Storms brewing in East, South China seas
Sept. 27, 2024

Why in news?

In recent years, maritime East Asia has become a hotspot for power politics, particularly in the East and South China Seas.

The East China Sea, bordered by China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, has seen repeated tensions over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are under Japanese control but claimed by China.

Meanwhile, the South China Sea, located between China, Taiwan, and five Southeast Asian nations—Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Indonesia—has emerged as a critical flashpoint.

China has aggressively asserted its territorial claims in this region, escalating disputes and heightening geopolitical tensions across the Indo-Pacific.

What’s in today’s article?

  • Significance of these seas
  • Posture taken by China in this region
  • Response from regional countries

Significance of East China Sea (ECS) and South China sea (SCS)

  • Significance for China
    • Geopolitical Control
      • Both seas are crucial for China’s defense and military positioning. Control over these waters allows China to project power in the region and safeguard its national security interests.
      • The SCS is part of China's "first island chain" defense strategy, forming a buffer against external threats.
    • Territorial Claims
      • China views the ECS and SCS as integral parts of its territorial sovereignty, with ongoing disputes over islands like the Diaoyu/Senkaku in the ECS and several islets and reefs in the SCS.
      • In its 2019 Defence White Paper, China declares that the South China Sea islands and Diaoyu Islands are integral parts of its territory.
    • Trade Routes
      • South China Sea is one of the world's busiest maritime trade corridors, with an estimated $3.4 trillion in annual trade passing through it.
      • Control over this region gives China potential leverage over international shipping routes.
    • Fisheries and Resources
      • Both the ECS and SCS are rich in fish stocks, a critical resource for China’s food security and economy.
      • The seas also provide livelihoods for millions in neighboring countries.
    • Energy Resources
      • The South China Sea is believed to hold significant reserves of oil and natural gas.
      • Securing these resources is vital for China's growing energy demands and for other nations relying on the region's resources.
  • Significance for other countries
    • Key maritime route
      • The key maritime trade routes in East Asia pass through these two seas. Taiwan Strait is a critical maritime choke point.
    • Vital for digital economy
      • The region is home to undersea cables that are important for the global digital economy.
    • Vital for energy security
      • As per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2023, 10 billion barrels of petroleum and petroleum products and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas passed through the South China Sea.
      • It is also home to vast reserves of untapped oil and natural gas.
    • Global Security
      • The East and South China Seas are flashpoints for potential conflict.
      • It is drawing global attention from powers like the U.S., which conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s maritime claims.
      • These tensions affect global trade, security alliances, and regional stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Posture taken by China in this region

  • China aggressively pushing its territorial claims in both seas in two ways:
    • by building defence-related infrastructure such as ports, military installations, airstrips, and artificial islands and
    • by pushing back against the claims of regional countries. 
  • East China Sea Tensions
    • In the East China Sea, China has aggressively contested Japan's control over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, leading to multiple crises.
    • Notable incidents include the arrest of a Chinese fishing captain in 2010 and Japan's nationalization of the islands in 2012.
    • Both countries took maximalist positions, and China responded by banning rare earth mineral exports to Japan.
    • While tensions have slightly eased in recent years, 2023 witnessed the highest level of Chinese Coast Guard activity near the islands, signaling ongoing disputes.
    • China's assertive foreign policy has strained its relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.
  • South China Sea Power Asymmetry
    • In the South China Sea, China's growing power has resulted in increased military presence and aggression towards claimant countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei.
    • With the world's largest navy by numbers, China has conducted "grey zone" operations that involve harassment tactics like ramming vessels, using water cannons, and military-grade lasers, short of initiating full-scale conflict.
  • Philippines-China Tensions
    • Tensions between China and the Philippines have intensified since 2022, especially around Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal.
    • China has repeatedly disrupted the Philippines' resupply missions. China's heavier and larger Coast Guard ships frequently ram smaller Philippine vessels, creating risks of miscalculation.
    • The growing frequency of these incidents, including clashes in mid-2024, reflects China's determination to assert its dominance.
  • Strategic Alignment and Legal Rejection
    • In July 2024, China conducted joint naval exercises with Russia in the South China Sea, showcasing its geopolitical alliances.
    • Despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejecting China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, China continues to dismiss the legal decision, maintaining its aggressive posture in the region.

Regional Responses to China's Aggression in the East and South China Seas

  • Strengthening Defence Capabilities
    • Countries in the Indo-Pacific have ramped up their military expenditures to counter China’s growing power.
    • Japan aims to double its defense budget by 2027, and the Philippines has acquired BrahMos anti-ship missiles from India as part of its defense buildup.
  • Active Responses at Sea
    • Since 2022, the Philippines has pushed back against China’s activities, publicizing incidents and filming Chinese vessels to shape perceptions.
    • They have also involved international journalists in documenting Chinese behavior in the West Philippine Sea, turning public diplomacy into a strategic tool.
  • Narrative Battle
    • Countries are engaging in a battle of narratives, using public diplomacy and media to highlight China’s aggressive actions and gain international support.
  • Strengthening Alliances with the U.S.
    • Allies like the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea have strengthened their defense ties with the U.S.
    • Cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines in the South China Sea has reached “historic levels,” with increased base access, training, and joint exercises.
    • A broader multilateral cooperation dubbed the ‘Squad’ involves the U.S., Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.
  • Trilateral Cooperation
    • The U.S., Japan, and South Korea have deepened their trilateral defense relationship, with their Defense Ministers meeting for the first time in July 2024.
    • They oppose any unilateral attempts to alter the status quo in the Indo-Pacific and emphasize adherence to international law, including freedom of navigation.