Context

• On June 13, 2025, the geopolitical theatre of West Asia witnessed a dramatic escalation: Israel’s Rising Lion operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.
• In a rare convergence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, arch-enemies bound by ideological hostility, both acknowledged the historical gravity of the moment.
• While Netanyahu proclaimed it a decisive moment in Israel’s history, Khamenei responded with apocalyptic certainty, declaring that the Zionist regime sealed for itself a bitter and painful destiny.
• This event, steeped in ancient enmity and modern strategy, may redefine regional power equations and trigger repercussions with global dimensions.

Historical Continuity, Strategic Calculus and the Shadow of U.S. Involvement

• Historical Continuity and Strategic Calculus
  • This confrontation is not an isolated episode but rather the latest iteration in a 26-century-old Jewish, Persian conflict, stretching back to the destruction of the First Jewish Temple by Babylon in 586 BCE.
  • The current iteration, however, is shaped by 21st-century strategic technologies, proxy wars, and asymmetric power dynamics.
  • Israel’s attack appears meticulously planned, leveraging two years of confrontation with Iranian proxies, the weakening of Iran’s first line of defence in Syria, and the technological sophistication of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).
  • Israel’s blitzkrieg began with coordinated airstrikes, reportedly involving over 200 jets and hitting more than 100 targets.
  • Key Iranian military and scientific figures were assassinated, including the Iranian Armed Forces’ Chief of Staff and senior nuclear scientists.
  • The operation was not a spontaneous act of aggression but a culmination of geopolitical manoeuvres, assassinations, and softening-up tactics across Iran’s strategic frontiers.
• The Shadow of U.S. Involvement
  • Although the United States and its allies have officially disavowed direct involvement, circumstantial evidence points to covert support.
  • The withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under Trump’s first term and the reinstatement of sanctions significantly weakened Iran.
  • In Trump’s second term, renewed economic pressure, including efforts to collapse oil prices by influencing Saudi Arabia’s OPEC+ decisions, was clearly aimed at strangling Iran’s oil-based revenue streams.
  • Simultaneously, heavy U.S. bombardment of the Houthis, an Iranian ally, suggested a coordinated effort to reduce Iranian strategic depth.
  • Notably, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s resolution on June 12 condemning Iran’s nuclear non-compliance, passed for the first time in two decades, may have served as diplomatic cover for Israel’s military action.
  • Even the unexplained overtures toward Pakistan, sharing a long border with Iran, hint at a broader encirclement strategy orchestrated by Israel’s Western allies.

Arab Reactions and the Risk of Regional Conflagration

• Reactions from the Sunni Arab world are marked by ambivalence.
• While they harbour deep-seated suspicion of Iran’s Shia leadership, they are equally wary of Israeli militarism and fear regional blowback.
• Threats such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, covert retaliatory attacks, and possible Shia uprisings in Sunni-majority states loom large.
• These conditions could also create fertile ground for the resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, exploiting regional instability for recruitment and operations.
• Though Israeli officials have portrayed the operation as a limited and precise attempt to defang Iran’s strategic capabilities, regional observers warn that wars rarely follow intended scripts.
• If the conflict spirals, Iran may retaliate not only against Israel but also against perceived Western accomplices, possibly dragging the U.S. into a direct confrontation and catalysing a fundamental reshaping of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Implications for the Global Economy and U.S. Policy

• The global economy stands exposed to the vagaries of the Israel–Iran conflict.
• Prolonged hostilities could disrupt oil supplies, fuel inflation, and send shockwaves through financial markets already stressed by regional conflicts and protectionist trade measures.
• Far from confirming former President Trump’s claims of ending ‘endless wars,’ a drawn-out confrontation could instead stain his administration with another costly entanglement.
• Moreover, if Iran survives the initial assault and mounts an effective response, it could galvanise domestic support and undermine Israel’s doctrine of short, surgical pre-emption.
• Rather than neutralising Iran, the operation could embolden hardliners and solidify anti-Western sentiment throughout the Global South.

India’s Strategic Stakes

• India, with over nine million citizens in the Gulf region, derives nearly half of its remittances and oil imports from West Asia.
• The country’s exports, energy security, and investments are deeply intertwined with regional stability.
• Any escalation poses a direct threat to India’s economic and human interests.
• Thus, New Delhi is likely to hope for a swift de-escalation, though it may have little influence over the course of events.

Conclusion

• In hindsight, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, rooted in a quest for regime survival and strategic deterrence, may have yielded the opposite result; having spent upwards of $100 billion in pursuit of nuclear capability, Iran now faces unprecedented isolation and destruction.
• Its pursuit of a deterrent has instead made it a target, illustrating the paradox of security through armament.
• The conflict between Israel and Iran marks not only a flashpoint in Middle Eastern affairs but also a turning point in global geopolitics.
• Its consequences, intended or otherwise, will reverberate far beyond the region, influencing global security, diplomacy, and economic stability for years to come.