Why in news?

Bashar al-Assad, after 24 years as Syria’s President, has fled to Russia with his family following the collapse of his regime. A transitional government led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which previously controlled Idlib, has taken charge.

While many Syrians celebrate the end of Assad’s dictatorship, there is widespread anxiety about the future under HTS. Regionally, Turkey, a key supporter of HTS, seeks to expand its influence in West Asia, whereas Iran and Russia, Assad’s primary backers, face a significant setback. Meanwhile, Israel is exploiting the power vacuum in Syria to seize more territory.

What’s in today’s article?

• Reasons Behind the Fall of the Assad Regime
• Current Power Structure in Syria
• Geopolitical Stakes in Post-Assad Syria
• Uncertain Future for a Post-Assad Syria

Reasons Behind the Fall of the Assad Regime

• The Assad regime, which endured 13 years of civil war, collapsed within 12 days due to a combination of military, economic, and geopolitical factors.
• By 2017, with the support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, the regime regained much of its lost territory but failed to eliminate militant opposition, particularly the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammed al-Jolani.
  • Jolani, a former al-Qaeda leader, established a rebel administration in Idlib and planned a major offensive against Assad’s forces.
• Syria’s crumbling economy (worsened by an 87% GDP decline since 2011), Western sanctions, and the demoralization of underpaid soldiers further weakened Assad’s grip.
• Repeated Israeli airstrikes and shifting priorities of external allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah diminished the regime’s military strength.
• On November 27, 2024, HTS militants exploited this vulnerability, launching an offensive near Aleppo, triggering the rapid collapse of Assad’s regime.

Current Power Structure in Syria

• Syria is now divided among four main militant coalitions, with the HTS emerging as the most powerful.
• The HTS, claims to have severed ties with al-Qaeda and vows to respect Syria’s diversity, but its fighters are transnational jihadists.
• The HTS’s main ally is the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed militia formed from defected Syrian soldiers.
  • Together, they launched the November 27 offensive that contributed to Assad’s fall.
• Other groups include the Southern Front, a coalition of militias in southern Syria, some supported by Jordan.
• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, maintain relative autonomy in the Kurdish region and were previously backed by the U.S.
• Lastly, Alawite militias, linked to Assad’s sect, remain active in the coastal region, though the HTS has urged them to cut ties with the fallen regime.

Geopolitical Stakes in Post-Assad Syria

• Syria holds immense geopolitical significance, with major powers vying for influence.
• Russia relies on its naval base in Tartus, the only one outside former Soviet territory, and its air base to project force from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and beyond.
  • This strategic need partly drove Russia's 2015 intervention to support the Assad regime.
  • With Assad's fall, Russia’s primary focus shifts to securing these bases.
• For Iran, Syria was a critical ally in West Asia and a key link to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The regime's collapse threatens Iran’s supply routes and regional deterrence.
• Turkey, however, has emerged stronger. Having long sought Assad’s removal, Turkey strategically shifted to supporting its proxies, including the HTS-SNA coalition now in Damascus.
  • President Erdogan's calculated moves have expanded Turkish influence across Syria, extending it to the borders of Iraq, Jordan, and Israel, marking a significant geopolitical victory over Russia and Iran.

Uncertain Future for a Post-Assad Syria

• While the fall of Assad’s regime has raised hopes for a new Syria, the country’s turbulent history and current realities cast doubt on a peaceful transition.
• Militants like the HTS have promised inclusivity, rebuilding institutions, and welcoming refugees, but their Salafi-jihadist ideology and autocratic tendencies suggest otherwise.
• Rebuilding Syria requires demobilizing militias, a challenge the HTS lacks both resources and ideological clarity to address.
• Compounding the complexity are competing regional interests:
  • southern militias demand a share of power,
  • the Kurdish SDF seeks autonomy, and
  • Turkey views the SDF as a terrorist threat, with Turkish-backed militias already attacking them.
• Historical parallels, like post-Soviet Afghanistan, post-Gaddafi Libya, and post-Saddam Iraq, show how regime changes often lead to prolonged chaos.
• Without effective governance and reconciliation, Syria risks following a similar path of instability and conflict.