Context:

• The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in its State of the World Population Report 2025, challenges alarmist narratives surrounding declining fertility and demographic transitions.
• The report emphasizes reproductive agency - the ability of individuals and couples to realize their fertility aspirations - as the real issue, rather than mere population numbers.
• It holds vital significance for policymakers, especially in a country like India, where socio-economic and cultural factors shape fertility behavior and population policy.
• In this context, we will try to analyse the key highlights/findings of the report.

The Changing Global Demographic Landscape:

• Declining fertility rates worldwide:
  • Global fertility rate has declined from 5 (1960) to 2.2 (2024).
  • More than 50% of countries now have fertility rates below 2.1, the replacement level.
  • By 2054, all countries are projected to have fertility rates below 4.
  • Demographic anxiety is rising due to ageing populations and shrinking workforce.
• India's demographic shift:
  • India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell from 2.9 (2005) to 2.0 (2020) (SRS 2020).
  • Large inter-state variations persist.
  • Population under age 5 peaked in 2004; under 15 peaked in 2009.
  • India’s population is projected to peak mid-century, driven by young cohorts and increased life expectancy.
    • "Peak population" refers to the point in time when a population reaches its maximum size, after which it is expected to decline. 

Reproductive Aspirations and Realities:

• Unmet fertility desires - A dual challenge: UNFPA–YouGov survey of 14 countries, including India -
  • 36% of Indian respondents had unintended pregnancies.
  • 30% couldn't conceive when they wanted.
  • Indicates both overachieved fertility (more children than desired) and underachieved fertility (fewer children than desired).
• Economic and social constraints:
  • Major barriers: Financial insecurity, unemployment, housing, lack of childcare.
  • Marriage and domestic burden on Indian women restrict reproductive choices.
  • Lack of supportive workplace policies like paid parental leave and flexible hours.
  • Discrimination and career disruption due to pregnancy, especially in the informal sector.

Barriers to Reproductive Health and Autonomy:

• Stigma and structural gaps in infertility care:
  • Infertility remains stigmatized, especially where marriage equals childbearing.
  • Treatments are expensive, unregulated, and dominated by the private sector.
  • High costs and lack of insurance deter access.
• Over-reliance on sterilisation:
  • Widespread reliance on female sterilisation in India.
  • The need to promote reversible, modern contraception methods, not just for birth control but also to preserve choice, is essential to ensure people can plan families on their own terms.
• Delayed and spaced childbearing:
  • Educated, urban couples are delaying childbirth, but spacing for second child is often neglected.
  • NFHS-5: 4% of married women aged 15 to 49 who are currently married report that their needs for spacing are not being satisfied.
  • Son preference and norms against contraceptive use inhibit planning.

 Toward Reproductive Justice and Demographic Resilience:

• Countering demographic anxiety:
  • Public discourse focused on ageing, overpopulation, and low fertility often blames women.
  • The real issue is policy failure, not demographic change itself.
• Reproductive agency as central to policy:
  • Shift from population control to reproductive empowerment.
  • Policies must be people-centric, enabling choices, not imposing targets.

Conclusion - A Rights-Based Demographic Vision:

• To secure a demographically resilient future, nations must prioritize reproductive autonomy, dismantle socio-cultural barriers, and design inclusive policies that reflect the real fertility aspirations of individuals.
• India, standing at the crossroads of a demographic transition, has the opportunity to reshape its population policy through a framework of dignity, equity, and choice.