Why in the News?

A new mission to improve weather forecasting, with a budget of at least Rs 10,000 crore is expected to be launched soon. It is likely to be several times bigger than the existing National Monsoon Mission.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• About National Monsoon Mission (Objectives, Key Targets, Challenges, etc.)
• News Summary

National Monsoon Mission:

• The National Monsoon Mission (NMM) has made significant advancements in weather and climate prediction by developing state-of-the-art models that are now fully operational. These models cover a wide range of forecasting periods, including:
  • Short-range (1-10 days)
  • Medium-range (10-30 days)
  • Seasonal (up to one season)
• Over the past three years, the models created under the NMM have consistently demonstrated high accuracy in predicting key weather events across different time scales.

Objectives of NMM:

• The primary objective of the National Monsoon Mission is to enhance monsoon prediction capabilities across India for all time scales.
• To achieve this, the mission is implemented nationwide, encompassing all States and Union Territories (UTs).
• Key Targets of the Monsoon Mission:
  • Development of a Seamless Prediction System: Establish a continuous prediction system using the Monsoon Mission models across various time scales:
    • Seasonal Predictions: Covering the entire monsoon season.
    • Extended Range Predictions: Up to four weeks.
    • Short-range Predictions: Up to five days.
  • International Collaboration
    • Initiate and coordinate partnerships between Indian and international institutes to develop systems for predicting extreme weather events and climate applications.
  • Implementation of Climate Application Systems
    • Develop and implement systems for climate applications with significant social impacts, including:
      • Agriculture: Enhancing crop planning and yield predictions.
      • Flood Forecasting: Improving preparedness and response.
      • Extreme Events Forecasting: Mitigating the effects of severe weather conditions.
      • Wind Energy: Optimizing energy production based on weather forecasts.
  • Advanced Data Assimilation
    • Develop an advanced data assimilation system to ensure the preparation of high-quality data for accurate model predictions.

Achievements and Impact of NMM:

• The NMM has successfully integrated these models into operational use, providing reliable forecasts that aid in disaster management, agricultural planning, and energy production.
• By improving the accuracy and timeliness of monsoon predictions, the mission plays a crucial role in mitigating the adverse effects of weather variability and supporting the socio-economic development of the country.

Challenges of National Monsoon Mission:

• Complexity of Monsoon Dynamics:
  • The Indian monsoon is influenced by a multitude of factors, including oceanic conditions, land surface processes, and atmospheric circulations.
  • The inherent complexity of these interactions makes accurate prediction challenging.
• Data Limitations:
  • High-quality data is crucial for accurate weather prediction models.
  • However, the availability and quality of observational data, particularly in remote and rural areas, can be inconsistent, leading to potential inaccuracies in predictions.
• International Collaboration:
  • While collaboration with foreign institutes is a goal of the NMM, aligning different methodologies, standards, and data-sharing protocols across countries can be complex and requires sustained diplomatic and technical efforts.
• Adaptation to Climate Change:
  • Climate change introduces new variables and uncertainties into weather patterns, complicating the prediction models.
  • Adapting the NMM to account for these changes and improving resilience to climate variability is a critical challenge.
• Regional Disparities:
  • There are disparities in how different regions of India benefit from the predictions made under the NMM.
  • Ensuring that all regions, particularly the most vulnerable, receive timely and accurate forecasts is a challenge that needs continuous attention.

IMD to improve its weather forecasting capabilities:

• The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is set to receive a significant upgrade to improve its weather forecasting capabilities, especially for localised and extreme weather events.
• This new mission, with a budget of at least Rs 10,000 crore, aims to enhance IMD's accuracy in predicting weather at the local level, addressing the challenges exposed by recent extreme events like heavy rainfall, landslides, and floods.
  • The new mission is likely to be several times bigger than the existing National Monsoon Mission.
• Despite improvements over the last decade, the IMD has struggled with accurate local predictions, particularly for extreme weather, which has become more frequent due to climate change.
• The mission will focus on developing advanced computer simulation models tailored to India's unique climate scenarios and further strengthening the country's weather monitoring infrastructure.
  • It will include the deployment of more sophisticated instruments like Doppler radars and new weather satellites.
• Additionally, the mission plans to integrate artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to improve hyperlocal forecasting, with successful experimental models already showing promise in cities like Mumbai.