Why in news?

At least 65 people died and over 50 remain missing after a flash flood triggered by torrential rain hit Chasoti village in Kishtwar, Jammu & Kashmir. The disaster struck near the route to the Machail Mata temple.

While scientists caution against linking any single extreme event directly to climate change, they note that rising global temperatures and shifting weather patterns have made such incidents — including flash floods and wildfires — more frequent and severe.

In Jammu & Kashmir, as elsewhere in India, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events driven by climate change has already caused the deaths of thousands in recent years.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Extreme Weather Events in Jammu & Kashmir (2010–2022)
• Key Drivers of Extreme Weather Events in J&K

Extreme Weather Events in Jammu & Kashmir (2010–2022)

• Between 2010 and 2022, Jammu & Kashmir experienced 2,863 extreme weather events that claimed 552 lives, according to a 2024 study published in Mausam by IMD scientists.
• The most frequent occurrences were thunderstorms (1,942 incidents) and heavy rain (409 incidents), while flash floods (168 incidents) and landslides (186 incidents) also posed significant threats.
• Although heavy snow was less frequent (42 incidents), it caused the highest fatalities — 182 deaths — making it the deadliest weather phenomenon during this period.
• The study also highlighted that Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal, and Doda districts recorded the highest number of deaths from flash floods.
• Overall, the research concluded that while heavy rain and heavy snow remain the primary weather-related killers, other hazards such as flash floods, thunderstorms, and windstorms are increasingly emerging as major threats in Jammu & Kashmir.

Key Drivers of Extreme Weather Events in J&K

• Although several factors contribute to the occurrence of extreme weather events in J&K, the three significant drivers behind these events are rising temperatures, the changing pattern of Western Disturbances, and the region’s topography.
• Rising Temperatures and Their Impact on J&K
  • The western Himalayas, where Jammu & Kashmir lies, have warmed at twice the rate of the Indian subcontinent since 2000.
  • This sharp rise in temperature has intensified both mean and extreme precipitation.
  • A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture — about 7% extra water vapour for every 1°C rise — resulting in heavier and more frequent rainfall events that often trigger severe flooding.
  • Higher temperatures have also accelerated glacial shrinkage, increasing the number of unstable glacial lakes.
    • These lakes, being relatively young, have fragile edges prone to erosion, melting, and sudden breaches.
    • When heavy rainfall occurs, they overflow, releasing slush and sediment that cause catastrophic downstream floods.
  • As per climate experts, these unstable lakes make the region particularly vulnerable.
  • Intense rain not only swells rivers but also destabilises glacial lakes, compounding the risk of flash floods and large-scale destruction.
• Changing Nature of Western Disturbances
  • Western Disturbances (WDs) are east-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Afghanistan and Iran, gathering moisture from the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Arabian Seas.
  • Traditionally active in winter months (December–March), they are now increasingly affecting weather outside the winter season.
  • This increases the risk of floods and heavy rainfall in India’s Himalayan states, including Jammu & Kashmir.
  • Climate change has altered their behaviour. The rapid warming of the Arabian Sea releases more moisture into these systems.
  • When WDs extend into the North Arabian Sea, they absorb this excess moisture, intensifying rainfall over the hills.
  • This shift means that global warming is strengthening and prolonging the influence of WDs, making extreme rainfall and flash floods more frequent in the region.
• Topography and Vulnerability of J&K
  • Jammu & Kashmir’s hilly and mountainous terrain amplifies its exposure to extreme weather events.
  • The Himalayas consist of diverse ranges that significantly influence local weather systems.
  • One of the key processes is orographic rainfall.
    • As moist air is forced to ascend over the mountains, it cools and condenses, resulting in heavy precipitation.
    • This process makes the region more prone to sudden and intense rain, often triggering flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts.
  • The unique Himalayan topography acts as a natural trigger for extreme events, meaning that climate change impacts — like warming temperatures and shifting Western Disturbances — are magnified by the terrain.