Context

• Two weeks after PM Modi's visit to Russia, the U.S. and Europe are still reacting to the evident warmth between Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• This visit amidst the ongoing Ukraine war drew criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and disappointment from U.S. officials.
• Despite India asserting its freedom of choice, it has attempted to reassure that its fundamental worldview remains unchanged.
• However, PM Modi’s visit to Russia carries significant implications, suggesting that something may indeed have shifted.

The Significance of PM’s Russia Visit and Assessment on Conflict in Ukraine

• Timing and Significance of the Visit
  • The timing of PM Modi's visit to Russia is significant, occurring two years after the onset of the conflict in Ukraine.
  • This delay in direct engagement with Russia post-invasion reflects a nuanced approach to a complex geopolitical landscape.
  • Initially, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the PM abstained from the annual India-Russia summits in 2022 and 2023.
  • During this period, India's public stance was encapsulated in PM Modi's statement to Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan in September 2022: this era is not of war.
  • This declaration indicated India's disapproval of the conflict without directly condemning Russia, maintaining a delicate balance in international relations.
• Gradual Transformation of the Conflict
  • As the war in Ukraine progressed, the nature of the conflict transformed. The Russian military faced severe setbacks in the initial stages, including a failed offensive on Kyiv and a significant underestimation of Ukrainian resistance.
  • President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian defences demonstrated resilience, defying Russian expectations.
  • The conflict also saw a desperate Russian draft targeting the youth, leading many Moscow elites to flee the country.
  • Additionally, the Russian military suffered massive casualties and questions arose regarding the effectiveness of Russian military hardware against the advanced equipment supplied to Ukraine by NATO countries.
  • Despite these challenges, Russia managed to stabilise its position, particularly in the eastern regions of Ukraine that it occupied and later integrated into its territory through constitutional amendments.
  • This strategic entrenchment has allowed Russia to maintain control over these areas, creating a de facto situation on the ground.

Factors Behind India’s Decision to Re-Engage with Russia

• U.S. Political Dynamics and Strategic Calculations
  • New Delhi seems to have factored in the political dynamics in Washington.
  • Even before U.S. President Joe Biden announced his decision not to seek re-election, there were indications that his potential challenger, former President Donald Trump, might adopt a less confrontational stance towards Moscow and reduce U.S. support for Kyiv.
  • This anticipated shift in U.S. policy further influences India's strategic calculations.
• An Acknowledgement of the End of Worst Phase for Russia
  • Modi’s visit to Russia can thus be interpreted as an acknowledgment that Russia has endured the worst phases of the conflict and that it is now prudent for India to re-engage with Moscow to prevent further deterioration of bilateral ties.
  • The language used in the India-Russia joint statement during Modi's visit reflects subtle shifts in India's position.
  • The reference to the conflict around Ukraine rather than in Ukraine subtly acknowledges Russian territorial claims.
  • Furthermore, the joint statement's appreciation for peace proposals "in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter" signals a convergence of views between India and Russia on the framework for resolving the conflict.

India’s Position at the United Nations on Ukraine War

• India's consistent refusal to criticise Russia for the war is evident in its voting record at the UN.
• India has abstained from over 20 votes condemning Russia, including the most recent one on July 11 at the UN General Assembly, which called on Russia to ceasefire following missile attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, including a children's hospital.
• Despite high-level engagements with Ukraine, such as meetings with President Zelenskyy and a visit by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to India in March 2024, New Delhi has been cautious in its responses to Kyiv's requests.
• For instance, India has hesitated to allow Indian companies to provide construction, medical devices, and telecom infrastructure to the Ukrainian government, limiting its assistance to humanitarian aid.
• This restraint indicates India's unwillingness to provoke Russia, highlighting the delicate balance it seeks to maintain in its foreign policy.

Geopolitical and Geo-Economics Factors Behind India’s Re-Engagement with Russia

• Keeping Russia Away from China
  • The geopolitical signalling of the visit extends beyond India-Russia relations.
  • By visiting Moscow shortly after cancelling a trip to Astana, Kazakhstan, for the SCO Summit, PM Modi demonstrated a willingness to forgo a joint appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping but not with Mr. Putin.
  • This contrasts with western messaging, which urges China to reduce its support for Russia.
  • India's priority remains keeping Russia on its side amid continuing tensions with China at the Line of Actual Control, despite its partnerships with western countries in the Indo-Pacific.
• A Reminder to the West: India Has Other Options
  • The U.S.'s recent actions have also given New Delhi pause. The Biden administration has forged AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) for nuclear submarines.
  • The US engaged Quad Plus countries such as New Zealand, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines, and hosted the "AP-4" (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan) during the NATO summit in Washington, coinciding with the Modi-Putin summit.
  • New Delhi risks limiting its utility to Indo-Pacific partners compared to these other groups by refusing to make the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, U.S.) a strategic concept.
  • Whether the Modi government can convince its partners to infuse new energy into the Quad remains to be seen, with a Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting and a possible Quad summit later this year in New Delhi.
  • In this context, the Russia visit asserted India's strategic autonomy and reminded that India has other options.
• The Geo-Economics Factor
  • PM Modi's Russian visit must be considered in its geo-economic context.
  • Regardless of battlefield outcomes in Ukraine, western sanctions against Russia will likely persist, and so will India's supply of discounted Russian oil.
  • These imports have significantly boosted India-Russia trade, growing by 66% to $65 billion last year and another 20% in the first quarter of 2024.
  • Sustaining this growth requires developing payment mechanisms for oil imports.
  • The Modi-Putin summit addressed this issue with action items in nine specific areas, prioritising circumventing western sanctions.
• Energy Supplies and Commodity Exports
  • The joint statement on cooperation in Russia's Far East aims to increase energy supplies and commodity exports using the yet-to-be-operationalised Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor.
  • These measures will help rationalise the trade imbalance and develop mutual investments, such as Rosneft's controlling stake in the Gujarat-based Vadinar refinery and Indian public sector units' stakes in Russian oil fields.
  • Despite financial implications, the U.S. and Europe have avoided sanctioning these transactions, accepting Vadinar-processed Russian oil products as Indian products.
  • New Delhi surmises that more such deals could be safely pursued in the future.

Conclusion

• These calculations could be disrupted by developments in the Ukraine war, the Russian economy's struggle with sanctions, and post-election shifts in the U.S.
• However, the enduring message from PM Modi's Moscow visit is the solid bet his government has placed on India-Russia ties.
• This visit underscores India's strategic autonomy, highlights its geopolitical manoeuvring, and reinforces its geo-economic strategies, ensuring that India's relationship with Russia remains a cornerstone of its foreign policy.