Context

• India, the world’s most populous country, has long held hopes of reaping a demographic dividend, sustained by its burgeoning youth population.
• For decades, demographers and policy planners have anticipated that this window of opportunity, where the working-age population significantly outnumbers dependents, would remain open for a limited time.
• However, recent trends suggest that this demographic advantage may be short-lived.
• Declining school enrolment rates over the past decade signal the beginning of the end of this period, suggesting that India may age before it becomes wealthy.

The Data Behind the Decline

• The Ministry of Education’s release of the Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 school years raised alarms.
• The data revealed a 15.5 million decrease in school enrolment since the 2018-19 academic year, a 6% drop that has caused considerable concern.
• Official sources attributed this decline to improvements in data collection, particularly the integration of Aadhaar numbers to prevent multiple school enrolments.
• While this explanation may seem plausible, a deeper analysis of enrolment data spanning the past decade paints a far more troubling picture.
• The decline is not merely a result of more accurate data; it reflects a systematic demographic shift.
• Over the past ten years, school enrolment has dropped by 24.51 million, or 9.45%. Elementary education, which has been free and compulsory under the Right to Education (RTE) Act since 2009, has seen a particularly sharp decline of 18.7 million (13.45%).
• Conversely, senior secondary enrolment has increased, reflecting a shift in the educational landscape, but the overall trend points to a demographic transition that signals an end to the country’s demographic dividend.

The Role of Government and Private Schools, Demographic Trends and Their Impact on Enrolment

• The Role of Government and Private Schools
  • A closer look at the enrolment figures across different school types further illustrates the scope of the issue.
  • Government and government-aided schools, which serve more than 65% of the population, have experienced the largest declines.
  • Enrolment in government schools dropped by 19.89 million (13.8%), and in government-aided schools, by 4.95 million (16.41%).
  • This decline has been especially acute at the elementary level, with government schools losing 21.78 million (18.31%) enrollees and government-aided schools losing 3.85 million (24.34%).
  • Private unaided schools have bucked the trend, registering a modest increase in total enrolment by 1.61 million (2.03%).
  • However, this growth has been concentrated in senior secondary levels, where enrolment increased by 1.41 million (15.55%).
  • Although private schools have seen some growth, they too are not immune to the broader demographic shifts impacting India’s educational landscape.
• Demographic Trends and Their Impact on Enrolment
  • The decline in school enrolment is closely tied to demographic changes.
  • Over the past decade, the school-going population in the age group of 6-17 years has decreased by 17.3 million (5.78%).
  • Notably, the population of children in the 6-13 and 14-15 age groups, which are critical to elementary and secondary school enrolment, has also shrunk by 18.7 million (9.12%) and 2.17 million (4.35%), respectively.
  • The correlation between the decreasing school-age population and the declining enrolment is stark, with demographic factors explaining 60.36% of the drop in school enrolment.
  • The trend is further corroborated by the reduction in the number of schools across the country.
  • From 1.55 million schools in 2017-18, the number has dropped to 1.47 million in 2023-24, a decrease of 5.1%.
  • This reflects the country’s declining fertility rate, which stood at 2.01 in 2022, below the replacement level of 2.10, indicating that India’s population growth is slowing.

The Social and Economic Implications

• The shrinking school enrolment figures point to a broader demographic shift in India.
• The country is experiencing a transition where the youthful population bulge is gradually shifting to older age groups, with fewer children entering the school system.
• This shift will soon affect not only elementary and secondary education but also higher education, as fewer young people enter the workforce.
• India’s experience mirrors that of many developed nations, where a shrinking working-age population poses significant economic challenges.
• As India faces the transition to a shrinking workforce, the consequences of this demographic shift will be felt across all sectors.
• The demographic dividend, which has been critical in driving India’s economic growth, may soon fade.
• This will leave the country with an aging population before it has had a chance to achieve the wealth and prosperity typically associated with a demographic dividend. 

Conclusion

• India’s declining school enrolment is not merely a result of improved data collection methods; it is indicative of a more profound demographic change - The country is nearing the end of its window to capitalise on its youth population.
• Unless the forthcoming Census reveals a different demographic trend, India’s demographic dividend may have already peaked.
• With a shrinking youth population and a decline in school enrolment, India faces the challenge of preparing for an aging population at a time when it has yet to fully realise its economic potential.
• The coming years will be crucial as India grapples with the reality of an aging society and the social and economic consequences that will follow.