Context

• The Pahalgam terror strike on April 22, 2025, and India's subsequent military retaliation through Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, mark a critical juncture in the security narrative of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
• While these events have shaped national discourse and reflected India’s growing military prowess, the focus remains disproportionately tilted towards external military responses.
• What has been largely overlooked is the internal dimension of terrorism in J&K, a failure that risks undermining long-term peace and stability in the region.

The Complex Reality of Terrorism in J&K

• Terrorism in J&K is the product of a long-standing and layered conflict.
• While Pakistan’s role as a state sponsor of terrorism is undeniable, a reality that has persisted since India’s Independence, the conflict cannot be understood in exclusively external terms.
• The insurgency that erupted in 1989 began as a locally-driven movement but was gradually hijacked by foreign terrorist elements in the mid-1990s.
• Despite this shift, the core grievances fuelling the unrest, identity issues, political marginalisation, repression, and lack of economic opportunities, have remained deeply rooted within the region.
• Data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) indicates that fatalities in J&K have significantly declined from over 4,000 in 2001 to just 127 in 2024.
• This reduction is largely attributed to improvements in the security infrastructure, community outreach programs, and Pakistan’s waning capacity to sustain a high-intensity proxy war.
• However, these gains must not develop complacency, as the ecosystem of terrorism remains active and adaptive, exploiting both local discontent and external patronage.

Evaluating Deterrence After Operation Sindoor: Tactical Success, Strategic Uncertainty

• Operation Sindoor showcased India’s advanced capabilities in kinetic, non-contact warfare and was widely seen as a tactical success.
• Yet, whether it constitutes a strategic victory remains debatable.
• Historical patterns suggest that India’s past military operations, including the surgical strikes of 2016 and the Balakot airstrike in 2019, have failed to deter Pakistan from continuing its proxy war.
• In fact, data indicates an increase in terror-related fatalities post these operations.
• The Pakistani state and its military apparatus have interpreted the aftermath of Operation Sindoor as a form of victory.
• The elevation of General Asim Munir to Field Marshal and the resurgence of military nationalism within Pakistan, as observed by political analyst Ayesha Siddiqa, reveal that far from being deterred, Pakistan has doubled down on its narrative of resistance.
• This indicates the limited impact of military operations in altering the strategic calculus of Pakistan's deep state.

Internal Vulnerabilities and the Rise of New Threats

• The resurgence of terrorist activity in the Jammu region, particularly after troop deployments to Galwan, underscores the persistent vulnerabilities within India’s security grid.
• New terrorist outfits like The Resistance Front, People’s Anti-Fascist Front, and Kashmir Tigers have exploited these gaps, with local support playing a critical enabling role.
• Intelligence lapses, especially in the domain of Human Intelligence (HUMINT), have allowed terrorist networks to operate with impunity, a reality underscored by the fact that the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack remain at large.
• Although local participation in terrorism has declined compared to the Burhan Wani era, its strategic importance cannot be dismissed.
• Local terrorists continue to serve as vital connectors, facilitators, and sources of legitimacy for foreign operatives.
• The absence of effective local intelligence and ongoing community support for militancy present serious obstacles to counterterrorism efforts.

The Way Forward

• Beyond Kinetics
  • In the wake of the Pahalgam massacre, the spontaneous and bipartisan outcry from the local population against terrorism was both unprecedented and instructive.
  • This public sentiment offers a crucial strategic opportunity.
  • Instead of leveraging such moments for inclusive state-building and reconciliation, measures like mass arrests and home demolitions risk alienating the very communities whose support is essential to long-term peace.
  • While external responses, such as cross-border strikes and kinetic operations, serve immediate tactical purposes, they often deflect attention from the foundational causes of conflict.
  • Experts have noted a troubling trend among policymakers to treat terrorism in J&K as a unidimensional challenge, focusing narrowly on military solutions while ignoring socio-political dynamics.
• Comprehensive Counterterrorism Doctrine: A People Centric Strategy
  • To build a resilient peace, India must adopt a comprehensive counterterrorism doctrine that integrates kinetic and non-kinetic measures.
  • Central to this approach must be the recognition of people as the centre of gravity, a principle that prioritises political dialogue, economic development, education, and social inclusion alongside robust security measures.

Conclusion

• Operation Sindoor may have reinforced India’s military credentials, but it also exposes the limitations of kinetic strategies in delivering sustainable peace in Jammu and Kashmir.
• The enduring challenge lies not in defeating Pakistan militarily, but in winning over Kashmir through empathy, inclusion, and statecraft.
• To that end, a recalibration of national strategy is imperative, one that harmonizes tactical brilliance with strategic depth, and external deterrence with internal cohesion.
• Only through such a multidimensional approach can India hope to secure enduring peace in one of its most sensitive and complex regions.