Modal Shift in Transport - Changing Dynamics of Transportation in India and the World
May 21, 2025

Context:

  • Traditional transport choices are driven by convenience, comfort, and cost.
  • But, there is a push for a “modal shift” globally - shifting from road and air transport to railways due to environmental and economic concerns.

Environmental Impact of Different Modes of Transport:

  • Key emission statistics:
    • Transport sector contributes ~25% of global energy-related carbon emissions.
    • Road transport is the largest emitter because cars, buses, and trucks are significant sources of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that cause global warming.
  • Emissions per passenger-kilometre:
    • Cars: 148g CO₂
    • Airplanes: 123g CO₂
    • Buses: 63g CO₂
    • Trains: Only 19g CO₂
  • Freight transport efficiency: Railways are significantly more efficient and less polluting than trucks for freight movement.

Global Trends and Policy Measures:

  • Declining rail use (2007–2021):
    • Freight share by rail reduced from 51% to 40% globally.
    • Passenger share reduced from 12% to 8%.
    • Main reason: Growth of road transport, especially in India and China.
  • Potential environmental impact:
    • If current trends continue, there will be a 16% rise in GHG emissions in lower-income countries.
    • Switching to rail could prevent 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2050.
  • International best practices:
    • European Union: Goal - Shift 30% of road freight to rail/ships by 2030, and over 50% by 2050.
    • China: Implementing freight shift policies, resulting in reduced road traffic and cleaner environment.

India’s Transport Challenge and Opportunities:

  • Current scenario:
    • India has one of the world’s largest railway networks.
    • Yet, road preference is increasing due to better infrastructure and convenience.
  • Government initiatives:
    • National Rail Plan (NRP): Target is to increase freight modal share to 45% by 2030.
    • Investment in Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs).
    • Need for a similar passenger rail strategy.
  • Urban transport models:
    • Delhi Metro (2021): It removed 5 lakh vehicles from roads daily, reducing emissions by 23.82g CO₂/km.
    • Mumbai: Metro and monorail share is projected to rise from 2% to 36%, reducing motor vehicle share from 35% to 24%.

Climate Goals and Carbon Credit Opportunities:

  • India's climate commitments:
    • A modal shift from road to rail is crucial for India, which is one of the world’s largest GHG emitters, with 14% coming from the transport sector alone.
    • India plans to attain net zero status by 2070, which will require drastic cuts in GHG emissions from all sectors, including transport.
  • Carbon credit mechanism:
    • Modal shift can yield carbon credits to fund green infrastructure.
    • Conditions include:
      • Proving additionality (emissions saved would not occur without intervention).
      • No double-counting of emission savings.
    • Delhi Metro example: Sold credits but couldn’t include them in India’s national targets.
  • Energy source consideration: Electrified trains must run on clean energy (solar/wind), not coal-powered electricity.

Conclusion:

  • Modal shift to rail is vital for sustainable development India has the potential to lead globally by investing in eco-friendly transport.
  • With the right planning, India can balance development with climate responsibility, setting a precedent for the world.

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