Context

• The transition from a population to a people is not merely a demographic process, but a deeply political transformation.
• In India, this transformation is mediated by tools such as the decadal census, which, while appearing to be a technical exercise in enumeration, in reality plays a profound role in shaping political identities, resource allocation, and representational structures.
• The upcoming 2027 Census promises to be a watershed moment in this regard, comparable in its long-term consequences to the COVID-19 pandemic that delayed the 2021 census, as it is poised to redraw the contours of Indian democracy through delimitation, caste enumeration, and political redistribution.

The Census: More Than a Count

• A census is conventionally understood as a comprehensive enumeration of the population, accounting for various demographic markers, including urban/rural residence, caste and tribe status, literacy, fertility, economic activity, and migration.
• However, the census does more than passively record reality; it actively shapes it.
• By categorising individuals into fixed groups, the census institutionalises identities and priorities, and in doing so, it helps constitute the political community, the people.
• Thus, the census is not a neutral exercise. As population trends shift, so too does the political landscape.
• For instance, increasing Hindi speakers in metropolitan cities or migration flows to southern India indicate changing demographic dynamics with potent political implications.

Political Demography and Parliamentary Representation

• At the heart of the 2027 Census lies the question of parliamentary representation.
• Article 81 of the Constitution mandates that parliamentary seats be redistributed after the first census following 2026.
• Due to the delay of the 2021 census, this redistribution, or delimitation, could take place earlier than expected, potentially in time for the 2029 general elections.
• With all data being captured digitally, the pace of this exercise is likely to be unprecedented.
• This raises a crucial question: What happens when population size becomes the sole criterion for representation?
• States with higher birth rates but slower economic growth, predominantly in northern and central India, stand to gain seats, while southern and western States, which have invested in population control and economic development, could lose influence.
• This paradox threatens to penalise states that have pursued responsible demographic policies and rewarded those that have not, thereby igniting regional tensions. The Centre has acknowledged the need for discussions, but clarity remains elusive.

Caste Enumeration, Social Politics and The Federal Compact and Revenue Sharing

• Caste Enumeration and Social Politics
  • One of the most transformative elements of Census 2027 is the proposed comprehensive caste census, the first since 1931.
  • The counting of all castes, beyond Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), is expected to dramatically alter the political discourse.
  • Caste identities, long embedded in India's social fabric, are poised to become even more central to resource claims and political mobilisation.
  • This development is likely to rekindle debates over the 50% reservation ceiling, a landmark constraint that many political groups seek to overturn.
  • Moreover, this census aligns with the constitutional push for one-third reservation for women in legislative bodies, further adding complexity to the social reorganisation of political power.
  • Combined with the possibility of simultaneous elections to Parliament and State Assemblies, these changes suggest a far-reaching restructuring of democratic representation.
• The Federal Compact and Revenue Sharing
  • Alongside these demographic and electoral transformations, the Sixteenth Finance Commission, due to submit its recommendations by October 2025, is expected to revisit the formula for revenue sharing between the Centre and the States.
  • Many States have expressed dissatisfaction with the criteria used by previous Commissions, especially when these have appeared to favour population size over developmental performance.
  • As with parliamentary representation, the question is whether population-heavy but economically weaker states should receive a disproportionately higher share of national revenues.
  • The overlapping timelines of the census, delimitation, and the Finance Commission’s recommendations underscore a moment of pivotal renegotiation in India’s federal compact.

Political Strategies and National Identity

• These demographic transitions are not occurring in a political vacuum.
• The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), with its centralising and majoritarian vision, sees in these changes both a challenge and an opportunity.
• A population-based delimitation could consolidate its power in regions where it is strongest, primarily in the north and central belt.
• At the same time, by bringing gender and caste into the delimitation debate, the BJP may seek to transcend narrow regional rivalries and construct a broader national coalition based on identity categories that cut across states.
• The Congress and Left parties, traditionally national in outlook but now weakened in the heartland, are also seeking to reclaim space by aligning with demands for caste-based justice.
• Yet, whether they can compete with the BJP’s organisational strength and ideological clarity in navigating this demographic moment remains uncertain.
• The political use of census categories, from caste to language to migration status, is now central to all parties’ electoral strategies.

Conclusion

• Census 2027 is more than a decadal statistical exercise; it is a political event of generational importance. It will reconfigure how Indians are counted, represented, governed, and resourced.
• From delimitation to caste enumeration, from revenue sharing to identity formation, this census sits at the intersection of administration and politics, demography and democracy.
• It will shape not only the size and shape of constituencies but also the meaning of citizenship and the nature of national identity in 21st-century India.
• As the nation prepares for this defining moment, it must confront the tensions inherent in balancing demographic realities, federal equity, and democratic fairness.