Why in news?

India is preparing to host President Vladimir Putin for a two-day visit, even as it faces punitive U.S. tariffs over its imports of Russian oil. President Putin is visiting India to attend 23rd India–Russia annual summit.

The visit underscores New Delhi’s intent to deepen ties with Moscow. Analysts say India views Russia as a crucial partner at a time when the U.S. appears unreliable and China increasingly hostile.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Putin’s India Visits: Then and Now
• India’s Defence Dependence on Russia: Shrinking but Still Significant
• India–Russia Oil Trade: From Discount Bonanza to Sanctions Pressure
• What to Expect from Putin’s India Visit
• India’s Strategic Balancing Between the West and Russia

Putin’s India Visits: Then and Now

• When Putin first visited India in October 2000, both countries were navigating turbulent times:
  • Putin was newly elected President.
  • India was under Western sanctions for Pokhran-II.
  • Russia was weakened after the Soviet collapse.
  • The U.S. dominated a unipolar world.
  • India–Pakistan tensions were high after Kargil and IC-814 hijack.
  • The visit came just months before the Red Fort attack (Dec 2000).
  • India and Russia were both struggling, albeit for different reasons.
• Putin’s 2025 Visit: Striking Parallels, Changed Realities
  • Putin’s upcoming visit (on December 4–5, 2025) — the 23rd annual summit — is his first since the Ukraine invasion (2022).
  • Today:
    • Russia faces sweeping Western sanctions.
    • India faces secondary U.S. sanctions and steep tariffs on Russian oil purchases.
    • India–Pakistan tensions have resurfaced after May 2025 clashes.
    • Delhi again saw a blast near the Red Fort.
  • Despite the parallels, both nations hold stronger positions than 25 years ago.
• India’s Evolving Global Alignments
  • In the past two decades, India has significantly expanded ties with the West:
    • Deep security and defence cooperation
    • Strong economic partnerships
    • Growing people-to-people engagement
    • Strategic alignment with the U.S. on the Indo-Pacific
  • At the same time, India has retained its defence partnership with Russia, a Soviet-era legacy, while gradually diversifying to other technology providers.
• Russia’s Changing Global Role
  • Russia is now more isolated due to the Ukraine war but remains strategically important for India:
    • Defence cooperation
    • Energy supplies
    • Diplomatic alignment on some geopolitical issues
  • Both countries, though facing external pressure, continue to pursue a relationship shaped by mutual strategic interests.

India’s Defence Dependence on Russia: Shrinking but Still Significant

• India has diversified its defence imports, but around 60% of its military equipment remains of Russian origin, requiring ongoing spares and maintenance.
• Key systems like the S-400 air defence system illustrate this reliance: Russia has delivered 3 of 5 batteries, and India now wants five more.
• However, the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have slowed Russia’s ability to supply equipment on time.
• While European analysts say sanctions have weakened Russia’s capacity to produce advanced systems, Moscow disputes this claim.

India–Russia Oil Trade: From Discount Bonanza to Sanctions Pressure

• After the Ukraine war began, India bought discounted Russian oil, helping keep domestic fuel prices stable.
• This pushed bilateral trade to a record $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25, but the balance is heavily one-sided — India exported just $4.9 billion, while imports, mostly oil, were $63.8 billion.
• Both countries had set a $100-billion trade target by 2030, but that goal is now uncertain.
• With U.S. tariffs, secondary sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, and shrinking cost advantages, Indian refiners are expected to cut Russian oil purchases.
• This shift jeopardizes the trade target and places India in a strategic bind between energy security and geopolitical pressures.

What to Expect from Putin’s India Visit?

• Putin’s visit to Delhi will be closely watched as India faces growing U.S. and European pressure over its ties with Russia.
• The trip will feature high optics — a private dinner, state banquet, bilateral talks, and a CEOs’ address — echoing the warm public gestures seen earlier between Modi and Putin.
• Substantive outcomes are expected, including:
  • Progress on a labour mobility pact
  • Movement on a trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union
  • Potential new defence purchases, including additional S-400 systems and the latest Sukhoi aircraft
  • Expanded market access for Indian goods, from perishables to pharmaceuticals
• Overall, the visit is expected to reinforce strategic cooperation even as geopolitical pressures intensify.

India’s Strategic Balancing Between the West and Russia

• India seeks deeper ties with the US and Europe for technology, investment, and ambitious trade agreements.
• Yet Russia remains indispensable for long-term defence needs.
• Delhi is also wary of Russia’s “no-limits” partnership with China, especially with 50,000 Indian troops deployed along the tense India–China border.
• Maintaining a careful equilibrium between these major powers remains India’s core strategic challenge.