Context

• In recent years, the India-U.S. relationship has been hailed as one of the most consequential global partnerships of the 21st century.
• Rooted in shared democratic values and strengthened by converging geopolitical interests, the ties between the two nations have steadily deepened over the past two decades.
• However, the current phase in bilateral relations reflects a perceptible, though not irreversible, drift.
• Therefore, it is crucial to critically examine the causes of this drift, its manifestations, and the path forward to restore strategic trust and purpose in the relationship.

The Trajectory of India-US Ties

• From Optimism to Unease
  • Not long ago, the trajectory of India-U.S. ties appeared to be on an upward curve.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s early engagement with President Donald Trump signalled mutual enthusiasm.
  • Bipartisan goodwill in Washington and a sense of strategic convergence in New Delhi suggested a relationship based not merely on transactional convenience but on a broader alignment of vision.
  • Both nations envisioned a future in which they could co-shape a democratic, rules-based global order.
  • Yet today, this optimism has given way to unease. While not a rupture, there is a subtle erosion of trust, marked by policy inconsistency, symbolic missteps, and a troubling return to outdated diplomatic frames.
  • The Trump administration’s decision to host Pakistan’s military chief for a state lunch, as well as the President’s hyphenated rhetoric that lumped India and Pakistan together post-Operation Sindoor, have disturbed New Delhi.
  • These signals blur the hard-earned distinction between India’s global ambitions and the India-Pakistan binary, thereby undercutting India’s strategic narrative.
• Points of Friction
  • Several issues have emerged as irritants in the relationship.
  • On the economic front, despite celebrating the conclusion of a deal with China, President Trump reportedly discouraged Apple’s investment in India, warning of trade repercussions.
  • This undercuts India’s efforts to position itself as a manufacturing alternative in a China-plus-one strategy.
  • Immigration policy has also become contentious. The H-1B visa regime, long a linchpin of India-U.S. tech collaboration, now appears vulnerable to protectionist impulses.
  • The program’s erosion risks weakening the vibrant linkages between Silicon Valley and Indian innovation networks.
  • The most significant concern, however, lies in the U.S.'s renewed engagement with Pakistan.
  • The Pentagon’s characterisation of Pakistan as a phenomenal partner in counterterrorism, despite Pakistan’s known role in cross-border militancy, is deeply unsettling to Indian strategic thinkers.
  • It represents a relapse into Cold War-era thinking and nostalgia for a flawed yet familiar partner.

Possible Causes Behind the Strategic Drift

• Trump’s Transactional Approach
  • The Trump administration’s deeply transactional approach prioritises short-term gains over long-term alignment.
  • India, with its civilisational strategic culture and emphasis on gradual, layered diplomacy, finds this disorienting.
  • Trump's diplomatic style, charismatic yet unpredictable, adds further complexity to bilateral dealings.
• Overestimation of Pakistan’s Strategic Importance
  • Segments of the U.S. national security establishment continue to overestimate Pakistan’s strategic utility, especially in the Afghan context.
  • Despite evidence of duplicity, institutional inertia sustains this outdated paradigm.
• India’s Assertion of Strategic Autonomy
  • India’s rise on the global stage has not been matched by an equivalent presence within U.S. policymaking institutions.
  • This communication gap leads to misinterpretations of India’s principled assertion of strategic autonomy as indecisiveness or fence-sitting.
  • Critics like Ashley Tellis argue that India suffers from great-power delusions, but this view underestimates the calculated patience that defines India's foreign policy and its refusal to mimic American methods.

Steps Toward Renewal of India-US Ties

• Need for India to Avoid Reactive Diplomacy
  • To prevent the drift from becoming a deeper chasm, both nations must recalibrate. India must remain steady and avoid reactive diplomacy.
  • Despite recent irritants, the fundamentals of the relationship remain strong: defence collaboration, the Quad framework, intelligence sharing, and shared Indo-Pacific interests.
  • India should intensify behind-the-scenes engagement in Washington, using Congress, policy think tanks, and the Indian diaspora to build strategic advocacy.
• India’s Continued Economic and Regulatory Reforms
  • Domestically, India must accelerate economic reforms, not to appease external actors but to strengthen investor confidence and manufacturing competitiveness.
  • Regulatory clarity and infrastructure modernisation are essential to attracting high-value industries.
  • On trade, modest bilateral arrangements are being explored, and must be pursued with pragmatic optimism.
  • Immigration, particularly the H-1B issue, should be reframed not as a concession to India, but as a mutual driver of innovation and technological growth.
• US Investment in India’s Capacity Building
  • For the U.S., abandoning outdated Cold War frameworks is imperative.
  • Treating Indian manufacturing capacity or skilled labour as threats is self-defeating in a world that increasingly depends on democratic supply chains and technological partnerships.
  • If the U.S. wishes to counterbalance China effectively in the Indo-Pacific, it must invest more substantively in India’s regional capacity-building.

The Way Forward: Rediscovering Strategic Purpose

• Above all, the India-U.S. relationship must rediscover its moral and strategic purpose.
• This is not merely a tactical alliance against a rising China, nor simply a matter of market access. It is about co-creating a pluralistic, democratic, and rules-based global order.
• History has shown what is possible when the two democracies act boldly. The 2005 civil nuclear deal was not just a diplomatic success; it was a profound gesture of strategic trust that defied conventional wisdom.
• The current turbulence should not be seen as a failure, but as a necessary moment of reflection. It is an opportunity to reaffirm foundational commitments, adjust strategic postures, and renew mutual respect.
• As noted in the introduction to Engaged Democracies, ‘The real test of the partnership is not how it behaves in moments of celebration, but how it endures in times of stress.’

Conclusion

• The India-U.S. relationship stands at an inflection point but it has weathered past storms, post-Pokhran sanctions, disagreements over climate change, and differing visions of regional security.
• Yet each time, it has rebounded with greater maturity and trust. The question today is not whether Trump will lose India, but whether both nations will lose sight of a generational opportunity to craft a democratic concert in Asia.
• The answer must be a resolute no. If clarity, candour, and commitment are restored, the India-U.S. partnership can not only survive the present turbulence but emerge stronger, more purposeful, and once again, capable of making history.