just, credible, and ambitious energy transition while maintaining developmental priorities and global climate leadership.